The 2017 MLS SuperDraft is inching closer, as the adidas MLS Player Combine is set to kick off this weekend and teams will be flocking to Los Angeles, California, to get a closer look at all the prospects.
Every MLS team will be looking for players that can help contribute to their causes this year while also keeping an eye on the future, hoping a player they draft can develop into a starter down the line. You can check out your team's possible pick in Matt Doyle's Mock Draft.
With the introduction of Homegrown Players, a higher salary budget and other player acquisition mechanisms, the vast majority of MLS teams have stopped relying on the SuperDraft as a means to bringing in Day 1 starters.
But that doesn't mean that you still can't find these types of players in the SuperDraft. Last year's No. 3 pick by the Philadelphia Union, Keegan Rosenberry, was the only outfield player to play every minute in 2016. He was joined by New York City FC's Jack Harrison and Chicago Fire's Brandon Vincent as top 10 picks who were able to make an immediate impact in their rookie seasons.
Going back to 2011, when teams first played a 34-game schedule, the minutes played by top 10 picks in their rookie seasons fell off every season before last season's crop.
While these numbers took an uptick in 2016, it remains to be seen if that is a blip or a trend that can continue. Part of the reason we could see these numbers go back to the trend prior to the 2016 is due to the fact that many college players are signing Homegrown Player contracts before they even reach the SuperDraft. This season alone we have seen four college players sign Homegrown contracts before the SuperDraft: Alex Crognale (Columbus Crew SC), Reggie Cannon (FC Dallas), Jose Hernandez (Real Salt Lake) and Nick Lima (San Jose Earthquakes).
With talent being taken out, the trend of diminishing minutes is seen more strongly throughout the entire SuperDraft. This was even the case in 2016, where only two players picked outside the top nine played more than 500 minutes (Jonathan Campbell, Michael Salazar).
Admittedly, it would be better to have a larger sample than the last six seasons, but the difference between 2011’s draft class and 2016’s is rather startling.
To try and keep it as uniform as possible, the numbers used below were for the first four rounds of every draft, which for some years includes the Supplemental Draft.
A problem with the above bar chart is that the number of total players drafted from 2011-16 has fluctuated a bit. In 2011, there were 72 picks. In 2016, there were 81, while there were 84 in 2015. From 2012-14, there was the same number of draft picks: 76.
The chart below averages out the number of minutes played by SuperDraft selections, per capita, in their first season. There are some minor changes, but the big gap between 2011 and 2016 remains the same.
The SuperDraft is exciting for every fan, as your team adds a new player that will hopefully help your team win an MLS Cup some day. But you should temper your expectations for immediate contributions in 2017 if your team is picking outside the top 10.
