All three MLS Player Combine doubleheaders are in the books. And now all eyes turn to Minnesota United, the team that holds the No. 1 pick in Friday's SuperDraft (live stream on MLSsoccer.com at 3 pm ET).
What should head coach Adrian Heath and sporting director Manny Lagos (pictured below) do with the top selection?
When you have the No. 1 pick, it feels like everyone wants to talk to you. You are in control. I know what it's like because I was in that spot in 2009 with the Seattle Sounders, who at the time were about to enter the league as an expansion side.
And as an expansion team, you need players -- even ahead of allocation money, unless you can parlay that cash into a player. So Minnesota will have to answer this basic question: Do they see a definite No. 1 guy who can help them right out of the gate like a Steve Zakuani (No. 1 in 2009), a Maurice Edu (No. 1 pick in 2007) or a Cyle Larin (No. 1 pick in 2015)? Is that Abu Danladi (UCLA), Jeremy Ebobisse (Duke), Julian Gressel (Providence College) or Zeiko Lewis (Boston College)?
If you feel that guy is there, you might very well decide to keep the pick. If you're not convinced, then you want to try to turn that top pick into two picks in the 1st Round. Or you can parlay that No. 1 spot into a package for another 1st Round pick, plus a current MLS player. Either way, the objective becomes: Can you turn one draft pick into two starters with the right deal?
Mind Games
If you hold the No. 1 pick, it's important to determine the player who most clubs consider to be the top prospect. You need to make everyone believe that that is the player you will take with the top selection. Unless other teams make a trade with you, they will have no chance at him.
You want to talk to teams that enter the draft without a 1st Round pick. In the 2017 SuperDraft those clubs are: the LA Galaxy, NYCFC, Orlando City and the Philadelphia Union. Those teams might want to get in the draft game so bad that you can work out a good trade involving a player on their roster. Bob Bradley once turned Chivas USA's No. 1 pick into two starters: Jason Hernandez and Sacha Kljestan.
Timing is everything. You want to wait as long as possible before you agree to a trade. Entertain all the offers you can. The closer you get to the draft, the more anxious and generous some teams get. That might mean waiting until the morning of the SuperDraft. But you also have to be prepared for the eventuality that this plan could backfire.
Trading Down
Just in case any proposed deals turn sour, Minnesota will have to be prepared with the player they're taking at No. 1. They should also be looking to predict who the other teams immediately behind them will take. Is there someone on Minnesota's target list who might be available to Heath and Lagos at a lower 1st Round spot, which affords them the opportunity to trade down?
If I'm Minnesota, I'm talking to each of the teams with a Top 10 pick. But you especially want to talk to Atlanta United (2nd and 8th), the Chicago Fire (3rd and 11th) and Columbus Crew SC (5th and 9th) since there's the potential for a trade that might get you two picks for your No. 1. Seattle has two picks as well (16th and 22nd), but they are picking too late in the first round.
There's lots to ponder for Minnesota and I'm sure one or two members of their technical staff will have lost a little sleep the night before the SuperDraft. They need to stay alert so no one takes advantage.
Ultimately, each team will have different evaluations of the players available. In my book, Danladi is the best prospect in this year's draft. But my sense is that he will either be a big success in MLS like Zakuani or Larin, or he won't have any impact at all like Danny Mwanga (No. 1 pick in 2010). In my opinion, there will be nothing in between with Danladi.
And that's the draft for you in a nutshell: Despite all the best intentions and best-laid plans, anything can happen. Happy Draft Day!
