And so here it is, the final weekend of the 2018 MLS regular season – the highest-scoring regular season in nearly 20 years. I like goals, so this has been a lot of fun for me.
What's at stake during Decision Day presented by AT&T? The final playoff spot in each conference, the Supporters' Shield, homefield advantage basically everywhere (but especially the top of the West), perhaps the Landon Donovan MLS MVP award, and the Valderrama Award (I just made that up but from now on that's what I'm calling the single-season assist king. Please join me in pushing this and together we can make fetch happen).
Let's dive in and go for one last swim around the league:
Chicago Fire vs. D.C. United
4:30 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & streaming info
At Stake for Chicago: Pride and jobs. This, from Jose Luis Sanchez Pando's look at the Fire this week in the Chicago Tribune, is pretty stark:
The cruel reality is that, aside from only eight players (Richard Sanchez, Dax McCarty, Aleksandar Katai, Mo Adams, Nicolas Del Grecco, Grant Lillard, Djordje Mihailovic and Nemanja Nikolic), the rest of the roster and coaching staff will be out of a contract at the end of December and, given how poor the season has been, it would not be strange to see a complete clearing out of the squad with several departures.
That doesn't mean those will be the only eight guys who return, since the team has a ton of guys with contract options for 2019, but it speaks to just how hard a reboot might be coming this offseason. For everyone.
At Stake for D.C.: Their second-half run has been remarkable, and they finished the first job last weekend by once again taking three home points and officially qualifying for the playoffs.
What they haven't had to do much of since July is leave home, and for a team with a 1-9-6 road record this year, that's obviously a good thing. And that brings us to the second job: Win this one and they'll get to play the Knockout Round game down at the Southwest Waterfront District. Lose, and they're definitely going on the road on short rest. A draw means they have to get some help from NYCFC in order to get that home game.
United have been truly awesome to watch over the last four months, but it's all come with a caveat. Win here and that caveat goes away at least a little bit.
By the way...
This team is so much more than just the Wayne Rooney/Lucho Acosta show.
NYCFC vs. Philadelphia Union
4:30 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & streaming info
At Stake for NYCFC: Homefield advantage, their identity, a proper farewell for David Villa (maybe), and... are those whispers about Dome's job? Too soon for that, but the fanbase is really, really unhappy, and I get it.
This team, which was justifiably considered one of the league's best at the start of the year, and spent the first five months of the season somewhere amongst the top three or four in the Shield race, has gone 2-6-4 since the end of July. Injuries have played a part, but just a part not the part. The fact is that NYCFC have come unglued in terms of how and where they press, what they do when they win the ball back, and how to even build from the back – the most crucial and definitive part of their identity under Patrick Vieira.
They look nothing like a contender in any sense of the word, and everything like a team that will get worked in the Knockout Round if they have to play anywhere but Yankee Stadium.
All they need to claim a home game is a point. Villa's healthy and Yangel Herrera is back for probably 30 minutes, and Ismael Tajouri-Shradi's good to go. No excuses here.
At Stake for Philly: Homefield advantage is the big one. If Philly win this they leapfrog NYCFC and finish in third place. It would be a testament to how well they've played since mid-May, and a validation of both head coach Jim Curtin's trust in the kids as well as the organizational philosophy. And it's clear that these kids are very, very good:
That kind of play out of the back is really useful on most fields. Beware of it in the Bronx, though.
Here's the thing: Philly have played five truly big games in their last six outings. They started out with two excellent wins (at Seattle, and home to SKC). Then Houston put them in the blender in the U.S. Open Cup final. Then they came out of that and got a credible draw at Columbus. And then last week they played really well against RBNY... but found a way to lose.
The Union are good and talented and, as befitting a team with a lot of young players and no real match-winning goalscorer, still leave a lot of results on the table. Win this one and the narrative continues to nudge a little bit more in the direction they want.
By the way, the Valderrama Award will almost certainly be won by either United's Acosta or the Union's Borek Dockal, both of whom are on 17 assists for the season.
Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United
4:30 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & streaming info
At Stake for Toronto FC: Nothing but pride, really. I'm pretty sure they don't want to see the Five Stripes waltz into BMO Field and 1) break the single-season points record TFC set just last year, and 2) claim the Shield. That would, I imagine, feel pretty bad.
At Stake for Atlanta United: The Shield, and a good chunk of how we talk about the Tata Martino era. These Atlanta teams of the last two years are going to be remembered with real fondness – they played fun and fast and relatively flexible soccer, brought in some of the most exciting new talent anybody's ever imported, and won a lot of games in style. But will they be remembered as champions?
Win the Shield (which is IMO the very best major trophy to win, because it means you gave your fans eight months of great soccer), and the answer is "yes." Anything less than that here and suddenly the playoffs are that more pressure-packed. And it's got to be said: Tata's teams have a long and sad history of failing to take the last hurdle.
Atlanta are going to be without Miguel Almiron again in this one, which means they're not going to be as explosive driving out of midfield with the ball on their foot. They're going to have to be tidier and more creative in possession, and when they do use the ball well...
... they need better than that from Josef Martinez. The Golden Boot winner has scored in just one of his last seven games, and you could argue that the MVP award is on the line here. If he posts another zero, and Atlanta blow their 28-3 lead in the Shield race, and Zlatan leads the Galaxy into the playoffs, it's at least a debate as to who the MVP is. Two month ago it wasn't.
RBNY vs. Orlando City
4:30 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & streaming info
At Stake for RBNY: Depending upon how the Atlanta games out, they've got a shot at their third Shield in six years. And if they win this (which they absolutely should), they've got at worst the second-highest single-season points total in league history.
Beyond that: Even in the playoffs I'd expect certain teams to bunker against this RBNY bunch, and why not? Bunkering has historically worked against them in two-legged series, and we have enough data points in that regard to be pretty sure this information is not flukey. So against an Orlando side that played a 3-6-1 (or maybe a 5-4-1) last week to claim just their second win since May, and will probably do the same again, and will do so deep in their own defensive end... this is good practice, right? This is something that the Red Bulls can use to shore up what's been a traditional weak spot.
I wouldn't be shocked if, at some point, Chris Armas brings on a second forward next to Bradley Wright-Phillips. Just to see.
At Stake for Orlando City: Jobs, certainly. You don't go straight into the toilet for 70 percent of the season and not suffer some sort of professional comeuppance. Closing the year with two straight wins would potentially mitigate a bit of that.
There's also the chance to inch further toward having some definable style or philosophy. The 3-6-1/5-4-1 they played last week is an inherently defensive formation (especially when trotting out multiple d-mids as is James O'Connor's wont), but at times in the second half it looked a lot like an attacking 3-4-3.
Columbus Crew SC vs. Minnesota United
4:30 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & streaming info
At Stake for Columbus: A trip to the playoffs. While they might get help from New England, they absolutely should not count on the Revs in any possible way. Crew SC need to treat this like a must-win game, and also as a should-win game. They've gone 2-4-3 in their last nine, nobody can score from open play, the defense has suddenly become a bit fragile, and the Gregg Berhalter-to-the-USMNT rumors are probably playing some sort of role re: focus and distractions.
You are still professionals. You are still playing a home game against an inferior team. If Columbus don't make the playoffs it will be a choke job akin to FC Dallas last season.
At Stake for Minnesota: Nothing really – the Loons' braintrust has made it clear that almost everybody's going to be back next year – except maybe proof of concept:
Part of being smart about building a team is understanding that it's not just a collection of talent, but rather a collection of partnerships. So far that really, really hasn't worked out with MNUFC's new Designated Players.
By the way, if MNUFC lose 2-0 they'll finish this year with 36 points, 47 goals scored and 70 conceded. Last year they finished with 36 points, 47 goals scored and 70 conceded.
New England Revolution vs. Montreal Impact
4:30 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & streaming info
At Stake for New England: Take it away, Brad Friedel:
- "[This game is] important for a lot of reasons. Montreal has a lot to play for, so I think it's only right we give maximum effort to make sure the final league standings are a true, accurate reading of what they should be."
- "I think the second reason is players are still playing for their positions next year, and playing for contracts next year. And performances, especially like that first half against Real Salt Lake, won't help their chances."
- "That's another thing. The players really need to put on a show for the fans. We were in a great position and came unstuck right after the LA Galaxy game, and that's not something the fans deserve. They spend a lot of time and a lot of money coming out to watch us play, so I think it's only fitting the players put in maximum effort and try to get three points."
Friedel talks in bullet points and I respect the hell out of that. It also needs reiterating that, over the past two seasons, the Revs have spent more on their backline and defensive midfield than anyone outside of the Galaxy, and of the six big-budget players they've brought in, only one (Michael Mancienne) is currently a starter. And he's not 100 percent looking the part.
So there's a bunch of proof-of-concept stuff applying here, just as it is in Minnesota.
At Stake for Montreal: Potentially – if Columbus trip up – a playoff spot. And it wouldn't be entirely undeserved, as Montreal have gone 11-5-4 in regular season play since the start of June. It took a while for Remi Garde to figure out what he was doing, but eventually he mashed the "bunker and counter!" button and it largely worked.
But there's no guarantee they'll be able to ride this into next season. Usually if a team discovers itself in the second half of Year A, then you can count on them coming out with that identity and riding it at the start of Year B. Even if they miss the playoffs I expect the Impact will try to do that in 2019 (I don't think there will be a ton of turnover on the staff), but this is the league's oldest team. Seven of the starters are over 30, two are over 35, and only one is under the age of 25. As individuals most of these guys are as good as they're ever going to be, and are pretty firmly on the downslope.
That somehow doesn't yet include Ignacio Piatti, who's having his best year yet. But he turns 34 before next season kicks off, and eventually Father Time's going to take a round from him.
If Montreal get the job done here, and get some luck courtesy of the Loons, and get into the playoffs, they are absolutely terrifying and potentially bracket-busting darkhorses. If not, 2019's an open question.
Sporting KC vs. LAFC
4:30 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & streaming info
At Stake for Sporting KC: The view from the top. We've beaten to death the fact that SKC have been eliminated on the road in the Knockout Round for four straight years, and that's because SKC have been beaten to death on the road in the Knockout Round for four straight years. If you don't want us to talk about it, don't play in that game.
Well, they're for sure not going on the road in the Knockout Round – last week's results made that official. Now they can go one step further and, with a home win against a good team on the final day of the season, claim the No. 1 spot in the West and homefield advantage at least until MLS Cup (should they make it that far).
SKC had their best win of the season last week, pounding FC Dallas3-0 in Dallas. Khiry Shelton was at the heart of it:
Do it again and the starting No. 9 job is certainly his. Maybe it should be anyway.
This is not a given, though. SKC are a middling 5-6-4 against playoff teams (counting RSL and Columbus as in, with the Galaxy and Impact as out).
At Stake for LAFC: All of the above, more or less. LAFC have had a remarkable maiden voyage, winning with goals and style and possession and flair and set-pieces and overlapping fullbacks and wingers coming from every angle under the sun. It's been fun.
They've also been sloppy and naive defending leads basically throughout the year, and have given squandered 15 points worth of results, including last week's 2-0 lead over Vancouver that turned into a dispiriting 2-2 home draw. That should not happen if you're a contender.
Even if things go super wrong they're not going to drop below fourth place, as the goal differential between them and the Timbers is too great. Still... show us something here. Go gut out a result.
Colorado Rapids vs. FC Dallas
4:30 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & streaming info
At Stake for Colorado: Jobs for the players, certainly. There's going to be a bunch of roster turnover yet again, and at least Anthony Hudson has shown some foresight in finally getting the kids onto the field over the past month (Cole Bassett has looked unusually calm and competent at central midfield for a 17-year-old).
My guess is that, regardless of the final score here, Hudson and GM Padraig Smith are both probably safe. Closing the year with three straight results, though – a win at Minnesota, a draw at San Jose and then at least a point here – while playing the kids would be something tangible to build upon.
They need to do a better job with their offseason scouting this year, though.
At Stake for FC Dallas: They're 6-6-4 in the second half of the season and they've scored one open play goal since September 1. At times they look pretty good, but then that last touch...
You're totally justified in blaming the forwards and wingers for not finishing. But the underlying numbers aren't great, either, as both expected goals and expected assists are down. They're not creating as many chances, and they're not finding as many chances, and they not finishing anything.
The defense has mostly carried the load, but we saw them start to break down last week. If they break down again this week (unlikely against the league's worst attack), Dallas could drop all the way to fifth and find themselves opening the playoffs on short rest in Providence Park. Obviously that's not what an ideal way to open the playoffs.
Bear all of the above in mind, but also: That lovely throughball in the highlight to start the break-out? That was from Santiago Mosquera. The DP winger has been working under the radar this season, but since earning his way into the lineup in late August he's been mostly pretty good, a hell of a lot of fun, and an occasional match-winner.
Vancouver Whitecaps vs. Portland Timbers
4:30 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & streaming info
At Stake for Vancouver: Two years ago on Decision Day Vancouver ruined Portland's collective life, beating them 4-1 and knocking them out of the playoffs. In 2017 they went to Portland and lost 2-1, allowing their rivals to top the West. What will happen in Round 3?
Now, the Timbers can't top the West, nor can they fall out of the playoffs. But at the very least Vancouver have a chance to inflict some misery here.
Beyond that, there are jobs on the line. We've already seen Carl Robinson part ways with the club, and a whole host of the players he's brought in over the past few years have mostly underachieved. A bunch of them won't be back.
Neither will Alphonso Davies, who definitely did not underachieve. 'Caps fans should cheer and sing their heads off for him for the full 90, and he should get an 88th minute curtain call no matter what the scoreline is at the time.
At Stake for Portland: Homefield advantage if either Dallas or Seattle manage to biff it. The Timbers are a better road team than in recent years, but 11-2-5 (Providence Park) is a lot better than 4-7-5 (elsewhere). A win would at least give them a prayer of a home game in the Knockout Round, and would close their regular season slate with two straight away wins against decent teams.
Bigger picture: There's some identity stuff at play here. Portland have performed better recently in the 4-2-3-1 Gio Savarese scrapped way back in March, and another positive data point would be useful heading into the postseason.
Biggest picture: Soccer has often been termed as a "weak link" game – i.e., the herd can only move as fast as the slowest buffalo. Who's the weak link for Portland? Most often this year it's been the center forward and one of the wingers. Jeremy Ebobisse, who seems to have locked down the No. 9 role, was excellent with 1g/2a in the two wins over RSL. This is so nice:
Andy Polo, who's been mostly on the right wing, has only really been "functional." Getting just a little bit of danger out of the guy – he has 1g/2a in 1600 minutes – would be nice.
Seattle Sounders vs. San Jose Earthquakes
4:30 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & streaming info
At Stake for Seattle: It would be at least a little bit hilarious if, after the best half-season in MLS history, the Sounders figured out how to lose to the Quakes on the final day, at home, and cost themselves a home game in the Knockout Round. Win and get some help elsewhere and they could even avoid the Knockout Round entirely.
Given their institutional knowledge, their individual quality, their recent performance and Nico Lodeiro's all-around greatness (this is now unmistakably his team), Seattle should probably be considered no worse than co-favorites in the West no matter what the result is here. But at the same time, they haven't exactly been facing down murderer's row since July.
At Stake for San Jose: Another chance to impress Matias Almeyda, who will be on hand and taking the game in with interest, I'm sure.
I've made no secret of the fact that I really, really like a bunch of San Jose's not-so-young-anymore attackers. They're all playing regular minutes now, and moments like this hold more than just promise:
#WondoWatch is still alive and well, too. A single goal and he equals Landon Donovan's career mark; a brace and he's the new all-time goals king.
I will be shocked if he gets that brace this weekend, but Seattle have been sloppy defending restarts lately. Don't be shocked if Wondo pinches one.
LA Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo
4:30 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & streaming info
At Stake for LA:They are mad at Bobby Warshaw in Sweden because he doesn't believe Zlatan should be anywhere near the MVP race.
Anything less than the full three points, and the discussion becomes moot – the Galaxy will have missed the playoffs and Zlatan's first season, despite his great stats, will be considered an on-field failure. If he puts together yet another commanding performance (he has 7g/3a in his last seven games), and leads the Galaxy to a win, and thus into the playoffs, and if Josef and Atlanta fall short in the Shield race... then Zlatan's got a real argument.
This is literally a must-win for Zlatan, and for the Galaxy, and for interim head coach Dom Kinnear (who's done a nice job of simplifying the team shape and tipping some expensively sacred cows on that backline).
There are bound to be a bunch of changes this offseason regardless, but if Kinnear Schmetzers this team to an MLS Cup title, he'll probably get that "interim" tag removed. Everything's a final from here on out for the Galaxy.
At Stake for Houston: Nothing much, and they've been playing like it sine winning the Open Cup. This team's core is going to be back next year – hopefully with some defensive reinforcements – and their next game will be in the Concacaf Champions League. Going out on a high note would be nice, but what would be nicer is making sure nobody gets injured and that they get through a game without a colossal defensive error.
One More Thing to Ponder
Go check out the Slow Mo Guys on Youtube.
Happy weekending, everybody.
