The Montreal Impact made a statement on Saturday night with a 4-1 win over the Philadelphia Union away from home and FiveThirtyEight's computations have adjusted because of it.
After the win, the Impact saw their playoff probabilities boosted to 65 percent, up from 41 percent last week. D.C. United, who earned a draw against the Red Bulls at Audi Field, drifted back to 39 percent. United are four points behind Montreal with a game in hand and the teams will put their playoff chances on the line when D.C. welcome Montreal to the US capital on Sept. 29.
As a result of the Impact's big win, a shadow of doubt has been wedged between the Union and a playoff berth with FiveThirtyEight's simulations dropped Philly's probability to 80 percent from 94 percent.
In the Western Conference, not a ton changed.
Despite dropping points at home, Real Salt Lake remain on track to make the playoffs. RSL are five points above seventh-place Vancouver Whitecaps, who lost to the Seattle Sounders at home. The Sounders now have a 33 percent chance to get a first-round bye as their win streak nears double-digits. LAFC have seen their likelihood to grab a first-round bye drop to 27 percent after a 1-1 draw at home against the New England Revolution.
Sporting Kansas City's5-1 thumping of the San Jose Earthquakes raised their likelihood of earning a first-round bye to 86 percent as FC Dallas' dropped to 50 percent after a 0-0 draw against Columbus Crew SC.
Further down the playoff races, Toronto's thrilling 5-3 win over the LA Galaxy did nothing to improve their 4 percent probability to make the playoffs. TFC remain nine points behind the playoff line. As for the Galaxy, their playoff hopes continue to dissipate. Still six points off sixth place amid a poor run of form, the outlook stays bleak.
