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Two months. That’s all that’s left to climb the table to new heights, hold on to what you’ve got or scratch and claw your way into one of 12 playoff spots. With 10 games left in the regular season, give or take, the pressure is officially on in MLS, and there’s plenty to gain – and lose.
By now, we know who the MLS Cup favorites and basement dwellers are for 2017. Since March, those teams have differentiated themselves, and their table position and playoff odds reflect those performances. Between the bookends at either end of the standings are the question marks, teams with plenty of hope, sure, but also teams facing failure.
So who among the MLS middle class has the most riding on the season’s final two months? Easy answer: Everybody. With that in mind, I’ve ranked the team’s whose playoff fates I believe to be in the balance – FiveThirtyEight has basically eliminated LA, Philly and Orlando from contention, but I’ve included them here – in order of urgency and respective stakes, with the caveat that any season without a playoff berth ought to be considered a relative failure.
It’s an inexact science. Feel free to share your list in the comment section.
10. Real Salt Lake
24 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight
A coaching change, injuries and underperforming stars meant the odds were always long for still-rebuilding RSL. A playoff push would energize the fanbase, give Mike Petke credibility heading into 2018 and provide a young, talented core with valuable experience, but it won’t be a disaster if they come up short.
9. Philadelphia Union
7 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight
Another year of mediocrity in Chester, albeit with a couple future-building positives. Can Philadelphia make a run? Sure. Will they? Unless they come into an uncharacteristic run of away wins – five of Philly’s next seven are away and the two home dates are against the Fire and Atlanta – the answer is a resounding no. Earnie Stewart arrived from AZ promising to find value and maximize the club’s resources. His record has been hit and miss so far. The winter transfer window will be massive.
8. San Jose Earthquakes
36 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight
They’re currently above the line, but the math says it’ll be a tough slog. San Jose have a general manager in his first full year, a head coach moved into the job midseason with no professional experience and a group of players that’s spent 2017 integrating new faces and trying to figure out how exactly they’re expected to play. Nobody will be happy if November is quiet, but this team feels built to hit its stride in 2018 anyway.
7. LA Galaxy
5 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight
I’ve already made the #Baerantee: The Galaxy will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2008. That doesn’t mean they aren’t playing for an awful lot, especially considering there’s a noisy neighbor moving in downtown. This team is playing for hearts and minds – one win at home isn’t the impression you want to leave on season-ticket holders – while trying to figure out who deserves to stick around, how to get the most out of Giovani and Jonathan dos Santos and whether Sigi Schmid will be the head man come preseason.
6. Orlando City
10 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight
If you haven’t read Paul Tenorio on the roster shuffle happening in Orlando, do so ASAP. Three straight playoff DNQs won’t sit well with the fanbase, but the club made its own bed by turning over the technical and coaching staffs halfway through 2016. Stability is an expansion club’s best friend, and Jason Kreis and Niki Budalić must make some tough decisions in January, chief among them whether to extend Kaka’s future with the club. In the meantime, The Wall isn’t going to accept failure quietly.
5. Vancouver Whitecaps
80 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight
Missing the playoffs last season was a blow to the upward trajectory of a young ‘Caps roster and coaching staff. They can’t afford to do it two years in a row when the West is so tight (and generally down). They’re just six points out of first place and have played the fewest games in MLS with 22 in the book, so there are plenty of reasons to believe they’ll be there, maybe even with a bye, come November. This is a playoff team, but should they collapse…
4. New England Revolution
20 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight
So much talent, so little to show for it. Spending TAM on central defenders in January was supposed to solve the defensive issues, and yet New England still consistently finds ways to give up points. Three wins in four is good, as is the form of Teal Bunbury and Kei Kamara. Outside of a road game against Sporting KC, conveniently coming right before the US Open Cup final, the Revs’ remaining schedule is all Eastern Conference. Get leads then hold them, and maybe just maybe they’ll sneak into the playoff field.
3. Montreal Impact
41 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight
After coming within a bounce or two of MLS Cup, the Impact are facing a somewhat uncertain future. The squad isn’t getting any younger – though signing Samuel Piette was a nice bit of transfer business – and now Ignacio Piatti says this could be his last season in Montreal just weeks after Ballou Tabla and his agents made known his desire to move abroad. With so much up in the air, Montreal must take advantage of their current title window. Miss the playoffs and that window could close should the roster turn over significantly come December and January.
2. Columbus Crew SC
46 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight
You’ll notice the final two teams on this list have something in common: They both played in MLS Cup 2015. Despite the disappointment of losing that final at home, it seemed Crew SC were poised to become an Eastern Conference power. Then came the Kei Kamara saga, Tony Tchani and Ethan Finlay’s transformation from game-changers to benchwarmers, a ninth-place finish in 2016 and now a coin flip to see whether it’ll be two straight years without postseason soccer.
Anthony Precourt has invested, though DP defender Jonathan Mensah has been a unmitigated disappointment, and will undoubtedly expect another shot at the Cup this year. Like Montreal, Columbus are also facing an unsettled star in Ola Kamara, quietly one of the league’s top goalscorers. Failure is unacceptable. Playoffs or bust for Crew SC.
1. Portland Timbers
73 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight
If the Timbers somehow blow it and miss the playoffs when the Western Conference is so obviously down, the legacy of their core will come into question despite that MLS Cup triumph back in 2015. That sounds harsh, but how can a club with Diego Valeri, Darlington Nagbe, Fanendo Adi and Diego Chara in their primes and that home-field advantage miss the playoffs for the third time in four years?
Portland were atop the standings on May 1, and are now down to fifth in the midst of a 4-7-6 (18 points from 51 available) stretch with nine games remaining, tied for fewest in MLS. Yes, injuries have been an issue, especially on the backline, but even justifiable excuses aren’t going to cut it this time around. More than any other team, the Timbers are under pressure to reverse their slide and qualify for the playoffs. A home win against the Red Bulls on Friday night (10 pm ET; FS1 and FOX Deportes in the US, MLS LIVE in Canada) would be a good start.
