Red Line Report: What Wednesday night's games mean to the playoff race

Red Line Report - DL image

Wednesday night features two huge games in the Audi MLS Cup Playoff race as the Montreal Impact will host Orlando City SC (7:30 pm ET; MLS LIVE) and Real Salt Lake face off against the LA Galaxy (9:30 pm ET; MLS LIVE).


This is the beginning of a long week for Orlando, as they head to LA to take on the Galaxy on Sunday (7 pm ET; FS1 in US | MLS LIVE in Canada). They currently sit just one point behind D.C. United with a game in hand and both teams have similarly tough schedules, as you can see below.


The Impact are hoping to catch the Philadelphia Union, who sit in fourth place with 40 points through 28 games, so they can start the playoffs at home. Montreal are currently on 37 points through 26 games.


Real Salt Lake are currently clutching the No. 2 seed in the West, which would give them a bye to the Conference Semifinals. They sit in that cushy spot thanks to their 12 wins, the first tiebreaker, one more than the Colorado Rapids and two more than the LA Galaxy, as all three teams are have 43 points.


RSL are one of four Western Conference teams who are unbeaten at home, along with FC Dallas, Colorado and LA, and if they continue that run they could open a gap for themselves.


If the regular season ended today ...


Eastern Conference Playoff Bracket


Conference Semifinals


1. New York City FC


Conference Semifinals


2. New York Red Bulls




Knockout Round


3. Toronto FC


VS.


6. D.C. United


Knockout Round


4. Philadelphia Union


VS.


5. Montreal Impact


Western Conference Playoff Bracket


Conference Semifinals


1. FC Dallas


Conference Semifinals


2. Real Salt Lake




Knockout Round


3. Colorado Rapids


VS.


6. Portland Timbers


Knockout Round


4. LA Galaxy


VS.


5. Sporting Kansas City


Strength of Schedule and Expected Points


The strength of schedule metric takes into account the average points per game (PPG) that each team's opponents earn at home and on the road. The lower the PPG, the easier the schedule.


For example, if FC Dallas traveled to play the LA Galaxy, who have averaged 2.5 PPG at home, and then hosted the Vancouver Whitecaps, who have averaged 1.53 PPG on the road, their opponents' PPG would be 2.02. The higher the PPG, the more difficult a team's remaining schedule.


The Expected Points metric is strictly based off of what teams have done up to this point. For example, New York City FC have collected 1.64 points per game at home this season and 1.50 on the road. So if they continue averaging those totals, with five more home games left and four more road games, they would be expected to collect 53.43 points.


Here are both the Strength of Schedule and Expected Points rankings for each conference:

Red Line Report: What Wednesday night's games mean to the playoff race - https://league-mp7static.mlsdigital.net/images/East-SOS-9-6.jpg
TEAM
EXPECTED POINTS
Toronto FC
55.53
New York Red Bulls
54.14
New York City FC
53.43
Philadelphia Union
48.57
Montreal Impact
48.38
D.C. United
39.79
Orlando City SC
39.46
New England Revolution
36.43
Chicago Fire
34.00
Columbus Crew SC
32.79
Red Line Report: What Wednesday night's games mean to the playoff race - https://league-mp7static.mlsdigital.net/images/West-SOS-9-6.jpg
TEAM
EXPECTED POINTS
FC Dallas
61.93
Colorado Rapids
56.23
Real Salt Lake
54.92
LA Galaxy
53.62
Sporting Kansas City
46.14
Portland Timbers
42.50
San Jose Earthquakes
41.85
Seattle Sounders
40.54
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
37.64
Houston Dynamo
32.69