Welcome to another edition of "Discuss," in which MLSsoccer.com editors debate the topics of the moment in MLS. This week, we'll let Armchair Analyst Matt Doyle kick it off...
So there the Colorado Rapids sit, third place in the Western Conference at 4-2-1. Sure, they've scored just seven goals, but they've conceded only five. They don't precisely look good, but so far they look very difficult to beat.
See? Even in this intro I'm hedging. Because what we're talking about is this:
I still don't want to take part in this argument, because I'm just not sure what the Rapids are at this point. They play defensive midfielders as No. 10s; they sign 30-somethings by the bushel; they've traded, cut or sold much of the young core that led them to their last playoff appearance, back in 2013. It doesn't seem like a very shrewd strategy, on paper.
And yet, there the Rapids sit, third place in the West.
I'm not brave (foolish?) enough to try to explain it. Luckily three of my colleagues – Senior Editor Andrew Wiebe, New Media Editor Nick Rosano and Contributor Sam Stejskal – are made of sterner stuff. So... Will the Colorado Rapids make the playoffs? Discuss!
WIEBE: Show me the goals
Three weeks ago, this wasn’t a discussion I was willing to consider. No chance, I said. Way too early to tell, I argued. Since then the Rapids have won three of four, welcomed Jermaine Jones into the fold and convinced me I might have been wrong to dismiss them so quickly.
Yes, the Rapids are quickly making believers out of the nonbelievers, and their defense is currently the stingiest in MLS … but I’m not ready slap the playoff label on them just yet. Why? Because they’ve got to score goals to win in a stacked Western Conference that’s only going to tighten as the season goes on.
Pablo Mastroeni’s boys must grab points in threes to stay above the red line, and seven goals in seven games just isn’t going to cut it. The good news for Rapids fans is that they’re creating chances – Colorado are tied for first in chances created from open play (66). The bad news is their conversion rate is under 10 percent, sixth-worst in MLS, and DP striker Kevin Doyle and No. 10 Marco Pappa are on the shelf.
ROSANO: Take it to the house
My colleagues may be skeptical, let's make one thing clear: I'm riding first-class on the Rapids hype train all the way to the playoffs.
We know about the defense, which will only get better when a veteran goalkeeper of Tim Howard's caliber comes in. But where they will truly surprise is further up the field. Jones's arrival makes the Rapids' midfield one of the best groups in MLS – Jones and Sam Cronin provide the steel, Dillon Powers and Pappa create the chances and Shkelzen Gashi helps with the scoring load – and believe me, he will get a lot more goals.
I'll grant that there are a few places this could all go wrong. The injuries to Doyle and Pappa are short-term concerns at this point, but any additional absences from them or other starters could seriously test the team's depth. Also, the decision to drop instead of Micheal Azira to the bench to make room for Jones this past weekend got an eyebrow raise from me – I'm a little less sold if that's the long-term move here.
One last thing – let's dispense with the 'Rapids are old' talk. They actually happen to be one of the youngest teams in MLS and 16 of the 25 players on their roster are 25 or under. Sure, Mastroeni may skew towards the veterans when naming his starting XI, but there is plenty of young talent waiting in the wings. In the grueling MLS regular season, that can only be a boon.
STEJSKAL: There's always next year
Pablo Mastroeni’s quotes are championship caliber, but his Rapids – no matter how much spirit, heart and, um, stones they have – aren’t going to make the playoffs.
There’s no doubt that they’re significantly better than they were last year, when they finished dead last in the West with 37 points. Jermaine Jones is off to a flying start, Tim Howard is Tim Howard, Shkelzen Gashi is a real talent and Marco Pappa (now injured) has been dangerous. The Rapids will be a tough out in 2016, and they’ll beat some legit teams to affect seeding down the stretch.
I just can’t really fathom a planet in which they finish ahead of two of Dallas, Kansas City, LA, Seattle, Portland, Salt Lake and Vancouver to make it above the red line. In the East? Maybe. In the West? Well, the world ain’t gonna stop spinning – there’s always 2017, Pablo.
