Matt "the Armchair Analyst" Doyle breaks down all of Sunday's second legs of the Conference Semifinals of the Audi 2015 MLS Cup Playoffs. Check them all out.
EAST: New York-DC| Columbus-Montreal | WEST:Vancouver-Portland| Dallas-Seattle
Seattle's 2-1 win over FC Dallas last Sunday was the best, most entertaining first leg of any of the conference semifinals. We had big performances from stars, gutty performances from grind-it-out lifers, kids rising to the occasion, and a smart (yet risky) tactical switch from a Hall of Fame coach.
If Sunday's second leg at Toyota Stadium (7:30 pm ET; FS1, FoxDeportes in US | TSN1 in Canada) is half so good, we'll be in for a treat.
And the thing is: This game should be really, really good. Yes, there are injury concerns on one side and striker concerns on the other, but the soul-sapping heat that kills the rhythm and feel of games in the Texas summer is officially a thing of the past. It looks like the weather conditions will be damn near ideal, which means that these two teams can go at each other without the risk of melting away into a puddle.
The Trends: Dallas won four of their final five in the regular season, and were 7-2-1 in their final 10. However, their recent playoff history isn't so great. Since making it all the way to MLS Cup in 2010 they've gone just 1-2-2, with their lone win last year's 2-1 defeat of Vancouver in the Knockout Round.
Seattle are unbeaten in their last 11 games across all competitions. They are 7-0-4 in that span. And since May they've lost just once with Obafemi Martins in the lineup.
Last Sunday's win marked the first time in franchise history that they won the first leg of any series.
What FC Dallas Will Do: Play the game through Mauro Diaz
Diaz had the assist on FCD's only goal in leg 1, a trademark through ball that put Fabian Castillo past the Sounders backline and in on goal. Any time he got the ball on his foot, it was magical:
Mauro Diaz was on fire in the 1st half. (6 clips) #MLSCupPlayoffs#SEAvDALpic.twitter.com/6XwrDXXLOM
— Ben Jata (@Ben_Jata) November 2, 2015Diaz is a classic Argentine No. 10, a throwback playmaker who can be dangerous from just about anywhere on the field.
And for the first 45 minutes last week, he was.
How to solve it: Compress the lines
Ben pretty neatly sums it up in that tweet. Diaz will have some nice touches no matter what, but you can limit how effective he is.
The way to do that is by making certain the defense and midfield are working together. Watch the first-half clips, and you'll see that there's almost always a significant gap between the lines. Watch the second-half clips, and you'll see that the gap is much narrower.
This sounds easier than it is, in practice, because the speed of Castillo and Michael Barrios always pushes the defensive line deeper.
What Seattle Will Do: Absorb and release
Seattle had a plan heading into this season: Move Brad Evans to central defense and use him to initiate strings of possession. Let his comfort on the ball be the defining factor in the team's ability to play from the back and through the midfield.
When Evans has been healthy, this has worked. When he hasn't been healthy, Seattle have had to return to their tried and true counterattacking instincts.
Evans came up lame 10 days ago against the LA Galaxy, and right now I really don't expect him to play on Sunday. That means it's time to sit back, invite Dallas forward, and then try to combine through the middle...
No long balls from the Sounders. Just Martins, Clint Dempsey and one of the midfielders (probably Andreas Ivanschitz rather than Marco Pappa, who I'd wager starts on the bench) ripping teams up with pass-and-move.
How to stop it: Flip the triangle
The teams that do the best at stifling Seattle are the ones that play with a true defensive midfielder. Oscar Pareja prefers something different, a sort of pulley system in which two deep-lying midfielders share defensive and attacking duties in support of Diaz.
In this instance, I think the smart play would be to pull Victor Ulloa -- the more defensive-minded deep-lying midfielder, no matter whether he's partnered with Ezequiel Cirigliano or Kellyn Acosta -- even deeper, directly in front of the central defenders, and peg him there for the evening.
If you're going to get beat by the Sounders, make them do it with wide play.
What's it all mean?
I've been saying this for several months: Are you comfortable relying upon David Texeira in playoff series in which you're going up against the likes of Martins and Dempsey, or Robbie Keane, or Dom Dwyer, or any of the other top, reliable goalscorers in MLS?
Texeira's a nice player, but look through the history of the playoffs and you'll see it's the big stars who produce the big goals. Even without hugely important pieces like Evans and Ozzie Alonso, Seattle have those stars.
I think the Sounders go through.
