Canada see off Suriname to win Concacaf Nations League quarterfinal
The Canadian men's national team left no doubts, over Suriname. Jonathan David opened the scoring and Nashville SC's Jacob Shaffelburg netted a brace as Canada cruised to a Leg 2 win at Toronto FC's BMO Field.
Nashville SC sign Norwegian midfielder Tagseth
Nashville SC have acquired midfielder Edvard Tagseth from Norwegian top-flight powerhouse Rosenborg BK. 23-year-old former Norway youth international is under contract through 2026 with an option for 2027. Tagseth tallied 9g/19a in 138 appearances for Rosenborg across the Eliteserien and other competitions. He spent time in Liverpool's youth system, featuring for the Premier League club's U-18 and U-23 sides.
We’ve almost made it. The Conference Semifinals are only a few days away. We’ve taken a look at each remaining team. Now it’s time to take a swing at each remaining matchup. Starting with an Eastern Conference bracket that’s been flipped on its head.
Who’s the favorite?
It’s the home team. That’s always true in MLS, except for rare scenarios. This is not one of those rare scenarios. New York City FC are hosting this one, and, as you might have heard, they’re pretty good at home. Just a reminder: 1.94 points per game at home this year with a 0.34 expected goal differential per game. 1.00 points per game on the road with a -0.15 expected goal differential per game. That’s not a completely atrocious road record or anything. It’s just that they’re way better in New York City. Only three teams had a larger difference between their home and road records this season. And only five teams earned more points at home.
The added bonus here is that it doesn’t really seem to matter what stadium they’re in, as long as they’re within 15 miles of Manhattan. We’re only a few weeks removed from NYCFC heading to Red Bull Arena and pummeling the Red Bulls 5-1. NYCFC have the edge here.
Can the not favorite pull this off?
It sure seems like it. That 5-1 loss feels like a long time ago now, considering what the Red Bulls have pulled off since then. Despite an atrocious finish to the season, they came out and straight-up beat Columbus. By any realistic measure, it’s one of the most shocking results in MLS history. But there were signs the Red Bulls had this in them. Their underlying numbers were among the very best in the league all season. And with Emil Forsberg back in the lineup and getting healthier by the game, they finally had enough juice (and good luck) to start making those chance creation numbers look a lot more meaningful.
They’re a good team. There are a couple of small concerns here, though. First, it will have been 20 days between games by the time this edition of the Hudson River Derby kicks off. That’s a long layoff. Second, it’s not clear how well the counter-attacking tactics that got them past Columbus will work on the less expansive Citi Field pitch.
What’s The Daily Kickoff’s prediction?
I think the Red Bulls get this done. I think this game is ugly. I think they drag everyone into the mud, and I think they come out clean on the other end of a rock fight. Honestly, it seems like a game that’s destined for penalties. At least it should be close, though, and not…whatever happened at the end of September. They’re a good team, and frankly, the underlying numbers like them more. The game isn’t played on a spreadsheet, but any guessing game should be.
Odds are…
Then again, any pick against the home team in MLS is gut-based. Our totally made-up, off the top of our heads odds for this one suggest NYCFC gets this done 63% of the time.
Who’s the favorite?
It’s the home team. We can’t waver on that.
It’s easy to stand by it, though, when Orlando have been so successful over the last few months. We’ve mentioned it so many times, but it feels worth mentioning every time: Only two teams earned more points than Orlando over the second half of the season, and, per American Soccer Analysis, only one team had a better-expected points total. They were arguably the best team in the East over the second half of the year (even if there are legitimate questions about their strength of schedule and strength of record).
Can the not favorite pull this off?
Even with Orlando being practically perfect in the second half, Atlanta United still found a way to get the better of them on Decision Day. That 2-1 win in Orlando miraculously handed Atlanta the ninth seed. A lot has happened since then.
Atlanta will be entering this one with all the confidence in the world, and they’ll be entering this one with a new look setup. Brooks Lennon’s injury forced them to shift Saba Lobjanidze to wingback against Inter Miami. Atlanta’s new 5-3-2 alignment worked pretty darn well against the Herons. There’s reason to believe it could work pretty well against Orlando, too.
Then again, Orlando will be far more organized than Miami. Atlanta won’t be able to rip apart the Lions’ defense with a single pass through misshapen lines like they did against the Herons. They’ll have to work a lot harder to come by big chances.
Still, Orlando will have to find a way to break down an Atlanta side that looked really comfortable in a low block. The Lions had issues doing that against Charlotte. Atlanta aren't quite as resilient defensively as The Crown, but they're much more dangerous in attack. A game-state-flipping moment for Atlanta could have Orlando in panic mode.
What’s The Daily Kickoff’s prediction?
Against my better judgment, I’m once again leaning toward the road team. Orlando needed a late penalty to survive against Charlotte. Atlanta are coming off that. The vibes are different these days. And I’m concerned about Orlando’s ability to deal with another team content to sit deep when the Lions’ attack looked so lackluster over their last few games.
That being said, there are areas of the pitch where Orlando could exploit Atlanta. In particular, down the left side, where Lobjanidze is still finding his defensive footing at wingback. Iván Angulo getting to the end line and into the penalty area could be a real problem. Orlando have pace up top and a willingness to exploit space in behind Miami didn’t have. There’s still a lot of uncertainty about what this reworked Atlanta side looks like against a normal MLS side that’s going to be disciplined and tactically sound.
Honestly, better play it safe here. I’ll go Orlando in a game that eventually gets a little more open than they’re comfortable with, but they survive anyway.
(Is it still a reverse jinx if I acknowledge it?)
Odds are…
Look to the home team. That honestly might be the only real edge between either side here. The underlying numbers actually like Atlanta a little more. The vibes check likes Atlanta more. But the Five Stripes are on the road, and the Lions aren’t. Our totally made-up off the top of our heads odds for this one suggest that Orlando gets this done 55% of the time.
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- The 2024 MLS Holiday Gift Guide is here.
Good luck out there. Score goals and have great hair.
