2024 MLS Best XI presented by Continental Tire unveiled
Major League Soccer has unveiled the 2024 MLS Best XI presented by Continental Tire, recognizing the league’s top players at each position.
MLS Cup on Saturday
Hey, if you haven’t heard, MLS Cup presented by Audi is this Saturday. Kickoff is set for 4 pm ET (Apple TV - Free, FOX, FOX Deportes).
FC Cincinnati permanently acquire Orellano
FC Cincinnati have permanently acquired Luca Orellano from Vasco da Gama. The 24-year-old attacker was on loan from the Brazilian top-flight side with a purchase option. In 2024, Orellano contributed 12g/7a in 42 matches across all competitions. He was named an MLS All-Star and was an MLS Newcomer of the Year finalist.
The Galaxy, by virtue of being the home team and a second seed instead of a seventh seed and the team with 17 more points during the regular season, are the favorites heading into MLS Cup. That’s not going to change over the next few days, but just for fun, let’s try and argue the other side. I think we’ll probably find out the gap isn’t as wide as you might think. Red Bulls fans, I am here to deliver you all the hopium you can handle. You’re welcome. What could go wrong?
New York have the better statistical profile
In true Daily Kickoff fashion, we’re going to start by diving right into the numbers and remind you, as surprising as the Red Bulls’ run has been, there were warning signs. Per American Soccer Analysis, New York ended the year averaging an expected goal differential of +0.34 per game. Only FC Cincinnati, Columbus and LAFC were better. Meanwhile, the Galaxy ended the year with a +0.18 xGD, the ninth-best mark in the league, one spot below Atlanta United and one spot above Portland. Basically, the Red Bulls created better chances and allowed fewer chances than their opponents more often than the Galaxy did.
A large part of that comes down to the Galaxy’s struggles defensively. LA created a league-best 1.8 xG per game, but allowed 1.6 xG per game. That’s tied for the seventh-worst mark in the league with Inter Miami. Keep that in mind; we’ll talk more about it later.
Meanwhile, the Red Bulls created 1.65 xG per game (seventh-best in MLS) and allowed 1.31 xG per game (fifth-best in MLS). New York ended up averaging 1.64 expected points per game, the second-best mark in the league. The Galaxy averaged just 1.48 expected points per game, the 11th-best mark.
If we dig into an even more complicated but more all-encompassing metric like goals added, the Red Bulls are still well ahead of the Galaxy. New York finished second in that metric compared to 13th for LA. If you were just looking at (very nerdy) a tale of the tape, the Red Bulls look like an MLS Cup-winning side in a way the Galaxy just don’t.
New York are set up to pull this off
New York’s shift to a counter-attacking 5-2-1-2 setup has been the key to their run to the final. Along the way, they’ve taken down the league’s second-most possession-oriented team (Columbus), the seventh-most possession-oriented team (Orlando City) and the league’s eighth-most possession-oriented team (NYCFC). They’ve done it with an average possession total of 32.5% over four matches.
On Saturday, they’ll be up against the league’s third-most possession-oriented team. The Galaxy averaged 56.7% possession during the regular season. They really only have one approach and one way to play. The Red Bulls aren’t going to be worried about it. At least in the sense that New York will be plenty comfortable having to play against the ball for the majority of this one.
When they are able to hit on the break, they’ll be up against a Galaxy side vulnerable to giving up big chances in transition moments. New York aren’t as solid as the Sounders defensively, but they should have a bit more firepower in attack when heading the other way at speed. That feels odd to say of a Red Bulls side, but Emil Forsberg has helped turn them into a dangerous counter-attacking side this postseason.
From my view, the Galaxy’s vulnerabilities aren’t far from the same vulnerabilities Inter Miami had exposed in Round One against Atlanta. A team with rest defense and transition defense issues going up against a side committed to sitting deeper in a back five looking to hit at speed on the break feels familiar. If the Red Bulls can find opportunities against Columbus - a very good defensive side in transition - then they’ll find opportunities against LA.
The Galaxy are going to have to figure out a Plan B on the fly
On the other side, the Galaxy are going to have to figure out how to break down the Red Bulls without Riqui Puig. We went in-depth on the impact of Puig’s injury yesterday, but it’s worth bringing up again. It may end up being the single-most devastating injury in MLS history if the Galaxy come up short. An all-time great what if. And his absence is going to be ever present in any discussions surrounding the game this week.
Without him, the Galaxy are going to have to figure out a Plan B in attack. Puig is maybe the single most important player to a team’s attack in MLS history. The total number of passes he’s completed this year in the middle and final third is the highest total in ASA’s database. He gets on the ball in the middle and final third more than any player in MLS. Everything has run through him this year.
The Galaxy with Marco Reus or Diego Fagúndez in the lineup just aren’t the same. And when things become frustrating against the Red Bulls - and they will! - we don’t know how they’re going to react. And we don’t know if they’re going to be able to solve problems.
- Here’s everything you need to know about MLS Cup.
- Take a look at five big moments that defined New York’s run to MLS Cup.
- Take a look at five big moments that defined LA’s run to MLS Cup.
- Joe Lowery picked out 10 stats that will decide MLS Cup 2024.
Good luck out there. Go on parade.
