A few teams have ended up in unexpected places this year. It’s MLS, that’s just how this works. But some results have been more surprising than others.
The Galaxy are back on top
This isn’t necessarily a surprise considering how we’ve been waiting for years for one of the highest-profile teams in MLS to get their life together. It’s more that this particular team felt like it could go so many different ways. I remember at the start of our preseason projections, we placed the Galaxy anywhere from first to 14th place in the Western Conference. Every single outcome seemed plausible. It really all depended on whether or not their new signings hit and whether they could overcome a porous defense.
Well, Gabriel Pec has put together a Landon Donovan MLS MVP-caliber season, Joseph Paintsil is a menace, Dejan Joveljic has been as steady a starting striker as there is the league and the Galaxy have allowed a manageable 48 goals. That’s been more than enough to push them into first place. Yeah, they’ve caught a few breaks when it comes to xG overperformance, but it feels safe to assume this is still a very good team. For the first time in a long time, the Galaxy have found a way back on top.
RSL come alive
The vibes around Real Salt Lake and head coach Pablo Mastroeni weren’t good. Don’t forget, he kept his job after 2023, but RSL went ahead and rearranged his entire assistant coaching staff. In any sport, that’s a very clear message a coach has one more shot to get this right or that’s it.
Well, Mastroeni and his new staff tweaked some tactics, got their first full season with Chicho Arango as their DP striker, and watched as an early-season hot streak from Arango turned into results and confidence for young players like Diego Luna and Andrés Gómez. Arango isn’t as hot anymore and Gómez is gone, but RSL are still sitting fourth in the West with a home playoff spot clinched and a possible third-place finish available on Decision Day. Just one more point and they’ll tie the club record for points in a season.
Chicago miss the playoffs
Just seeing if you’re paying attention.
Atlanta’s implosion
Atlanta United entered the year with a DP striker set to contend for the Golden Boot presented by Audi, a young DP No. 10 who finished in the top three of last year’s MVP voting, a permanent head coach and a technical director. They don’t have any of those things any more.
Somehow, Atlanta found a way to have a first percentile outcome in just about every possible facet of the season. It has been truly remarkable. And their underlying numbers reflect that. Per American Soccer Analysis, only four MLS teams have ever underperformed their expected goals numbers in attack like Atlanta.
They didn’t catch any breaks at the beginning of the year and it caused them to hit the reset button entirely. And even after that, they still aren’t catching any breaks. They can maybe sneak into a Wild Card spot on Decision Day, but all eyes are already on 2025 when Atlanta are set to head into the year with a new chief soccer officer, a new head coach, two new DPs and maybe a whole lot more.
Philadelphia end an era
All considered, this might be the most surprising outcome of the year. The Union had been a model of consistency for five years. They were bringing back the same group we’ve come to know and love here at The Daily Kickoff (and that you, as an opposing team’s fan, have probably come to strongly dislike).
There were always concerns that maybe they were running it back one too many times with this group, but those concerns were more about their ability to win a title. Now we’re wondering if they’ll even make the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs.
The most surprising aspect of it all has been their total regression defensively. The center back play of Jakob Glesnes and Jack Elliott, plus the goalkeeping of Andre Blake, has been a staple of this group for a while now. This year though, the Union defense has been lacking. Only two teams in the East have scored more often, yet they’ve allowed 53 goals on the season. They haven’t allowed more than 50 since 2016 and are only two goals away from allowing a club-record amount in a season. We’re only two years away from Philly allowing 26 (!!!) goals the entire year.
Now, they’ve begun to tear down some key pieces of their impressive run near the top of the conference. José Martínez and Julián Carranza are gone and more staples could be on the way out this offseason. It’s the end of an era in Philly.
Inter Miami survive Copa América
Everyone knew Miami would be nearly impossible to handle at full strength. But what about when they didn’t have Lionel Messi, Luis Suárez and a number of other supporting cast members?
Heading into the year, Miami felt particularly primed to suffer during this summer’s Copa América. A month-plus without Messi and Suárez could have easily put a major dent in their Supporters’ Shield hopes. Instead, they went out and won six of the seven Messi-less games.
Let’s say they take a reasonable 10 points over that stretch instead of 18. We’d be heading into Decision Day with a tie atop the Shield standings. Instead, all that’s left to find out is whether or not Miami will break the single-season points record.
Yes, they caught a ton of breaks along the way and the xG overperformance from everyone who isn’t Messi or Suárez would be enough to set a near historic mark in MLS. But that doesn’t make that seven-game run any less surprising or any less important. There wasn’t a more meaningful stretch of games this season, and Miami met the task in a way we didn’t expect.
- Charles Boehm picked out the five biggest storylines that will define Decision Day 2024.
- Sacha Kljestan explained which star players will decide Decision Day.
- Take a look at the Golden Boot tracker before Decision Day.
- Here’s every team that’s already clinched a playoff spot.
- And here’s what the playoffs look like now before everything gets all messed up on Saturday.
- In case you need a refresh, these are the tiebreakers in MLS.
- This is what’s at stake for every club on Decision Day.
- Canada are bringing "positive energy” to their first home match under Jesse Marsch.
Good luck out there. Be prepared for any situation.
