The Daily Kickoff

Your Tuesday Kickoff: How Vancouver can pull off a CCL miracle against LAFC

J. Sam Jones

What you need to know

Brad Guzan out with knee injury

Atlanta United starting goalkeeper Brad Guzan will miss 10-12 weeks after suffering a torn MCL in his left knee, the club announced Tuesday morning. In Guzan’s absence, Atlanta are expected to lean upon veterans Quentin Westberg and Clement Diop.

2023 Concacaf Gold Cup host cities and stadiums announced

Concacaf announced on Monday the 14 metropolitan areas and 15 stadiums that will host 2023 Concacaf Gold Cup matches. The list features eight MLS stadiums, including newly-built soccer-specific grounds CITYPARK (St. Louis CITY SC) and TQL Stadium (FC Cincinnati).

LAFC-Vancouver in CCL tonight

LAFC enter home confines with a 3-0 aggregate lead, hoping to finish the job in pursuit of continental silverware and a place at the expanded 2025 FIFA Club World Cup. Both Western Conference clubs are looking to keep CCL silverware in MLS’s court after Seattle Sounders FC won the 2022 crown in historic fashion. Kickoff is set for 10:15 pm ET on FS1 and TUDN in the States and OneSoccer, TELUS Channel 980 and Fubo TV in Canada.

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The Whitecaps need a little magic

We won’t waste time today: Vancouver need a miracle. A whole big deus ex machina movie moment we talk about until Chat GPT gets Skynet up and running.

There are a few ways I can envision it going down, but, just remember, we’re talking about 1% of timelines here. Probably fewer honestly. But let’s lay out a path of some kind anyway, even if it’s not that clear where the entrance to that path even is.

Step 1: LAFC come in fully believing in the previous two paragraphs

This has to happen. It’s a prerequisite for all of it. LAFC have to come in and, as they did against Alajuelense, ease up on the gas to take in the view of a 3-0 lead heading into a home leg. That’s not just the players, it’s manager Steve Cherundolo, too.

The problem for Vancouver there though is that Cherundolo taking his foot off the gas means LAFC will be bringing in guys off the bench like… uh… José Cifuentes? He got his first start in almost a month on Saturday. Or maybe it’s Stipe Biuk, legitimately one of the most touted young players in the world? Or… Giorgio Chiellini?

Look, the point here is even if LAFC rotate this one, they probably still have the juice from a talent perspective. They’ll have to come out flat mentally too for this to be a reality. Considering that these are all extremely talented players fighting for playing time, it doesn’t seem all that likely. But let’s say they do. I mean, they technically lost 2-1 to Alajuelense in the home leg of the first round. They also had a 3-0 lead heading into that one. All the Whitecaps need to do is be two goals better than that.

Step 2: Brian White and Julian Gressel (and Simon Becher?)

I just want to take a moment to point out, in addition to playing generally good ball lately, the Whitecaps have had some standout performers this year. Brian White’s expected goal numbers have him right behind Jordan Morris for second in the league this season. He’s finding outstanding chances, even if he’s not finishing at quite the same rate as Morris. In fact, no one is underperforming their xG more.

That’s not a bad thing! Finishing is fake! 99% of players (or so) eventually regress to the mean, for better or worse. As long as you’re finding the ball in great positions to score, you’re eventually going to score. Maybe that regression happens in one fell swoop tonight?

It helps of course to have Julian Gressel. Gressel is putting up similarly excellent underlying numbers so far, trailing only Thiago Almada in expected assists. He basically used White as a backboard over the weekend and sent a cannonball directly off White and into the net to give Vancouver a 1-0 win over Portland. More of the same tonight could put pressure on LAFC early.

And if it’s not those two, maybe it’s Simon Becher? He’s come on hot to start his MLS career, scoring four goals faster than anybody ever. Maybe the script demands it’s Simon Becher.

Step 3: ???

???????

Step 4: Profit

Yeah, I don’t know what step three is. That’s the random variable we can’t see. Like a double red card for LAFC, or a bird flying out of the sky and sacrificing its life to deflect a ball into the net for the glory of Vancouver. It’s going to take something incredibly special. Which is why step five is most likely…

Step 5: LAFC win everything

It’s just the most likely outcome. They have an absurdly stacked team with incredible depth and maybe the hottest player on the continent right now in Dénis Bouanga. They can bring on top-tier players off the bench and everyone can generally agree the guys in front of them should be starting. They have everything they need.

And, you know what, they aren’t going anywhere. There were worries in the offseason about Cifuentes leaving for Europe and derailing LAFC’s CCL hopes. Well, now that Timothy Tillman seems to be more than prepared to take his place, that doesn’t feel like that big of a deal. They have everything they need to not only win CCL, but Leagues Cup and, heck, you might as well throw all of the MLS trophies back on the pile too. This is all happening again. And very few teams are going to be able to have anything to say about it.

That is, unless Vancouver follow a foolproof plan.

Other things

NYCFC sign defender Turnbull from MLS NEXT Pro: New York City FC have promoted defender Stephen Turnbull to a first-team contract through the 2023 MLS season with options for 2024-25. Turnbull, 25, is the first player from MLS NEXT Pro side NYCFC II to join NYCFC. The fullback has already played 23 minutes (two substitute appearances) this season while on a series of short-term loans.

LAFC's Bouanga named Player of the Matchday: Duh.

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