Your Thursday Kickoff: Will Decision Day decide Seattle’s season?

Columbus sign Arfsten to contract extension

The Columbus Crew have signed midfielder Max Arfsten to a multi-year contract extension. The 23-year-old's new deal runs through the 2027 season with a club option for 2028. Arfsten is in his second season with Columbus, having originally joined the club as a first-round pick in the 2023 MLS SuperDraft.

• Sign up for The Daily Kickoff
• Buy MLS match tickets

Decision Day is going to be more important for some than others.

Of course, we already know the four teams having a mud fight at the bottom of the Eastern Conference for the Wild Card spots need a win. We also know the LA Galaxy need a point to avoid potentially blowing their lead atop the Western Conference.

But what about everyone else? Here’s who has the most to play for on Saturday.

Columbus and LA play for a shot at hosting MLS Cup

Columbus head into Saturday‘s match at the New York Red Bulls (6 pm ET | MLS Season Pass) on 63 points. They obviously can’t catch Inter Miami CF in the standings, but they can bypass the LA Galaxy and outlast LAFC. Remember, the team with the higher regular-season points total hosts MLS Cup presented by Audi on Dec. 7. With a win and a Galaxy draw, the Crew can finish second in the overall standings and ensure they’ll host MLS Cup (in back-to-back seasons) if they get there. That’s a big incentive for a team that’s made every final possible over the last year.

It’s also another incentive for LA to take care of business on Saturday night when visiting a Houston Dynamo side fighting to hold onto the fifth spot in the West (9 pm ET | MLS Season Pass). But if they pull out a win, they’ll finish ahead of the Crew. And that would mean they’re at home for the entirety of the playoffs unless they meet Supporters’ Shield winners Inter Miami in MLS Cup. That’s great news for a team that’s undefeated at Dignity Health Sports Park this season.

Seattle try to avoid LAFC

I’m not saying the Seattle Sounders should lose on Saturday against the Portland Timbers (9 pm ET | MLS Season Pass). I’m also not not saying that.

They’re the hottest team in the league post-Leagues Cup. They’ve been on a 2.38 points-per-game pace since then. In fact, they’ve been on that pace since the halfway mark of their season. Only Inter Miami have been on a better pace in that span.

The only thing they haven’t handled over the last few months is matchups with LAFC. They straight-up can’t beat these dudes. They've faced them four times this season in three competitions and they’ve come up short each time. In 2024, the aggregate score is 9-1 LAFC.

You can go even further than that, though. Seattle haven’t beaten LAFC in their last 10 tries. LAFC have eight wins in those 10 games. Something doesn’t click for Seattle against them and the playoffs aren’t typically when these things change.

So, maybe – just maybe – Seattle should be scoreboard-watching on Saturday. Ok, I’m not actually suggesting they throw their matchup with Portland. But still, maybe the best outcome is whatever keeps them from a potential meeting with LAFC in the Conference Semifinals. If they can at least avoid them until the Conference Finals, it’s probably for the better. If they can avoid them until someone else takes care of them, even better. The rest of the West feels beatable for this group. LAFC… well, Seattle can definitely beat them. They just haven’t proven it in a long, long while.

A Rocky Mountain Cup Round One

This isn’t really about what’s best for either team. But there’s a chance we get a special matchup in Round One.

If the Colorado Rapids take care of business at Austin FC on Saturday (9 pm ET | MLS Season Pass), they could get a Rocky Mountain Cup series vs. Real Salt Lake. That means potentially three playoff games between arch-rivals that are both having fantastic seasons.

The Rapids are in the middle of their fourth-ever season with 50-plus points. A win on Saturday would give them their third-most points in a season. Meanwhile, Real Salt Lake are a point away from tying their best-ever points total (57) in a season.

Honestly, I’ve got my fingers crossed on this one. Both teams score in bunches and give up a ton of goals. They faced each other three times this year already and all three delivered. Colorado won two of those meetings, and RSL won the other. The aggregate over those games came out to Colorado - 8, RSL - 8.

Technically the most important decision of Decision Day

There’s a more obvious scenario we at least need to talk through. The most notable decision on Decision Day will be who gets the final home playoff spot in the East.

Orlando City SC are two points ahead of fifth-place New York City FC. The Lions just need a win over Atlanta United to ensure they clinch fourth place (6 pm ET | MLS Season Pass). With a loss, things suddenly get interesting. There’s no guarantee NYCFC pull out a win at a streaky CF Montréal side (6 pm ET | MLS Season Pass), but the odds are still in NYCFC’s favor.

If you’re Orlando, you better go ahead and see this through. Not just because it would seal a home playoff spot, but because a win or a draw would ensure Atlanta United miss the playoffs. There are long-term rivalry bragging rights at stake.

Philadelphia sign Rafanello to contract extension: The Philadelphia Union have signed homegrown midfielder Jeremy Rafanello to a contract extension through 2026 with options for 2027-28. Rafanello, 24, has 0g/1a in 15 all-competition appearances with the Union.

• The last MVP Power Rankings of the Year.
• Who will claim the Eastern Conference Wild Card spots?

Good luck out there. Be prepared for success.