One game to close the weekend
Vancouver host LAFC tonight at 7:30 pm ET. It’s the last match before we reach Decision Day.
USMNT knock off Panama to kick off Pochettino era
The Mauricio Pochettino era got off to a solid start with the US men’s national team’s 2-0 win against Panama in an international friendly at Austin FC’s Q2 Stadium Saturday night. Yunus Musah and Ricardo Pepi scored for the USMNT, which heads to Guadalajara to take on rival Mexico in the final friendly of the October window on Tuesday.
Just one game to get to right quick. It won’t take long.
Columbus is a better soccer team than New England. Who could have possibly guessed?
They were off and running after DeJuan Jones’ opener. Alexandru Matan delivered a hat trick in this one as the Crew inched one step closer to potentially jumping the Galaxy in the overall standings on Decision Day. Remember, the team with the most points hosts MLS Cup. The Crew are one point back of LA and now five points ahead of LAFC.
One other small subplot to keep an eye on: Columbus are now two points behind 2022 CF Montréal in points. A win on Decision Day would make this Wilfried Nancy’s most successful regular season side ever. And they’ve done it while playing every possible game in every competition they’ve been in.
Good soccer team.
There’s a common trope around sports that teams who get hot heading into the playoffs have the best chance of making a run. It’s probably not all that real—survivorship bias is though—but it’s still believable enough to make it worth checking in to see who’s playing well down the stretch. If you’ve been playing terribly going into the playoffs, odds are there really is something genuinely wrong. If you’ve been playing well, maybe you really have figured something out.
With some help from the resources at American Soccer Analysis, here are the playoff teams heating up at the right time.
2.38 points per game post-Leagues Cup
1.71 expected points per game post-Leagues Cup
Hey, so, it really feels like people aren’t talking about this enough. The hottest team in MLS post-Leagues Cup is the team famous for “getting hot at the right time” and making a playoff run. In the last eight games, Seattle are on a league-best 2.38 points per game. Their underlying numbers (see: expected points) have been the fifth-best in the league over that stretch.
They’re getting excellent results thanks to a defense that’s been maybe the best in the league this year. Seattle have allowed just 0.63 points per game over the last eight games while scoring 2.00 goals per game. To be fair, they’ve been good at these things all year, not just the last eight games, but we really need to take a moment to recognize how dangerous they could be in the playoffs. They aren’t going to have anywhere near the attacking firepower to throw haymakers with the LAs, but defense travels and defense can thrive in a single-elimination tournament.
That being said, that defense hasn’t shown up enough against LAFC the past few years to make you think anything would be different if they met in the playoffs. The Sounders are going to have to kill the boogeyman to make another run to MLS Cup. Count them out at your own peril though.
2.25 points per game
1.80 expected points per game
No one has been hotter in the East than Orlando. Yes, the easy schedule over the last couple of months has helped, but still, you don’t see anyone else in the East putting up their combo of points per game and underlying numbers. Plus, they’re even starting to prove they can do it against some of the big boys in the East. They gave the Crew a fight despite going down big early and then, a few weeks later, took down FC Cincinnati.
Last year, Orlando’s second-half run felt like smoke and mirrors. They overperformed their underlyings by an absurd amount for half a season. When they ducked out of the playoffs, it didn’t come as a surprise to anyone paying attention.
This is starting to feel a bit different though. They’re earning points at a high clip while posting the second-best underlying numbers in the league since Leagues Cup. It seems like an eventual 1-seed vs. 4-seed matchup between the Lions and Inter Miami is in the cards. If it happens, Orlando may have a real shot at pulling off something special. The only problem is…
2.25 points per game
1.00 expected points per game
Yeah, they’re technically hot. Yeah, they’re technically outperforming math by an amount we’ve never seen and will never see again. Yes, I’m annoyed. They’ll probably make it to MLS Cup with like three shots per game that all go in somehow. It’s best you just accept it.
2.00 points per game
1.90 expected points per game
The best underlying numbers in the league since Leagues Cup belong to Minnesota United. Yes, Kelvin Yeboah has been outstanding. We’re not going to gloss over seven goals in seven starts from a new DP. But you don’t just start creating a ton of chances and playing league-best defense because of a new No. 9. Whatever demons this team had in the summer have been exorcised and they suddenly look like an even better version of the very good Loons side we saw at the start of the season.
Decision Day will be huge for this group. As of this morning, they can finish as high as fifth or as low as eighth. Avoiding the Wild Card and an early-round matchup with one of the LAs could be huge. Or maybe they’re just good enough (and hot enough) at this point to take down either one of the big bads in the West.
LA Galaxy | 2.14 points per game | 1.75 expected points per game
Columbus Crew | 2.00 points per game | 1.59 expected points per game
We have to mention them as the two other teams picking up 2.00 points per game or more since Leagues Cup. They’ve been “hot” all year though. Not much more to say.
- Charles Boehm has three takeaways from Mauricio Pochettino's winning USMNT debut.
Good luck out there. Get three when you can.
