Ten MLS teams are left in the Leagues Cup Round of 16. Some of them are better than others. Some have an easier path than others. Only one of them can end up winning a trophy.
They’ve already pulled off one big knockout round upset. Their 3-1 over Portland may have been the most surprising result of the entire Round of 32. But now they have to pull off the biggest possible upset: They’ll face Club América on Tuesday. And that would be just the start of a brutal run to the end of the tournament.
From there they’d face the winner of Toluca/Colorado, then likely have Seattle, Pumas or LAFC waiting for them in the semifinal. They basically have to pull off the biggest upset of the tournament four more times.
Crazier things have happened, I guess. But St. Louis are 13th in the West for a reason.
The Rapids didn’t impress early, but found some traction in their final group stage match, edging Club León in penalties before knocking off another LIGA MX foe in FC Juárez in the Round of 32. They’ll need to be much, much better from here on out though. Toluca is waiting for them in the Round of 16 and then it’s either Club América or a St. Louis team that’s touched by God. Their next two matches are as tough as it gets. And that would be before the semifinal and final.
The Rapids are a good team. I’m fascinated to see if they can keep up the momentum they were building during the MLS season paused and if that momentum leads to a home playoff spot. But a run to the Leagues Cup final feels like a long shot.
Don’t count out the Sounders, right?
I’m not sure how much stock to put into their 3-1 win over the Galaxy, but it certainly eased any serious worries after their rough performance against Necaxa in the group stage. Now they have to build on that win—once again, without Pedro de la Vega available—and see if they can finally turn the corner on a season that they can’t seem to pull out of first gear.
They’ll need to take down Pumas first and then LAFC are probably waiting for them on the other side in the quarterfinals. Then it’s either Toluca or Club América, etc. etc. You get it at this point. This side of the bracket is hard.
But Pumas are beatable and the Sounders still have plenty of quality on their roster. LAFC present a more difficult challenge, but at least they’re an enemy Seattle will know. A semifinal run is at least plausible. At that point, maybe the Sounders will have finally found what they’ve been missing.
Isn’t it exciting to be out in the world doing things sometimes?
(They’ve technically beaten LAFC once this year and then there is at least one timeline where they beat LAFC and take down Seattle/Pumas and look I’m happy for them that they’ve come even this far. It feels like a deserved light in the darkness for a team that isn’t nearly as bad as their record.)
LAFC somehow managed to draw the probable Wooden Spoon winners in the Round of 16. After that, it could be Pumas or a Seattle team they blew out in a 3-0 win back on July 20 just before Leagues Cup began. Their path to the semifinal is as straightforward as they could have hoped for.
From there, though, we’d find out a lot about this LAFC team’s standing in the region. Remember, the last time they went up against one of the very best teams these two leagues have to offer, they were boatraced by Columbus in LA. Would it be the same if they came up against América or Toluca in the semifinal? What about Columbus in the final? We know LAFC have had a recent history of making it all the way to the finish line and coming up just short. Is this the moment they overcome that final hurdle for the first time since MLS Cup 2022?
It seems possible. Their path is kinder than others.
Ok, well, now we’re on the other side of the bracket, and, for big-time teams like FC Cincinnati, I would politely call this side “extremely manageable” comparatively.
First, Cincy get to take on a Union side that looks a lot more like itself than it did a few weeks ago, but has still had a nightmare of a year. From there, they’d take on a Cruz Azul side that has been wholly unimpressive through their first three games of this competition. All three have gone to penalties and they’ve only scored once. They’re outstanding defensively so far this year, but they haven’t found the gas the last couple of weeks in attack.
After that, they’ll get one of Tigres/Columbus/Miami. For Cincy, all of those feel at least beatable, even if they wouldn’t be favored against Tigres or Columbus. There’s a real road to a trophy here for the Garys.
Ok, take what we said about Cincy and then flip it for the Union. They have to take down Cincy, then face Cruz Azul for a second time, then one of Tigres/Columbus/Miami and then whoever comes out of the gauntlet on the other side of the bracket. The Union have been looking much sharper lately thanks in part to a breakout performance from striker Tai Baribo the last few weeks, but there are still genuine problems here. This is an uphill battle.
Then again, they’re hot at the right time. Maybe that’s all it really takes. Maybe the more curious question is if they can take this momentum back to MLS play once their tournament run ends.
Tigres, then Columbus/Miami, then whoever comes out of that FC Cincinnati/Cruz Azul/Philadelphia group. NYCFC are a good team. This is a big, big ask.
The Crew might be the best team in Concacaf right now. We won’t know for sure until they potentially go up against the likes of Tigres and Club América later in this tournament, but it’s hard to imagine anyone playing better. What’s amazing is they keep adding firepower on top of what they already have. Somehow, they’re improving on maybe the most impressive on-field product in MLS history that isn’t 2019 LAFC.
That being said, their road to the end is as difficult as it gets. They’ll face Inter Miami on Tuesday, the winner of Tigres/NYCFC next, then it’s likely Cincy or Cruz Azul, and then you’re looking at América, Toluca or LAFC in the final. None of those are straightforward. Even for a team as good as Columbus.
All that being said, I’m not going to be the one to suggest they’ll come up short.
I don’t think they’re going to win the whole thing which means they probably will.
Good luck out there. Plan your week.
