Conference Finals tonight
Hey. Today, we find out who will be in MLS Cup presented by Audi on Dec. 7. Orlando host New York at 7:30 pm ET (MLS Season Pass) and LA host Seattle at 10 pm ET (MLS Season Pass).
Herdman resigns as Toronto FC head coach
John Herdman has resigned as head coach of Toronto FC. Herdman departs following his first full season at Toronto, which saw the club miss the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs after finishing 11th in the Eastern Conference table (11W-19L-4D record, 37 points).
San Jose announces end-of-year roster moves
After "winning" the Wooden Spoon in 2024 and allowing an MLS-record 78 goals, the San Jose Earthquakes have started to flip their roster under new head coach/sporting director Bruce Arena. Take a look at the moves here.
You never know what’s going to happen in a single MLS game. The variance levels are too high and the league tilts toward chaos more often than not. Still, we might as well take our best shot at guessing what might happen on at least a few of the possible timelines in front of us. We’ve got nothing to lose. We don’t have to try and make MLS Cup today. We’re in no matter what.
Anyway, here’s how each team could get the job done today.
NEW YORK RED BULLS WIN IF…
If the game is decided on a couple of favorable bounces. The Red Bulls are fully prepared to try and pull Orlando into the mud and see if one or two bounces go their way. The whole setup this postseason is predicated on trying to make life miserable for their opponent, winning a second ball at the right time and capitalizing on it. That takes a bit of good luck and a whole lot of effort to win as many scraps for the ball as possible.
They’ve shown they have that little extra effort over three games so far this postseason. That effort frustrated Columbus and it got them out to an early, game-state-shifting, two-goal lead over NYCFC.
The problem here is that Orlando are going to be just fine in a mud-wrestling contest. They'll probably welcome it. It’s a real “I’m not locked in here with you, you’re locked in here with me” deal. But that still means that a set-piece goal, or a screamer from Felipe Carballo, or a well-executed counter-attack, could flip the game on its head and keep it there. Odds are that there just won’t be many opportunities for either team. That gives New York a chance on the road.
ORLANDO CITY WIN IF…
If they beat New York at their own game. That doesn’t mean Orlando will suddenly start playing Energy Drink Soccer, but, like an autopsy for a skateboarder who tried to do a kickflip on top of a moving train, you can find trace amounts of Red Bull in their system. At least in the sense that they’re more than happy to sit deep and make life frustrating for you if given the chance.
The question is if and they’ll get the opportunity to do it. They went into a shell against Atlanta after going up 1-0. They knew full well the Five Stripes wouldn’t break them down. Will they be able to do the same against New York? Maybe they’ll decide to sit a little deeper from the jump and let New York spend some uncomfortable time on the ball.
Oscar Pareja has a few tactical choices to make today. Each of them are likely going to be predicated on what makes New York the least happy to be on the pitch today. We’ll see if that translates to joy for Orlando in what should be a rock fight.
SEATTLE SOUNDERS WIN IF…
If their defense really is that elite. We’ve talked for a while now about how good Seattle have been defensively. They allowed fewer goals than anyone this year. The underlying numbers back them up there, too. They had the lowest xG allowed of any team in MLS.
Is that enough to slow down the Galaxy? It might be, especially if their backline is actually healthy. After all, it’s not like the Galaxy have faced stalwart defensive sides this postseason. Colorado forgot how to play defense months ago and Minnesota United just don’t have the same defensive talent as Seattle. What if LA’s 15 goals in three Audi MLS Cup Playoff games were a little more fluky than the hype would let us realize?
It’s possible that running into a truly great defensive team slows LA’s momentum and they never get it back. At that point, a set-piece, an own-goal or any other Sounders Devil Magic-style occurrence that puts the ball over the net could be enough to send Seattle to yet another MLS Cup. The Galaxy are a car that absolutely flies at its top speed. But how are they going to respond if they have to stay in first gear longer than they’re used to?
That being said, it’s not clear if the Galaxy are going to face the best version of Seattle’s defense today. Reed Baker-Whiting and Yeimar are both listed as questionable. Losing one for today would be a tough blow. Losing both would feel catastrophic… or just another way to activate whatever powers let Seattle win in ways we’ve never considered before in critical playoff moments.
LA GALAXY WIN IF…
If everything goes as planned. It’s been hard to analyze the Galaxy beyond just a bunch of jumping up and down while making loud whooping noises and pointing. What analysis do you really need from us? They have a ton of dudes who are great on the ball and score a bunch of goals. Don’t overthink it.
But we haven’t seen them off-schedule this postseason. What happens if today is the day that, through some combination of Seattle’s defending and LA coming out flat, the Galaxy aren’t firing on all cylinders in attack? Can they brute force their way to a win? Do they have it in them to win the kind of game where they aren’t out front and pulling away the majority of the time?
There’s a decent chance we have to find out tonight. And with their clear defensive flaws still lurking under the surface, I’m not sure how successful LA will be if they have to move to plan B.
Make it 13 coaches in their first season next year now. Who knows? We might not be done. But hey, we’re going to stay consistent on our coaching opinions either way. The bottom line is that if the roster isn’t where it needs to be, the results won’t be where they need to be either. Right now, Toronto’s roster isn’t there and indications are it won’t be where it needs to be for a while. It’s not great that they have to keep hitting reset on their head coach, but it may not have really mattered anyway whether they had Herman or not while they’re stuck in roster-building purgatory.
St. Louis CITY sign center back Baumgartl: St. Louis CITY SC have signed center back Timo Baumgartl. The 28-year-old former German youth international is under contract through 2026 with an option for 2027. He will hold an international roster spot.
LAFC transfer midfielder Darboe to Bayern Munich: LAFC have transferred homegrown midfielder Bajung Darboe to German Bundesliga side FC Bayern Munich. The 18-year-old US youth international becomes the third-ever MLS homegrown player to join Bayern, following Alphonso Davies (Vancouver Whitecaps FC) and Justin Che (FC Dallas).
- LA and Seattle are set to battle for MLS Cup hosting rights.
- Orlando and New York are both looking to make history.
- Here’s every coaching change in MLS so far in 2024. There are…a lot.
Good luck out there. Call your loved ones and tell them it’s Conference Finals day.
