Thirty-five Matchdays into the season and I’d like to think we have a decent read on what’s happening in this league. There isn’t much to learn and there aren’t many questions to answer at this point. We do still need to sort a few things out, though.
The most important of those is whatever is going on in the West. We know the Audi 2024 MLS Cup Playoff teams. We have no idea what order they’ll end up in at the end of the season. Seven points separate second place and ninth place with three games remaining for most teams.
A similar scenario is happening in the East between spots four and seven. Those aren’t as meaningful. Put them in whatever order you want and Inter Miami, Columbus Crew and FC Cincinnati are still going to be heavy favorites to make it to MLS Cup. The West can look to the two LA teams as their favorites, but almost all nine playoff teams have the firepower relative to the rest of the conference to make a run to MLS Cup. Even Vancouver and Minnesota have a shot. Every team is good enough to get hot at the right time and every team is volatile enough to falter.
That’s why the final standings are going to be so critical. Being at home may be the only true difference-maker when the time comes. So, one more time before the end of the year, I figured we’d take a look at where each Western Conference team stands heading into the final 50 meters of the season.
52 points | Remaining: vs. STL, @ SKC, @ VAN, vs. SJ
LAFC seemingly pulled themselves out of a tailspin last week. They eventually got the job done in the US Open Cup Final against Sporting KC and turned around and pulled out their most impressive road win of the season in Cincinnati. Now they get to attack a Charmin-soft final stretch with a renewed sense of confidence.
Thanks in part to having a game in hand, they’ll cruise to a second-place finish barring multiple disasters. Once we reach the playoffs, they’ll be the favorites to make it to MLS Cup. Yes, over the first-place Galaxy. LAFC have proven time and time again they’re the team to beat in the West. The Galaxy still have to prove they can make it to a final.
I mean, technically the Galaxy still have to prove they can win the West. We didn’t include them in this roundup, but with LAFC potentially winning out and taking 12 points on the table, the Galaxy still have some work to do over their final three games to ensure they don’t miss out on the top spot in the conference.
52 points | Remaining: vs. MIN, @ SJ, vs. VAN
RSL have been gifted two winnable home games and a road trip to San Jose to close the season. They won’t be able to outrun LAFC for the second spot thanks to LAFC’s game in hand, but they could still feasibly pull out a seven or nine-point run here to close the season.
They really kind of need to for anyone to feel all that great about them as they head into the playoffs. Their six games since crashing out of the Leagues Cup group stage haven’t inspired confidence that a new-look side without Andrés Gómez is going to thrive in the playoffs. Those six games include bad losses to San Jose and Houston plus draws with Portland and Austin. They did pick up wins over New England and Dallas, but a lot of teams have done that this year. Honestly, RSL haven’t had a win worth talking about since a 3-2 victory over Houston back on July 3.
If they’re going to fix this, they need Chicho Arango to get hot again. He’s scored once since June 1. That’s an 11-game, months-long stretch that’s included injuries and suspension. They need him on the field and executing again or none of what happens over the next three games will matter.
50 points | Remaining: vs. LA, vs. SEA, @ ATX
That’s not the kindest schedule, is it? They can at least take solace in having two home games and in the idea the Galaxy are mostly safe at the top of the West and won’t be going full throttle. That Seattle game is going to be a true six-pointer no matter what though. It may be the difference between a home playoff spot and finishing seventh.
They may even have to worry about staying ahead of the Wild Card teams at this point. A 4-1 loss to Sporting KC a couple of weeks ago and this weekend’s 3-0 loss to Minnesota were concerning, to say the least. The defensive/goalkeeping issues are still real and pop up at unexpected times a little too often.
Seattle Sounders - 50 points | Remaining: @ VAN, @ COL, vs. POR
Well, that’s even meaner, isn’t it? The Sounders have to go on the road for two six-pointers and then take on a Portland side that seems to have their number more often than not lately. Based on schedule alone, it would be fair to worry about the Sounders down the stretch.
Then again, since a terrible week that included a USOC loss to LAFC and a 1-0 loss to Portland, they’ve been rolling… other than a weird 2-2 draw with San Jose. They’ve really been playing effective soccer for a long while now. They’ve earned a ton of points since a slow start and seem to be able to outlast anyone that isn’t LAFC and Portland.
Still, I have no idea if this team is actually good. They look like the other Sounders teams that have thrived on crushing pragmatism at times, but something still feels off. Even with Jordan Morris finding a home at striker, something doesn’t seem to click in attack. Maybe that’s too vibes-based a take. Maybe it doesn’t matter when you’ve put up the best defensive performance in the conference since the midway point of the season.
48 points | Remaining: vs. NE, @ STL, vs. LA
The bottom line here is Houston absolutely have to take six points this week. There’s zero reason to mess around with Revs and St. Louis sides essentially playing for nothing. They may even be able to catch the Galaxy playing for nothing but pride if LA clinch the top spot in the West by then. This is a favorable schedule regardless of any lingering concerns about their ability to put the ball in the back of the net.
47 points | Remaining: vs. SEA, vs. MIN, vs. LAFC, @ RSL
Having a game in hand is great when you don’t have to face three of the best teams in your conference and one of the hottest teams in the conference four games in a row. When you do have to face that four-game stretch, an extra game doesn’t feel all that helpful. The Whitecaps are going to need their DP trio at their absolute best to take advantage of that extra game. At least they’ll be well-prepared for the playoffs.
45 points | Remaining: @ RSL, @ VAN, vs. STL
The Loons also got dealt a tough hand here. But a six-pointer against Vancouver plus the Whitecaps’ brutal schedule gives them some hope of pulling themselves out of a Wild Card spot. Plus, ya know, finding a DP striker like Kelvin Yeboah who can score seven times in his first six matches helps a lot too. Yeboah is the key here. If he stays hot, the Loons can at least avoid a Wild Card game. That could go a long way. Even if they’d likely have their hands very full against an LA team in Round One either way.
45 points | Remaining: vs. ATX, vs. DAL, @ SEA
Two games against Texas teams who are pretty much done for the year and a Seattle team they seem to have an edge on. They could easily pull out nine points here.
But there’s a reason a team as good as Portland isn’t just out of a Wild Card spot already. You never know what you’re going to see from this group. The best version of this side is as good as anyone. The bad version, the one that can’t defend and control games in key moments, shows up more often than anyone in Portland would like.
- Matt Doyle’s Sunday column is up and good.
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