With the international break at hand, we figured we’d take a look at each remaining playoff team and gauge their hopes of winning an MLS Cup. We’ll go from lowest seed to highest seed, starting with the East. Yesterday, Seattle. Today, the Galaxy.
The path behind
The season didn’t quite end how LA had hoped. They were on the verge of clinching the top spot in the West before giving up a late winner to Houston 100 minutes into their final match of the season. Everything else though? That couldn’t have gone better. The Galaxy turned into an elite attacking side thanks to the addition of wingers Joseph Paintsil and Gabriel Pec. Paintsil scored 10 goals and delivered 10 assists on the year. Pec put up 16 goals and 14 assists in his first season in MLS on his way to winning Newcomer of the Year. And the Galaxy became the first team in MLS history to have four players score 10 or more goals in a season.
So far in the Audi 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs, they haven’t slowed down in attack. They pummeled the poor Rapids in 5-0 and 4-1 Round One wins. With Miami and Columbus gone, they are by far the most dangerous attacking team left in the postseason.
They’re also a volatile defensive team. Those issues haven’t gone away. If we’re looking at underlying numbers, LA weren’t just one of the worst defensive teams among remaining playoff sides, but one of the worst defensive teams in the league, period. Per American Soccer Analysis, only New England, Montréal, San Jose, St. Louis, Dallas and Austin allowed more xG per game. LA and Inter Miami are tied for xG allowed this season. That’s… not good company when you’re trying to make a playoff run. Just ask Inter Miami.
The path ahead
Does all that really matter when you have Riqui Puig pulling the strings? What about when you catch a break in the playoffs and end up facing an easier schedule than you would have if you had finished first? LA already dealt with a zombified Rapids side that hadn’t done anything since Leagues Cup. Now they get a shot at sixth-seeded Minnesota United rather than having to deal with Seattle.
That’s not to be dismissive of Minnesota. They may not be Seattle, but there haven’t been many teams with better records down the stretch. In fact, only Miami and Seattle earned more points after Leagues Cup. The Loons are still a better matchup than the Sounders, but they aren’t a pushover.
Even with a slightly easier path to the Conference Final, there may still be consequences for their Decision Day flop. If LA make it past Minnesota, they’ll very likely face off against LAFC in an all-timer of an El Tráfico. Because they couldn’t hold onto a draw in Houston, LAFC would host.
Can they do it?
On their best day, very few teams in the league can slow down the Galaxy attack. If they’re firing on all cylinders the rest of the way, they can do it. Frankly, they will do it. However…
Why won’t they do it?
Inconsistency is a real issue for this team. Defending is a real issue for this team. If the attack falters in any of their three possible games ahead, then you can’t rely on their defending to bail them out. That means they have to be perfect the rest of the way. Perfect doesn’t come easy in the playoffs.
That being said, if they make it past LAFC, they’ll be heavy favorites in MLS Cup on Dec. 7. They’re so close to being back on top.
What will decide whether or not they do it?
- Is the defense good enough? Or is the attack good enough for that not to matter?
- That’s kind of it.
- Yep.
- Literally the whole deal.
- Kind of the whole deal for every team, but more so for the Galaxy.
- They should try not letting the other team score more goals than them.
Good luck out there. Prepare for fireworks.
