Leagues Cup semifinals on Wednesday
Columbus host Philadelphia at 7:30 pm ET and LAFC welcome Colorado at 10 pm ET. Check out the full schedule here.
It’s no secret. Colorado and Philadelphia need to be at their best (and maybe their luckiest) to reach the Leagues Cup final. But, hey, they’ve made it this far. And both have already claimed some impressive bounties. The Rapids took down Club León, Juárez, Toluca and Club América on their way to the semifinal. Philly got the better of FC Cincinnati. What’s one more upset, right?
Well… it’s actually kind of a lot. Before the tournament began we listed the MLS teams we thought could actually end up winning this whole thing. The teams with no apparent flaws who were in the kind of form that propels you to a trophy. We ended up with two sides: LAFC and Columbus.
They’re the best of the best in MLS right now and, since LIGA MX sides are just now getting started with their seasons, they’re probably the best of the best in Concacaf too. They’re sharper, more talented and more cohesive than everyone else at this point. And now, Colorado and Philadelphia will have to go on the road to pull off huge wins against teams that have played in more major games than anyone over the last two years.
Full credit to the Rapids, of course. Beating América in a kind of, sort of pseudo-road game is a win on par with taking down LAFC on the road. It’s just going to be really, really tough to pull off twice. Here’s (just some of) what needs to happen for the Rapids and Union to do something special.
The Rapids need Zack Steffen
Steffen’s shot-stopping numbers have been rough for the majority of the season. He’s been near or at the bottom of the league this year, but there’s been a slight trend upward over the past few months. It’s not a coincidence that the Rapids as a whole have looked better over that stretch.
Nothing captured that upward trend better than their clean-sheet, penalty-shootout win over América that saw Steffen take the winning penalty. The stats are slightly better. The vibes are totally different. That counts for something.
They’ll need him to keep trending upward against LAFC. Regardless of how well Colorado play, there will be opportunities for Steffen to make an impact. LAFC have too much firepower. Denis Bouanga gets superpowers in Leagues Cup and now he and Hugo Lloris have figured out they don’t even need the rest of their teammates to create chances. There’s a reason LAFC have scored 14 goals over five Leagues Cup games this year. Steffen will need a few moments of magic to keep the Rapids in this one.
The Rapids need to find control
In those five games that have led to 14 goals for LAFC, they’ve had: 34% possession against Tijuana, 60% possession against Vancouver, 39% possession against Austin, 49% possession against San Jose and 40% possession against Seattle. The only game they didn’t win by multiple goals came against Vancouver.
Meanwhile, the Rapids also ended just one of their five games with more possession than their opponent. Something will have to give here. They’ll either need to be wholly risk-averse and keep conceding as much possession as possible while finding a way to sit deep and still keep LAFC quiet, or they’ll need to be brave (and a little crazy) on the ball often while maintaining a rest defense shape that keeps them from being carved open on the counter. Either way, LAFC are a team that can start playing downhill in a hurry. Once you’re out of control, it’s over.
The Rapids have two difficult paths to choose from here. The better one on paper is probably to sit deeper and hope for Club América part two. But that’s a big ask to the soccer gods. Plus Olivier Giroud and Kei Kamara certainly wouldn’t mind spending plenty of time in the Rapids’ 18, even if they’re surrounded by defenders.
The Union need another Tai Baribo (and another José Martínez)
I’m going to level with y’all. I don’t know if there’s anything more to the Union’s upset keys than “ball goes in.” Either they’re going to hit some bangers from deep to turn this game on its head, or the Crew are going to control possession, create more chances and ease on to the next round.
The Union have certainly been sharper over the last few weeks. However, Tai Baribo’s red card in the quarterfinals may have sealed their fate here. He’s been carrying the Union attack this tournament with a Leagues Cup-best five goals. Without him, it’s tough to see who steps up enough times to make up for his absence.
Then there’s the fact José Martinéz has likely played his last game with the Union before heading to Corinthians. Someone - likely Leon Flach - will have to step up at the base of the Union diamond to help slow down the Crew attack. This whole thing is a big ask.
Sometimes the ball goes in, though. And sometimes you have Andre Blake in goal putting in the kind of performance we saw against Mazatlán. It’s not impossible (It’s just unlikely).
- Zack Steffen is helping to lead the Rapids on a magical run.
Good luck out there. Stay alive.
