The Daily Kickoff

Your Friday Kickoff: Which remaining games will have the biggest postseason impact?

J. Sam Jones

What you need to know

Matchday 37 tomorrow

One last full weekend slate before Decision Day. Check out the full schedule here.

The most important games left this season

We’re not just in the homestretch we’re in the final 50 meters. We only have this weekend, a collection of catch-up games and Decision Day left. There’s still plenty to decide though, even with the Supporters’ Shield already clinched. We have to sort out Audi 2024 MLS Cup Playoff positioning before we find out who’s going to win MLS Cup presented by Audi, the most important trophy in the league.*

*(Yes, we’re going to fight about it next week.)

Charlotte FC vs. CF Montréal | 7:30 pm ET | Oct. 5

Hey, uh, have y’all noticed that CF Montréal is suddenly in the driver's seat for a Wild Card spot? What’s even crazier is that they’re only five points back from seventh place. And you’ll never guess who happens to be in seventh place.

Montréal, a team we all left for dead after a 5-0 loss to NEW ENGLAND, has taken 13 points from their last five games. Three of those 13 points came against Charlotte. If Montréal can continue to ride the heater that Josef Martínez and Caden Clark are suddenly on and pick up a win against seventh-place Charlotte, they’ll be within two points of The Crown heading into Decision Day. They could also go ahead and seal a spot in the playoffs here. Suddenly, we’re aiming a lot higher with Montréal.

On the Charlotte side, they’re still capable of catching up to fifth-place NYCFC and maybe even fourth-place Orlando with some help. That’s a long shot, but they’re still playing for the opportunity to avoid Miami and Columbus in Round One.

FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC | 7:30 pm ET | Oct. 5

The New Yorks and Charlotte will have a close eye on this one. Orlando City have been playing the best ball in the East outside of the top three. They’re still catchable though. An Orlando loss would make the East even more cluttered heading into Decision Day.

It would also tell us a little more about an Orlando side we’re still unsure about heading into the playoffs. They’ve earned a ton of points over the second half of the season. Their best win in that stretch—and only win over a team above the Wild Card line–came against now seventh-place Charlotte. They’ve still got to prove they can hang with big boys before we can even consider them a real threat to make a run.

For Cincinnati, this one is about holding out hope that Columbus will stumble down the stretch and open the window for Cincy to jump into second place on Decision Day. Remember, we’re talking about homefield advantage for a Hell Is Real meeting in the playoffs. That edge could be huge.

Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Minnesota United FC | 7:30 pm ET | Oct. 5

About as true as a six-pointer as it gets. Vancouver are right above the Wild Card line, Minnesota are right below it. While the Whitecaps do have a game in hand, they’re only one point ahead of the Loons heading into this weekend. There’s a decent chance whoever wins this one gets to avoid the Wild Card game. It’s like a play-in to avoid a play-in.

Portland and Colorado will also be keeping a close eye on this one. The Timbers could be the ones jumping above the line with a win this weekend and a tie in this game. A Rapids loss and a Minnesota win could put the Rapids on the brink of falling into the Wild Card come Decision Day. Minnesota coming good has somehow made the West even weirder and I’m wholly grateful for it.

Colorado Rapids vs. Seattle Sounders FC | 7:30 pm ET | Oct. 5

Seriously, the Rapids have to be careful. A loss in this one and suddenly an eight-place Vancouver could be three points behind them with a game in hand and a seventh-place Minnesota could be one point behind them heading into Decision Day. Fifth-place Houston, just one point ahead of Colorado heading into this weekend, could be dealing with just as much pressure. They could even be caught by ninth-place Portland if they’re not careful.

Anyway, the Rapids should really consider trying to beat Seattle, in my opinion. The Sounders are a little safer, but still fighting to earn a home playoff spot. Honestly, we probably aren’t talking enough about how remarkable it is that a Seattle side that’s dealt with injuries and players aging out and red cards and bad luck all season has just suddenly popped up in third place in the West on 53 points through 32 games. I don’t really know how we got here.

But it’s following a familiar pattern. Always be afraid of second-half Seattle. Especially in the playoffs and especially with a bunch of home games. There’s a small but still real chance that they could end up in second place if LAFC falters over their (extremely easy) final stretch and the Sounders pick up wins over Colorado and Portland.

That probably won’t happen, but still, a couple of wins over good teams and a third-place finish would maybe change some hearts and minds about this team’s playoff hopes at just the right time. Of course, they could also just as easily end up stuck below fourth place. Have we mentioned the West is cluttered?

Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. LAFC | 7:30 pm ET | Oct. 13

Both Vancouver and LAFC have had a game in hand for weeks now. It’s made it tough to assess exactly where they are in the standings. Well, this is the game in hand. And it will play a critical role in where the Whitecaps end up in the standings and in whether or not LAFC has a shot at finishing at the top of the West.

CF Montréal vs. New York City FC | 6 pm ET | Oct. 19

We’ve already mentioned that Montréal is suddenly red hot. But it’s worth pointing out that New York City FC are looking a lot more like the best version of themselves lately. Huge wins over the Red Bulls and FC Cincinnati over the last week have been head-turning. If they take care of business against Nashville this weekend, we’ll officially be able to hand them the “Getting Hot At The Right Time” merit badge heading into Decision Day.

A home playoff spot will likely be on the line for NYCFC here. A playoff berth and maybe seventh place might be possible for Montréal.

Houston Dynamo vs. LA Galaxy | 9 pm ET | Oct. 19

There’s a chance the Galaxy need this to hold on to the top spot in the West. LAFC’s game in hand will be gone by then, but for now, it’s still giving them some hope. That and a schedule that’s as gentle as it gets. It’s extremely plausible that LAFC takes 12 points over their last four games. That would put real pressure on the Galaxy to win out too. Or at least take four points from their last two games. It’s the only way for us to avoid having to dig into the tiebreaker rules.

Oh, and Houston are also going to be right in the middle of the mess in the West. Same as it ever was.

Real Salt Lake vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 9 pm ET | Oct. 19

Somehow Vancouver are playing in three straight games that will be incredibly meaningful for the Western Conference standings. We always said the year would come down to the league’s most important team, Vancouver Whitecaps FC, and here we are.

Seattle Sounders FC vs. Portland Timbers | 9 pm ET | Oct. 19

The ideal scenario here is that we get some true MLS magic to set up a second-place finish for Seattle and a seventh-place finish for Portland. A best-of-three series in Round One between these two might break both fan bases.

The more likely option though is that this just has a lot of consequences for the home playoff spots in the West and the Wild Card spots. Seattle would certainly love to make sure that Portland has to play a Wild Card game.

Other Things

Inter Miami's Messi named Player of the Matchday: Lionel Messi's Supporters' Shield-clinching performance for Inter Miami CF has earned the Argentine legend Player of the Matchday presented by Michelob Ultra honors for Matchday 36. Messi scored a highlight-reel brace as Miami lifted the Shield for the first time in club history after Wednesday's 3-2 win at Columbus Crew.

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