Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle

What every Eastern Conference team needs in the summer transfer window

Doyle - FC Cincinnati - Boupendza

The MLS summer transfer & trade window opens on Thursday (for American teams, anyway; it popped open for the Canadian trio last week), which means the silly season is officially here.

With that in mind, I’m offering you a primer on all 29 teams’ needs, as well as the high-leverage roster mechanisms – Designated Player slots and U22 Initiative slots – each team has on hand to use.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The new roster rules went live Thursday, making official some long-reported changes.

Note the current restrictions on U22 slot usage are expected to unwind a bit at some point this summer, though exactly when remains up in the air. For now, I think it’s safe to assume every team will have access to all three U22 slots by the end of the window, no matter the status of their DPs. But for safety, I’ve noted the teams that would need the new rules to take effect before they could add extra U22 signings.

Eastern Conference today, Western Conference tomorrow. In we go:

Top Priority: A centerpiece No. 10

  • Open DP slots: 2, or potentially all 3
  • Open U22 Initiative slots: 0

The Five Stripes already made a splash this window by selling their star DP No. 9 and star DP No. 10 for something north of $30 million combined. That could reach $40 million if Thiago Almada hits some incentives, and they could go north of $50 million outbound this window if the Caleb Wiley deal goes through (as expected).

That’s a lot of cash to play with both short-term – they need to try to salvage this season – and long-term. Basically, Garth Lagerwey will be looking for a No. 10 who can do for this year’s Atlanta side what Nico Lodeiro did for the 2016 Seattle side.

They’ve already reportedly bid something in the $10 million range for Russian playmaker Aleksei Miranchuk of Atalanta, who fits the mold of what Lagerwey looks for in a key signing in that he’s in his absolute prime. You know what you’re going to get from a signing like that, and can plan for the next half-decade around him.

In other words, don’t expect any more massive DP swings on young players with upside like Almada and Ezequiel Barco before him. That is what the U22 slots will be used for henceforth (as soon as Santiago Sosa and Franco Ibarra are moved along, anyway).

I also would expect a veteran No. 9 added this summer, possibly on a six-month DP deal while they figure out a long-term plan to execute either this winter or next summer.

Note that Atlanta could open up a third DP slot by buying down center back Stian Gregersen, though I don’t expect that to be part of their summer plans.

Top priority: A playmaker

  • Open DP Slots: 0 at the moment, though they could open 1 up easily
  • Open U22 Initiative slots: 1

Liel Abada is here to stay on one wing, while Karol Swiderski is newly returned. Is the Polish No. 9 the answer up top for Dean Smith, who has been open about wanting a DP to fill that slot? Given how much goalscoring Smith asks of his wingers and how comfortable Swiderski is dropping into being a playmaker – he’s more of a 9.5 rather than a true 9 – it looks like a pretty snug fit to me.

That leaves one DP slot to play with, presuming Charlotte buy down Brecht Dejaegere. I still think that’s the most obvious way to level this team up: buy down Dejaegere and get a high-end No. 10 to play underneath Swiderski, a guy who’s at the level of the likes of Lucho Acosta, Hany Mukhtar, etc.

I have heard whispers, however, that Charlotte’s front office may wish to go in a different direction. Which… I would be a little confused.

Not sure what they’re planning to do with their open U22 slot, though it wouldn’t surprise me if they took a swing at a young European since they’ve hit the jackpot with Adilson Malanda. They will make bank selling the French center back this coming winter, or perhaps next summer, and it makes sense to line up a successor.

Top priority: Do nothing

  • Open DP slots: Potentially 2
  • Open U22 Initiative slots: 0

Yes, they can buy out Xherdan Shaqiri and buy down Gastón Giménez. But they shouldn’t.

EDIT: Mea culpa; Chicago used their buyout on Kacper Przybyłko this past February. I stand by the overarching case below, though.

I know this is not what Chicago Fire fans, nor Chicago Fire management, want to hear. But how many swings are you going to give this front office? What if they make another Shaqiri or Giménez-type signing (as seems likely, given their track record)? Giving the current braintrust room to make more moves like that makes the job less attractive for whoever’s next – and someone eventually has to be next, right?

They got so, so so many chances to build a functional, successful roster and they haven’t managed it. As we head into the home stretch of what seems dead certain to be a seventh straight season without an Audi MLS Cup Playoffs appearance, I hope ownership intends a top-to-bottom reassessment this offseason. If/when that comes, it’ll be better for the long-term health of the club if Hugo Cuypers (a DP signing the current front office, to their credit, got right), Brian Gutiérrez, Chris Brady and a few others are on the books long-term.

Sorry, Fire fans. It’s for the best.

Top priority: A veteran starting CB

  • Open DP slots: Potentially 1
  • Open U22 Initiative slots: 1

Cincy’s window of title contention is open right now, and their main problem is Matt Miazga, the reigning Defender of the Year, is out injured for the season. It’s very, very hard to replace a guy like that.

The hope, then, would be Cincy buy out DP forward Aaron Boupendza and use that open slot to sign a veteran backline organizer like Mats Hummels, Joel Matip or Simon Kjær. Front-load their contracts, maybe, so that they’re a DP for the rest of this season and can then be moved into a TAM slot starting next year?

However they want to arrange this, it’s pretty clearly the most pressing need among the core four Supporters’ Shield contenders right now. If they get the right guy back there to fill Miazga’s shoes, they’re right there with Columbus, Miami and LAFC. If they don’t manage it, I think they’re down a tier.

The open U22 slot is interesting, considering this team doesn’t have any other glaring needs. I could see them sitting on it, or perhaps trying to find the next Yerson Mosquera on an 18-month loan.

Top priority: Nothing, I think?

  • Open DP slots: Potentially 1
  • Open U22 Initiative slots: 1

The Crew didn’t skip a beat after selling Aidan Morris, and very quietly have already upgraded their roster by adding AZ Jackson via trade and signing French midfielder Dylan Chambost. They have depth everywhere and no areas of concern.

If one arises, they can buy down Darlington Nagbe to open a DP slot. But I’m not expecting that.

Right now, the only spot on their depth chart that looks a little thin is right wingback. I could see them using their open U22 slot there, especially since Mo Farsi attracted some overseas interest last winter. But if Issa Tall & Co. use it, I think it’d be more with an eye toward succession planning than any sort of roster adjustment.

Top priority: An actual playmaker

  • Open DP slots: 0
  • Open U22 Initiative slots: 2

D.C. took a chance on Brazilian attacker Gabriel Pirani to be their No. 10 – he sometimes occupies a U22 slot, and other times occupies a TAM slot as a bit of roster arbitrage – and the kid just hasn’t delivered. He is certainly not the only one on this roster to have come up short thus far, but it’s tough to ignore when you’re the guy wearing the No. 10 kit.

I don’t know if the right idea is to try to add another young No. 10 or, instead, to wait until winter and figure out how to use a DP slot there. But they’ve got to do something this window or next.

They also need, I think, better center backs, and should definitely be planning to use one of their open U22 slots there.

The other thing I’d like to see: a return home for Eryk Williamson. Rumors are the Timbers are willing to move the D.C. academy alum, who’d slot nicely into a central midfield in need of a more dynamic ball progressor than the guys who currently occupy those roles.

Top priority: A CB organizer/distributor

  • Open DP slots: 0 (though I have a theory about them opening 1)
  • Open U22 Initiative slots: 0

Can Messi & Co. talk Gerard Pique out of retirement for a few months? Because with Nicolás Freire injured and Tomás Avilés not really ready for prime time, Inter Miami are a commanding CB short of complete.

They are obviously good enough to win multiple trophies anyway. But the difference between Miami being a team that brute forces wins via superior firepower and Miami being a team that plays just about everyone they meet off the pitch is the type of game-controlling center back who distributes the ball with ruthless, metronomic precision.

Sergio Ramos is out of contract, by the way. And it would make me cackle with delight if he and Messi spent their last act on the field together after all their El Clásico battles.

Ok, here’s my theory: I mentioned on Extratime that I’m keeping an eye on the center-forward situation.

Luis Suárez is back and healthy and will likely start 95% of the remaining games this season. If that’s the case, and if Miami’s content to have Shanyder Borgelin and Leo Afonso as the primary back-ups, they could very easily open up a DP slot by dealing Leo Campana within the league.

I think they’d get considerable value in return, and would open up a DP slot that would then allow them to go for a younger, more permanent fix at center back. (Note, however, they’d need the U22 rule change to take effect to pay someone like Rafael Varane, as Inter have already used all three U22 slots and Campana is a Young DP).

For the record, I have not heard a single word about this happening. I just think if the goal is to maximize Messi’s title chances this season, it’s something they’d have to consider.

Top priority: Either extend or trade All-Star CM Mathieu Choinière

  • Open DP slots: 2
  • Open U22 Initiative slots: 0

We all know Montréal aren’t going to go out and add high-priced players. They’re instead trying to find undervalued assets on the global transfer market and build from within via their own academy products and SuperDraft picks. And that’s fine – I like how there are multiple ways to field a competitive team in this league of ours.

It makes it strange, though, that they’ve reached an impasse with Choinière, who’s one of their big success stories. My hunch, however, is they think he’s soaking up minutes that should go to Nathan Saliba and Rida Zouhir instead, and if that’s the case… then so be it. There will be takers within the league – Dallas, Sporting KC, Toronto, St. Louis, Nashville and RBNY all make a ton of sense – who would be more than willing to part with significant value for Choinière.

The same might be true of attacker Kwadwo Opoku, who was perfect for Hernán Losada’s game model but has been relegated to fifth on the forward depth chart under Laurent Courtois.

Collecting General Allocation Money (GAM) from intra-league moves is a very good roster-building approach, especially when your M.O. is to then trade that allocation cash for undervalued guys elsewhere within the league.

Top priority: Sign Patrick Yazbek

  • Open DP slots: 0
  • Open U22 Initiative slots: Potentially 2

If and when the new U22 rules are implemented, Nashville are the team that stand to benefit most simply because their needs are so clear-cut: a central midfield ball progressor (or two) and a young forward to add to the depth chart – or perhaps even win a starting job.

I mention Yazbek in particular because they’ve been linked to him for a while and, well, the cat might’ve been let out of the bag this week. Here’s the scouting report from my guy Ben Wright, who’s been grinding film and data on the kid:

“Pretty forward-thinking box-to-box midfielder. Likes to get wide into the half spaces and hit early balls into the box. Pretty mobile and seems to have a really good engine. Just starting to break into the Australia national team.”

Yazbek fills an obvious need, though they shouldn’t stop there. If either Williamson or Choinière are available, the ‘Yotes should be all over it.

Top priority: A healthy, productive, high-level winger

  • Open DP slots: 1
  • Open U22 Initiative slots: Potentially 2

We’ll let Tom explain:

It’s an obvious addition to make with Tomás Chancalay done for the year and Dylan Borrero still not close to 100% following last year’s ACL tear.

Two months ago, there was a train of thought that New England would potentially buy out Giacomo Vrioni and open that slot as well. But that really doesn’t make much sense to me. The Albanian No. 9 has earned the starting job with 11g/3a across all comps this year and has been the key man of late as New England have tried to turn their season around.

If they get use of those two extra U22 slots, I’d expect one to go to Noel Buck (which would reduce his cap hit and give them more leverage for a potential winter sale) and one to be used on a young center forward, a spot that’s pretty thin on the depth chart behind Vrioni.

Top priority: Trade or transfer Talles Magno

  • Open DP slots: Probably 1
  • Open U22 Initiative slots: 0

I don’t think it’s possible to be any deeper in the doghouse than Magno very obviously is right now. I genuinely think he is one of the most gifted attackers in the league, and I genuinely think he will not play another minute for NYCFC in his career.

I’d love to see some other MLS team make the Pigeons an offer they couldn’t refuse, but it seems much more likely that Talles will end up overseas instead. Oh well.

With that open DP slot… I’m not sure what to expect. NYCFC have depth and talent everywhere, though manager Nick Cushing really does not appear to trust any of his young wingers. Getting a more veteran presence there could force him to keep Santi Rodríguez in the No. 10 role, which is where he’s been at his best this season.

And naturally, when Santi’s been at his best, so has the team overall. So I guess I’ve talked myself into “add a winger Nick Cushing trusts” as the other top priority for this team this window.

Top priority: Reliable, goal-scoring No. 9

  • Open DP slots: 1
  • Open U22 Initiative slots: 1

I mentioned RB Salzburg’s Roko Simic as an obvious target before the season started, and that’s still very much the case. Reports out of Germany have Bochum and Hamburger SV also in the race, so this is by no means a done deal. And as good a prospect as the 20-year-old Croatian youth international is, what he hasn’t been in Austria or Switzerland is a consistent goalscorer. So he might not be the perfect signing.

But it’d be ambitious in a way that aligns with RB Global’s philosophy, and honestly, it’s beyond time to move past Dante Vanzeir. He’s not it.

They also pretty badly need central midfield depth given the sale of Frankie Amaya to Toluca. That’s where I’d expect them to use the open U22 slot.

Top priority: Goal-scoring left winger

  • Open DP slots: 0
  • Open U22 Initiative slots: 1

I kiiiiind of suspect them to forego signing another U22 guy when the roster rules go through and instead move starting d-mid César Araújo back into the open slot. That’d then allow them a little bit more roster flexibility since Araújo would only hit the cap at $200k.

With that flexibility, could they get a left winger more goal-dangerous than Iván Angulo? That’s the most pressing need now that Oscar Pareja has seen the light re: playing Martín Ojeda as a No. 10. And even if Duncan McGuire is sold (as I expect to happen), they have plenty of options at center forward in Ramiro Enrique, Jack Lynn and Luis Muriel.

I wonder what it would take to get, say, Brian Lozano from Atlas?

Top priority: An exorcism

  • Open DP slots: Potentially 2
  • Open U22 Initiative slots: 2

Nothing the Union do this window will really matter much if their previously elite CB pairing of Jakob Glesnes and Jack Elliott can’t break the hex cast upon them by Circe, or Baba Yaga, or Morgan le Fay or whoever. The drop-off from two years ago is beyond explanation, save for being cursed by some sort of deep magic.

If and when they sort that out, I’d say the obvious place to focus is up top, where there needs to be a replacement for Julián Carranza and perhaps a parting of the ways with Mikael Uhre.

It’s not just Uhre and Tai Baribo and the center backs, though: Nobody else on this roster should feel all that comfortable. That’s simply how it goes when you’re dead last in the East after a decade of high-level success.

Top priority: Get a high-level d-mid who can win the ball and run the show

  • Open DP slots: Potentially 1
  • Open U22 Initiative slots: 2

Yeah, this team needs a lot of things. But what they need most is prime Michael Bradley. They’ve theoretically got a DP slot open to find that guy, provided ownership is willing to let the club really spend for the first time since signing current DPs Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernardeschi two years ago.

Know who’d be an absolutely perfect fit? Stephen Eustaquio. The Canadian international – so, you know, a guy who’s incredibly familiar with head coach John Herdman – is in his prime, and is coming off a disappointing season at FC Porto where he lost his starting role in the second half of the year.

Richie Laryea would have to be bought down from his current DP slot and Eustaquio wouldn’t come cheap, but if they get him (or a player like him) this summer, that’s the most important position on the field sorted through 2030.

Of course, with the front office in a bit of turmoil, they may not be inclined to think that far out – both Herdman and GM Jason Hernandez were hired by now-former club president Bill Manning. So there’s a chance that the entire sporting structure is being reassessed and any big moves will have to wait for winter.

EDIT: Just after I finished this blurb, Tommy Scoops broke the news that TFC are adding Henry Wingo, a 28-year-old former Sounders homegrown who’s spent the past five years in Europe, first with Molde in Norway and then with Ferencvárosi of Hungary.

They got him on a free and, as per Tom’s reporting, intend to play him as a right center back in Herdman’s 3-4-2-1. I like this signing a lot.