The data is clear: MLS Cup Playoff upsets are on the outs. Home-field advantage matters (sorry, Portland Timbers).
Last year’s Audi MLS Cup Playoffs saw 20 of 28 home teams win and seven of eight higher seeds advance in Round One. Surprises may be (mostly) a thing of the past as great teams handle business and good (or sometimes just OK) playoff teams go home early.
We’ll see, right? That’s the beauty of the postseason.
Like a meteorologist, I cannot be held accountable for the upset forecasts herein!
Upset Forecast: Five percent chance
If Atlanta United had a 10 percent chance to make the playoffs on Decision Day, their odds of knocking off Inter Miami in a three-game series are depreciably lower. Rob Valentino and the boys are in FEA mode – ask Tom Brady what that stands for – but now they must go mano-a-mano with the most talented team this league has ever seen.
So how can the Five Stripes shock the world? Four keys for me…
- No fatal defensive mistakes. You might be able to survive that against Montréal, but against Miami? Hello, blowout.
- Alexey Miranchuk has to play like a $13 million player. You know Messi and friends (and acquaintances … and Homegrown/SuperDraft picks nobody expected to contribute) will show up. Miranchuk needs to produce a few game-changing moments.
- Be efficient in transition. Atlanta never should have let Montréal get to penalties. Saba, Thiaré/RÃos and whoever plays on the other wing have to make the right decisions and execute when Miami give them opportunities to break. Those opportunities will come.
- Start Dax McCarty. If Atlanta couldn't get on the ball and have even a little bit of control of the game against Montréal, what chance do they have against Miami? I’d like to see McCarty start with Ajani Fortune, just to give the team some leadership, personality and bravery on the ball.
Upset Forecast: 15 percent chance
There’s your bulletin board material, Chris Armas.
Too many key injury question marks – per Burgundy Wave, Cole Bassett and Zack Steffen are currently back in full training, while Djordje Mihailovic seems unlikely to be involved in Game 1 – and poor form over the past month (one win, against Toronto, and five losses) means I am skeptical the Rapids can spoil the Galaxy’s season.
That said, the recipe for a Galaxy upset isn’t particularly complicated, though saying is easier than doing.
- Stay compact and organized to limit the space (in midfield for Riqui Puig, in isolation and in behind for Gabriel Pec and Joseph Paintsil) that LA’s Killer Ps thrive in.
- When isolated, slow LA’s momentum and win the 1v1 battles, particularly on the wings (this is why the Rapids signed Reggie Cannon).
- Play direct and go right at the center backs when the Galaxy push numbers forward.
- Set pieces, set pieces, set pieces (a clear LA weakness).
Can the Rapids execute all those things? Yes, absolutely. Will they? Highly unlikely.
Upset Forecast: 55 percent chance
This is the upset I am most confident can and will happen.
Orlando are actually better away from home this year than at Inter&Co Stadium. They tend to struggle, especially at home, against teams that sit back, clog up space in their attacking half and force them to create chances via long possession sequences.
That’s Charlotte in a nutshell, with the presumptive MLS Goalkeeper of the Year Kristijan Kahlina sparing most defensive blushes, and now Dean Smith’s Designated Players are firing, too. The last part is crucial, as is the tweak Smith made, moving Tim Ream to left back to better balance attacking oomph with one of the league's best defenses. Charlotte may have lost 2-0 in Orlando in September, but that was a much different group than the one that rolls into their first-ever non-Wild Card game playoff experience on the back of four wins in five.
This series is basically a toss-up.
Upset Forecast: 30 percent chance
Last year, Steve Cherundolo and Co. smacked Vanni Sartini and Vancouver in Round One, 5-2 and 1-0. Since then, the Canadian side has played LAFC much tighter. They knocked them off in penalties in the group stage of Leagues Cup and lost a nailbiter in second-half stoppage time just a few weeks ago.
Beating LAFC looks something like beating Portland, just with a much higher degree of difficulty.
- Win the set-piece battle. Attacking, sure, but just as importantly defensively. Last year, LAFC scored four set-piece goals in the first leg, a 5-2 win.
- Stay organized behind the ball to prevent Denis Bouanga, Mateusz Bogusz and Cristian Olivera from feasting in transition.
- Don’t be afraid to press in the right spots, find the foot of a Scotsman (Ryan Gauld or Stu Armstrong) and GO.
- Big players – Gauld, Armstrong, Brian White and Fafà Picault – have to be bigger than LAFC’s collection of elite talent.
It could definitely happen! It probably won’t.
Upset Forecast: 40 percent chance
This one is smelling a little fishy, mostly because FC Cincinnati just haven’t looked like themselves for the entire second half of the season.
And still, I have a hard time thinking Pat Noonan’s side doesn’t get the job done against an NYCFC team that showed up in a three-game mirage towards the end of the season, but otherwise hadn’t won in the 10 other games sandwiched around it.
One of Cincinnati’s uncharacteristic Achilles’ heels this year has been bad turnovers followed by struggles defending in space – struggles exacerbated by the backline musical chairs necessitated by injury, suspension and international absences.
NYCFC are best when they’re unafraid to skip a line or two and go straight for goal. Alonso MartÃnez thrives in those conditions, as does Santi RodrÃguez. They’ll need to take advantage when they do get those chances and hope Lucho Acosta and Luca Orellano (now a forward?!?) are both loose on the ball in the buildup and sloppy in the final third.
Upset Forecast: 35 percent chance
This is probably tighter than my forecast implies, but I just cannot get over Houston’s head-to-head record against Seattle. Since the start of 2017, the Sounders have 12 wins (9/9 at home), one draw and two losses against the Dynamo. That’s Halloween House of Horrors stuff.
And yes, you are right, this is a different Houston team, albeit one that needs to keep the margins tight, in many ways similar to the Sounders. I don’t expect this to be a particularly high-scoring series.
The key for Houston? Pay off possession via Ezequiel Ponce and whoever else can chip in on any given day. I know the Dynamo can limit Seattle’s chances, but the lack of firepower may be their undoing.
(On that note, I am still mad about Lawrence Ennali’s season-ending injury and hope he’s recovering well.)
Upset Forecast: 10 percent chance
It’s probably a tad higher – maybe 15-20 percent – but I chose 10 percent simply because 10 is the number Emil Forsberg wears on his back. Forsberg, you might have heard, is the Red Bulls' best player.
The Red Bulls will not have the ball against the Crew. They won’t win the open-play xG battle. That’s OK. They just need to show a different level of quality than their norm when a counterattack or set-piece situation materializes. Forsberg is the guy with that quality.
If the Swede balls out, the likes of Lewis Morgan, Dante Vanzier and Elias Manoel are capable of having big games in his wake. If not, the Crew will likely cruise to the next round.
Upset Forecast: 45 percent chance
The Loons have "upset special" written all over them.
- Settled XI. Eric Ramsay finally got the players he wanted/needed in the summer and dropped them into a tidy 4-2-3-1 that gets the best from the entire group.
- In-form striker. Kelvin Yeboah hit and he hit immediately. Seven goals in nine games and 711 minutes is a dream start, and he’s actually in a bit of a cold spell with no goals in his last three games. What I am saying is that he’s due.
- Best away team in the Western Conference. Only LAFC matched their point output.
- Game-changers off the bench. If Yeboah, Robin Lod, Bongi Hlongwane and JoaquÃn Pereyra don’t get it done, here come Sang-Bin Jeong, Tani Oluwaseyi, Teemu Pukki and Franco Fragapane.
Meanwhile, Diego Luna is hot but Chicho hasn’t scored in what feels like a lifetime and Real Salt Lake may or may not have that playoff dog in them. This one could get hairy quickly for the three seed.
