Consider this your appetizer – a 10,000-foot view of the five Western Conference teams I expect to be busiest during the winter transfer window (which officially closes in, uh, the spring).
The main course – my 30-team guide to transfer window needs & Designated Player/U22 Initiative status for all 30 teams, in the buildup to 2025 – comes out on Thursday.
The below is based on what I’ve heard; what’s been said in end-of-season press availabilities; roster status (i.e., San Jose cut half their team, so it’s pretty clear they’ve got some moves coming); reporting from the likes of Sir Thomas Scoopington; and good, old-fashioned common sense.
West today, Eastern Conference coming tomorrow.
In we go:
In Eduard Atuesta and Ilie Sánchez, LAFC let two guys walk who were written-in-pen midfield starters for the first two-thirds of the season (and there's no guarantee Lewis O'Brien returns). They also bid farewell to Kei Kamara, who gave them valuable No. 9 minutes across multiple competitions.
They’ve re-signed center back Aaron Long, but Jesús Murillo and Marlon are still in the wind.
Could they sell Mateusz Bogusz? Cristian Olivera? David MartÃnez? Will they play with a two-man midfield or a three-man midfield next year?
They’ve mostly carried only two full DPs the past two years, and have repeatedly been a match-winner short in finals. They've also long been linked to Atlético Madrid forward Antoine Griezmann, and I’d bet my life he’ll be in LA next summer at the latest. But it could happen as early as this winter.
FC Dallas brought in a new head coach in Eric Quill, which is obviously a big step. Word is that decision's an indicator of the club’s desire to get back to the good old days of the academy-to-first-team pipeline; Quill, of course, was once upon a time the head coach for North Texas SC, their MLS NEXT Pro side. He knows a thing or two about #PlayYourKids.
They declined options on eight guys, and while none of them were core pieces, it’s still a lot. That's more than they can likely replace just with a new brigade of academy graduates.
The real thing, though, is they’re pretty obviously listening to offers on DP attacker Jesús Ferreira, as well as veteran attacker/midfielder/ad hoc right back Paul Arriola. Both are linked with trades to Seattle. Plus, there are always rumors swirling around DP playmaker Alan Velasco (though his new contract and reporting from Tom, Buzz Carrick, Steve Davis et al suggests he’ll remain in Frisco).
Still, it would not shock me if any/all were moved. The only guys on the roster who look untouchable are Petar Musa, Maarten Paes (unless they get an offer from PSV or someone of that ilk) and Logan Farrington. Everything else has got to be on the table.
Sporting KC are looking at a three-window rebuild to remake the roster. And they made only one key addition last summer, signing veteran Spanish CB JoaquÃn Fernández. So yeah, manager Peter Vermes and new sporting director Mike Burns have some work to do.
The turnover started with some big departures last month, as Tim Melia, Johnny Russell, Rémi Walter and Andreu Fontàs were all out of contract and allowed to walk. Those guys played a combined 11 billion games for this team in the past half-decade (longer, in the case of Melia and Russell). It’s a lot to replace.
It’s also nearly $3 million worth of budget room across those four salaries. That’s a lot. Plus, Sporting KC have an open DP slot they’ve long promised to use on a No. 10.
For what it’s worth, I don’t think it’s realistic to expect them to buy out the final two years of Alan Pulido’s albatross of a deal. But if they do, it’s a real statement of intent for this winter.
Eight contracts declined, on everyone from homegrowns to SuperDraft picks to imports to, in Jeremy Ebobisse's case, their starting No. 9 of the past three years. Another four guys are out of contract (including a pair of starters) and won’t be returning.
When Bruce Arena comes into a new team, he clears out as much as possible. We saw him do it with the Revs (though not this quickly) a half-decade ago, and we saw him do it with the Galaxy a decade before that. Bruce’s first priority is always building the culture, and you don’t do that by keeping a ton of guys around.
The moves have opened up more than $4 million in budget room, most of which is pure salary cap space rather than General Allocation Money (GAM). There are also a few obvious buyout candidates who could get them close to, or even over, $5 million of space.
Part of that has already been filled by acquiring Dave Romney (who’ll probably be a starter), Mark-Anthony Kaye and Ian Harkes from New England for a bit of GAM. Part of that will be filled by signing a DP No. 9, with former Cincy striker Brandon Vazquez reportedly the primary target (that would be a good get IMO). Of course, to get a DP No. 9, they’d need to move DP d-mid Carlos Gruezo, which I think they'll do.
The rest will likely be middle-of-the-roster sorts, though remember 1) San Jose have three U22 Initiative slots open, and 2) Bruce did good work with the kids during his time in Foxborough.
I’d love to see them grab Dylan Borrero and return him to his pre-ACL tear, absolutely electric form.
It’s cheating to put an expansion team at No. 1; they'll obviously be busy as hell over the next few months. And when we were in San Diego last week for the Expansion Draft, sporting director Tyler Heaps joked that he was so busy he wasn’t sleeping (I’m not entirely sure it was a joke).
Anyway:
- Expect them to sign a second big DP. Not as big as Chucky Lozano, but still very big, and most likely a winger.
- Expect them to go hard after a couple of MLS free agents. Given the make-up of their current roster, Ebobisse makes a lot of sense for them.
- I think they’ll invest in multiple U22 slots. Part of their formula is to be a develop-and-sell team, and that’s partially what those slots are for.
- To that end, I’d expect them to go after youth prospects who other teams have signed but haven’t fully progressed into the first team. Think about how Montréal operated in acquiring Caden Clark and Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty last summer.
- They already made a pick (goalkeeper Jacob Jackson) in Stage 1 of the Re-Entry Draft, and I’d be pretty surprised if they didn’t add a couple more pieces in Stage 2 this week.
The one thing I’m not so sure of is trades. Every other exec in MLS knows expansion teams are loaded (relatively speaking) with GAM, so there’s a tendency to ask for 150 cents on the dollar. If trades do happen, I wouldn’t be surprised if they happened much later in the transfer window – maybe even after the season’s started.
Darkhorse to Watch
Evander is famously unhappy with the club, and if Palmeiras are willing to offer Orlando reportedly up to $14 million for Facundo Torres, would, say, Flamengo offer $20 million for Portland’s No. 10? That’s a lot of money.
Mexican press is reporting that Santiago Moreno wants the Timbers to accept a rumored offer from Atlas.
There are reports out of South America that Felipe Mora wants to return to Universidad de Chile.
Uruguayan press says a move to Peñarol for Jonathan RodrÃguez could be in the cards.
I don’t know if all of this, none of this, or some of this will come to pass. But I will say 1) the US press – neither Tom, nor the local Timbers gang – hasn’t made it sound like anything is imminent, and 2) it would be a hell of a thing to break up an attack that scored 65 goals last year.
So I’m leaning more towards a quiet offseason for the Timbers (who have already claimed the rights to Venezuelan striker Kevin Kelsy; he'd be a U22 guy). But if it suddenly goes nuclear, well, we were warned.
