Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle

Seattle Sounders: What we learned in 2024 & what comes next

24-Season-Review-SEA

One more year of being one signing away.

It’s become who the Seattle Sounders are, and while there are about two dozen fanbases that’d trade places with them in a heartbeat – 57 points, semifinal appearances in both the US Open Cup and Audi MLS Cup Playoffs, quarterfinals in Leagues Cup – there is an understandable frustration in the fanbase of being… yeah, one signing away.

Let’s dive in:

1
The missing piece

Here’s what I wrote in last year’s post-mortem:

Seattle played really organized and often very good soccer, which allowed them to become one of the best defensive teams of the past decade by both the boxscore and underlying numbers. That allowed them to survive Father Time catching up to both Nico Lodeiro and Raúl Ruidíaz, and to do so with some style, finishing second in the West and ranking among the league leaders in possession, passes per possession and field tilt.

This was all true again in 2024, and the big change was supposed to be the arrival of DP winger Pedro de la Vega, who was acquired for a reported $7 million last winter in place of the departed Lodeiro. It wasn’t like for like – de la Vega is, as mentioned, a winger – but the hope was he’d be the type of final third creator who’d take all that useful possession the midfield and fullbacks generate and turn it into penetration and chances.

Didn’t happen. De la Vega spent most of the year hurt, then was mostly ineffective when he wasn’t hurt. Seattle badly need the young Argentine to be a Gass Theorem™ guy in 2025 and come good on his lofty expectations.

I still think going after a winger of de la Vega’s ostensible profile was the right choice. They just backed the wrong horse, leaving the match-winning plays to the same group of guys as last year (with predictable results).

2
Forward thinking

By May, it was clear Ruidíaz was turbo-cooked and someone else needed to become the starting No. 9. At which point two things happened:

  • Former academy kid/Tacoma Defiance product Paul Rothrock showed he was more than good enough to be a starting winger on a pretty good team.
  • Jordan Morris reminded us all why, 10 years ago, he was considered a super high-level No. 9 prospect.

Morris, who has spent most of his pro career as a winger, became the starting 9 in Brian Schmetzer’s 4-2-3-1 in mid-June with the Sounders scuffling along below the playoff line at 4W-7L-6D. In their subsequent 28 games across all competitions after moving Morris up top, they went 17W-6L-5D. He put up 14g/5a, including the monumental match-winner at LAFC in the Western Conference Semifinals.

Beyond the numbers, Seattle’s fortunes changed because of the threat Morris presented in behind – he’s still got the pace and power that was so eye-catching a decade back – and his willingness to make hard, direct runs that opened space for the likes of Rothrock, Albert Rusnák and de la Vega.

I'm sure the above will, to a degree, change Seattle’s thinking about this winter’s shopping.

3
Rock solid

Let's list 'em out:

  • Jackson Ragen (I had him second on my Defender of the Year ballot and intend to scream bloody murder if he doesn’t get a long USMNT look) and Yeimar Gómez Andrade were probably the best center-back pairing in the league.
  • João Paulo was still very good, but once he got injured and the winger depth chart sorted itself out, Cristian Roldan took over at d-mid and was even better.
  • Obed Vargas was third on my 22 Under 22 ballot. If he’s still in MLS next year, it wouldn’t shock me if he’s No. 1.
  • Rusnák had his best year in MLS, full stop.
  • The fullbacks were not great – Alex Roldan will have sleepless nights thinking about that loose touch on Saturday against the Galaxy, which effectively ended Seattle’s season in the Western Conference Final – but they were more good than bad.
  • Stefan Frei is still a starter, and Andrew Thomas looked promising as the heir apparent in his 600-ish league minutes.

The Sounders have a championship-caliber defense and midfield, in part because they’ve signed some very good players. But in larger part, it's because they’ve done so well developing guys internally.

Would they be better if Rusnák was, say, Riqui Puig or Lucho Acosta? More threatening off the dribble and better able to break teams down individually? Yes. But at the same time, Rusnák doesn’t take the same kinds of positional/bad turnover risks that those guys do. He enhances the overall solidity of the group, which is a huge reason why Seattle conceded fewer goals than anyone.

And it's why the Sounders needed one more game-changing piece up top.

Five Players to Build Around
  • Cristian Roldan (DM): I’d never been a Roldan d-mid truther, but my god he was so good once he moved there in mid-summer. First name on the team sheet.
  • Obed Vargas (CM): Barring a godfather offer (which could very well come), he’s probably the second name on the team sheet.
  • Jackson Ragen (CB): Third name on the team sheet. Or second. Or first.
  • Yeimar Gómez Andrade (CB): He’s an obvious starter, even as he hits his mid-30s next year.
  • Jordan Morris (LW/FW): If it was me, I’d go into next year with Morris at the 9 and sign another new DP winger. But we’ll see!

All the pressure is on CSO Craig Waibel, who has done great work bringing guys like Rothrock and Georgi Minoungou along from Tacoma in MLS NEXT Pro, and who’s helped set a culture of expectation (and playing time) for guys like Vargas, Reed Baker-Whiting and Josh Atencio that Schmetzer has fully embraced. Four or five years ago, you could’ve knocked the legendary coach for being too reluctant to trust young players. Now he’s starting multiple teenagers in the season’s biggest games, and the kids are cooking.

Anyway, back to Waibel. Here are the four big things on his plate, in order of importance:

  1. With Ruidíaz likely leaving and that DP slot opening up, will Waibel pursue a No. 9 (and thus move Morris back to the wing)? Or will he go after a winger (and keep Morris at the 9)? He has to get this right – like, Joseph Paintsil-level right.
  2. Can he bring back Rusnák, who’s out of contract, on a fair number? Rusnák's 30, but he’s also an ironman. Ideally I’d say max-TAM for multiple years, a la Darlington Nagbe’s Columbus deal.
  3. Obed offers. They’re coming. Atencio is a good replacement should it come to that, and there are other kids in the pipeline. But Obed is a level above them.
  4. Is there a number where it makes sense to bring João Paulo back? I think yes, especially if there’s an Obed sale in the works.

Also, bear this in mind: Seattle have at least one unused U22 Initiative roster slot, though that could change (they’ll have two if, as is expected, Léo Chú gets shown the door; if Vargas gets a salary bump that puts him into a U22 deal – giving him financial security and Seattle better leverage for any potential sale – they’re back down to one; or they could rock with 2 DPs/4 U22s, which becomes plausible if Rusnák signs on that max-TAM number I mentioned above).

However it shakes out, they’ve got to add a U22 No. 9, a la what the Galaxy did with Dejan Joveljić a few years back.

But that first item matters most and dwarfs the rest: the Sounders are one piece away, and they'll have a DP slot open. If they get it right, they probably add to their trophy case next season.

Those are the stakes.