Robbie Keane or Obafemi Martins?
That's the question facing Volkswagen MLS MVP voters heading into the final two weekends of the season. As luck would have it, the two frontrunners will duke it out head-to-head to finish the regular season as the Seattle Sounders and the LA Galaxy decide the Supporters’ Shield race (Sunday, 8 pm ET, ESPN2).
In this week's MLSsoccer.com MVP Ladder Keane held a sizable lead over Martins, but do the statistics agree with that advantage?
Going by the basics, it seems clear Keane has had a more productive season than Martins. The Irishmen has 33 combined goals and assists (19 G, 14 A) to Martins’ 27 (17 G, 10 A). Keane has directly contributed to 49.3 percent of the Galaxy’s goals, while Martins is just behind with a 44.3 percent clip.
- LA vs. Seattle Showdown: Which pair of star strikers has the advantage?
Of course, raw production isn't always the most-telling barometer. Sometimes value shines through in other, less-noticeable ways. Sometimes the most valuable player isn't necessarily the league's most outstanding player.
With that in mind, a more-nuanced look at the numbers can help tell the tale of the 2015 MVP race.
Both Keane and Martins like to drop deep to pick up the ball in order to become a playmaker for their respective clubs. The result is that each has created around 50 chances from open play this season. Only one of the two is the top chance creators on their respective team.
That'd be Martins.
Landon Donovan has been the main chance creator for the Galaxy this season, not to mention tops in MLS. Using the same principle described here, we can see that Martins has actually created a larger percentage of his team’s chances, and by a fairly significant margin.
Percentage of Team Chances Created from Open Play
And while Keane has taken 49 more shots than Martins, there's no doubt which striker has been more efficient with his scoring chances.
Shooting Accuracy and Shot Conversion Rates
But what about the effect on both squads when Martins or Keane aren't in the lineup?
Both have missed a few games this season between injuries and international duty or been held out of the starting lineup to save their legs, but Seattle and LA’s performances in those matches have been vastly different.
The Sounders have been average without Martins in the starting XI, winning two games and losing the other three. LA, meanwhile, were undefeated in the four games (3-0-1) Keane did not start until Sunday night when they lost 3-1 to FC Dallas.
As you may have guessed already, that cursory look doesn't tell the whole story. The chart below shows each team's goal production per 90 minutes with and without the two star strikers.
Sounders and Galaxy with and without star strikers
Obviously, the without columns are limited by sample size, with each player only missing around 500 minutes so far in 2014. Don't assume LA are a better attacking team without Keane either, especially with that Robbie-less production coming against Chivas USA and Colorado.
What it does show, however, is that LA’s attack hasn't suffered significantly in the absence of Keane, while Seattle has clearly struggled to replicate their normally explosive offense without Martins.
So while there's little doubt that the duo are the most outstanding players in MLS this season, with Lee Nguyen charging hard and Keane perhaps slightly ahead of his Sounders counterpart, it may very well be that Martins provides the most value.
Let us know what you think in the comment section below. Does Martins' affect on the Seattle attack give him the edge over Keane? Or is this the Irishman's award to lose?
