It’s a New York City showdown in the Leagues Cup as NYCFC travels to face New York Red Bulls at Red Bull Arena.
In the group stage, the Red Bulls finished atop East Group 4 over the New England Revolution and Atlético San Luis. NYCFC, meanwhile, placed second in East Group 3, behind Atlas but ahead of Toronto FC.
Now, the two sides showdown for a spot in the North American tournament. This is Nick Hennion from The Game Day with your preview and best bet for the Red Bulls and NYFC.
New York Red Bulls vs NYCFC Odds
New York Red Bulls vs NYCFC betting lines are current as of Tuesday, Aug. 1, at Caesars Sportsbook.
- Three-Way Moneyline: New York Red Bulls (+120) • Draw (+220) • NYCFC (+240)
- Total Goals: Over 2.5 (+125) • Under 2.5 (-160)
- Both Teams To Score: Yes (-110) • No (-120)
New York Red Bulls vs NYCFC Match Prediction
New York Red Bulls 1-0 NYCFC
History suggests these sides are in for a tight fixture that proves low-event in nature.
Oddsmakers are already telling you they expect little action, given Under 2.5 goals has a 62 percent implied probability. Supporting that game script is the fact both teams arrive with strong defenses.
At home this season, the Red Bulls have proved virtually impenetrable. Through 12 MLS fixtures at Red Bull Arena, they’ve surrendered only 9.4 expected goals, the best mark in the Eastern Conference.
In a May 13 meeting with NYCFC at this venue, manager Troy Lesesne’s side limited NYCFC to a mere 0.26 expected goals and zero big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.
Yet, that same fixture saw the Red Bulls generate a mere 0.31 expected goals. Plus, they’re taking on a side that’s surrendered the fourth-fewest expected goals away from home in the Eastern Conference.
From a side standpoint, our lean is to the Red Bulls. Entering this game a sizable positive regression candidate (-4 goal differential vs. a +8.8 xGDiff), they should claim victory against a side with a -0.19 xGDiff per 90 minutes away from home.
Red Bulls vs NYCFC Best Bet
Both Teams to Score - “No” (-120) • Caesars Sportsbook
Not only did both teams fail to generate one expected goal in the last head-to-head meeting, but this prop has proved quite profitable historically.
Not since the Sept. 2021 head-to-head meeting have both teams found the back of the net in the same match.
Plus, of their 12 MLS home games this season, New York Red Bulls have limited all but two teams to less than one non-penalty expected goal. Given one of those matches came as a result of a Red Bulls red card, we’ll back this market up to -130.
