As part of the Leagues Cup semifinal round, Nashville SC welcomes Liga MX side Monterrey to Nashville.
Tuesday’s hosts enter the fixture fresh off a resounding victory. At home against fellow MLS side Minnesota United,
Nashville created six big scoring chances on their way to a 5-0 victory. In the previous round, Nashville overtook Club America on penalties.
As for Monterrey, they’ve put together two solid performances over the last two rounds. In the round of 16, they took out fellow tournament contenders Tigres before knocking off LAFC in the quarterfinals.
This is Nick Hennion from The Game Day with your preview and best bet for Nashville SC versus Monterrey.
Nashville SC vs Monterrey Odds
Nashville SC versus Monterrey betting lines are current as of Sunday, Aug. 13, at BetMGM Sportsbook.
- 3-Way Handicap: Nashville SC (+175) • Draw (+240) • Monterrey (+135)
- Total Goals: Over 2.5 (-135) • Under 2.5 (-110)
- Both Teams To Score: Yes (-155) • No (+110)
Nashville SC vs Monterrey Match Prediction
Nashville SC 0-1 Monterrey
Time to fade both teams' offenses in what should prove a tightly-contested fixture.
Although Nashville slipped five goals past Minnesota, it really shouldn’t come as a surprise. Entering the Leagues Cup, Minnesota ranked 16th in non-penalty expected goals against per 90 minutes.
Nashville also sits third league-wide and first in the Eastern Conference in expected goals per 90 minutes at home.
Conversely, Monterrey put three goals past LAFC, but it wasn’t all their doing. One came via a penalty kick, while another entered as an own goal. All told, Monterrey generated only one big scoring chance in the quarterfinals.
Expand the sample to include their round of 16 clash with Tigres - where they only created one big chance - and a dip in offense could be on the horizon.
Strengthening that belief is the fact Nashville ranks third in MLS in non-penalty expected goals against per 90 minutes.
Yet, Nashville’s encountering a side that led Liga MX in expected goals against last season and limited their previous two opponents to one big scoring chance.
Based on those defensive records, we expect a narrow victory for Monterrey. A defensive showcase benefits them, and they just took down an LAFC side with a better xGDiff than Nashville.
Nashville SC vs Monterrey Best Bet
Total Under 2.5 Goals (-110) • BetMGM Sportsbook
There’s a bit of betting calculus behind this play - allow me to explain.
Over 2.5 goals is the favorite for the match, which means the expectation is that one team will reach two goals (given both teams to score - “yes” is favored).
However, if you dive deeper into the team total markets, that’s not the case. As of this writing, Monterrey under 1.5 goals is priced at -160, while Nashville under 1.5 goals is priced at -200.
Those prices strike me as a bit odd. Combine that pricing structure with the aforementioned chance to sell both offenses, and we’ll take under 2.5 goals at -115 or better.
