Expected goals are not the be-all and end-all when it comes to evaluating a teams performance, but through seven weeks of the MLS season, the stat can help us gain some insight into what's happened so far.
The amount of expected goals a team has is the number of goals a team would be expected to score on average based on their quality of chances. A discrepancy between the amount of expected goals and goals could come down to luck, quality of finishing or a number of other factors.
There are three MLS teams who enter Week 8 having scored at least three fewer goals fewer than would be expected. Two of those are the past two seasons' MLS Cup finalists in Toronto FC and the Seattle Sounders, suggesting that both clubs' talent in league play hasn't just disappeared from last season.
The other club? The Philadelphia Union.
Team |
xG |
G |
+/- |
|---|---|---|---|
Philadelphia Union |
8.61 |
3 |
-5.61 |
Toronto FC |
7.65 |
3 |
-4.65 |
Seattle Sounders |
5.30 |
2 |
-3.30 |
Philadelphia has scored just three times this season, yet their performances indicate they should have found the net more than eight times through their five matches. That's the largest deficit of any MLS club through this stage of the season, nearly a full goal worse than Toronto, who has been rested many of its regulars in the league at times to manage CCL commitments.
The question is whether it's indicative of poor luck or something faulty in the way the Union have gone about finishing their chances and learning eachother's personal preferences.
CJ Sapong has been the biggest culprit when it comes to chances missed, as his expected goals value sits at 3.27 and he has scored just one goal. This comes after a 2017 when he scored 16 goals, outperforming his expected goals figure of 14.41.
While Seattle and Toronto have track records over the past two MLS seasons of success, and reason to be confident their form should improve, Philadelphia does not. Will their luck and/or finishing progress to the mean? That is the question Union fans have to wonder as their team chases their third playoff appearance in club history.
