During Matchday 37, we will learn more about Lionel Messi’s health and his expected playing minutes as we approach the end of the season. Inter Miami’s unlikely playoff chase may wind down as well.
This weekend will feature some key games, however, with teams competing for spots and home-field advantage deep into the Audi MLS Playoffs.
Columbus visiting Atlanta, Vancouver in Seattle, San Jose in Dallas, and Charlotte visiting Chicago are a few games that will have a significant impact on the playoff standings.
Neil FitzGerald here from The Game Day to look at the upcoming MLS matches for Matchday 37, taking place on Saturday, Oct. 7.
The MLS odds I used for my betting picks are current as of 11 am ET on Thursday, Oct. 5, at the indicated sportsbook for the wager.
Atlanta United vs. Columbus Crew Preview
Despite a valiant comeback effort against Philadelphia midweek, Atlanta came up short and lost 3-2 on the road. Atlanta are now second in MLS in scoring (63 goals), and they’ve now lost twice in their last eight. Their home record (10-3-3) is strong, but playing a strong Columbus squad makes betting for an outright win a bit risky
Thanks to an 86th-minute goal, Columbus delivered New England their first home loss on the season during their midweek clash.
The Crew owned 53% possession versus the Revs and delivered more shots on target (5-3), enabling them to leapfrog their conference rival. Their offense is the best in the league, so expect lots of goals in this match.
ATLANTA UNITED vs. COLUMBUS CREW PICK: Total Goals over 3.5 (+126) • FanDuel Sportsbook. Two of the League’s two most prolific offenses going head to head will lead to fireworks.
D.C. United vs. New York City FC Preview
D.C. United lost in Austin midweek and have now only won once in their last 10 matches. They sit outside the playoff spots and will need to quickly rediscover their winning ways to move back up the standings.
D.C. will be interesting to watch this weekend, but not a team to wager on.
NYCFC sit immediately outside the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference and have a chance to leapfrog the rival teams above them with a win this weekend.
The team battled well in a 1-1 tie with Inter Miami, but will likely need to find more than one goal to win on the road in DC this weekend.
Inter Miami CF vs. FC Cincinnati Preview
Miami lost a disappointing midweek match to Chicago despite once again owning over 60% of ball possession. Their slim playoff hopes are slipping away, and while Cincinnati have already clinched the Supporters' Shield, they will surely be up to put on a show under the spotlights this weekend.
Following two road ties and a pair of three-goal wins, Cincinnati came up short on Wednesday night, losing 2-1 to the Red Bulls.
They did own almost 70% possession, so the result may be slightly misleading, and the team will be up for this game – against both Miami and potentially Messi.
- INTER MIAMI CF vs. FC Cincinnati PICK: FC Cincinnati to Win (+240) • PointsBet Sportsbook. Playing against Lionel Messi or not, Cincinnati will want to prove they are the class of MLS in this game under the international spotlight.
CF Montréal vs. Portland Timbers Preview
CF Montréal salvaged a tie versus Houston with a 96th-minute goal deep into injury time. The team’s xGD (-10.3) is still the worst for a playoff team in the Eastern Conference, and their recent struggles suggest this is a team to avoid this weekend.
The Timbers are on a tear and have not lost in their last seven games. Their recent results include five wins, and they have scored at least two goals in each of those matches.
Their early-season woes are far behind them, but they still need to find a way to win on the road, as their 2-7-7 record attests, so wagering may be too risky.
New York Red Bulls vs. Toronto FC Preview
The Red Bulls continued their strong run of play with an exceptional 2-1 result on the road against top-dog Cincinnati.
The Red Bulls expected goal differential (xGD) of nearly +10 is still third-best in the East, and they should be able to improve on that this weekend versus a struggling TFC.
The Reds fell on the road to Charlotte in a midweek match that saw them outshot 17-6 and own less than 40% of ball possession.
Toronto have cemented their place as the worst team of the season with a 13th loss in their last 14 games and eagerly await an offseason of restoration and revitalization under new manager John Herdman, who has just taken over the squad
Orlando City vs. New England Revolution Preview
After a defensive 1-0 win over Nashville during the week, Orlando have now only lost three times in their last 23 games, and they are setting in at the top of the Eastern Conference behind Cincinnati.
This is an exciting team worth watching when the odds are right, and their home record is solid (8-3-5).
Despite 14 shots, including five on target versus Columbus, New England came away with a 2-1 loss in their last game – their first loss at home all season.
The large gap between actual (+13) and expected (-1) goal differential remains an ongoing concern, and the Revs' road record (3-6-6) is weak, so they’re a tough squad to back this week.
Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC Preview
After a fifth consecutive draw last weekend (1-1 vs. Columbus), the Union broke out with a critical 3-2 win over Atlanta this week. The win solidified the team’s position into the top half of the playoff draw, but they need to continue to collect points to maintain that spot.
Philadelphia have only lost once at home all year, so they could be a strong bet.
Nashville lost a defensive 1-0 battle to Orlando this week in a game that only saw one shot land on target all night.
Before that unfortunate loss, the team was unbeaten in five matches and had been building momentum heading into the playoffs. It’s premature to bet on a return to their Leagues Cup form just yet, but they are worth monitoring.
Austin FC vs. LAFC Preview
Austin followed a terribly disappointing 1-0 loss at Colorado last weekend with an equally surprising three-goal performance and a 3-0 victory over D.C. United.
They will attempt to continue their good fortune this weekend, but they are a risky wagering option with their inconsistent performance and strong opposition.
After last weekend’s 1-0 loss to Salt Lake, LAFC had only won a single match in their last seven and was spiraling at the worst time of the year. Behind Dénis Bouanga’s hat trick, they bounced back this week with 29 shots and five goals in a 5-1 win.
The team's xGD (+13.5) is still third-best in the MLS, but they will now need to win out their remaining matches to finish in a strong playoff position.
Chicago Fire FC vs. Charlotte FC Preview
Following a surprising 1-0 win on the road in New York on the weekend, Chicago beat up on Miami 4-1 midweek and have now won two in a row.
The Fire have only lost once in their last five matches and have remarkably found themselves back in a playoff spot after this positive run of results.
Charlotte won a much-needed three points at home and delivered a comprehensive 3-0 performance over Toronto FC this week.
They remain a few points out of a playoff spot, but playing a team just ahead of them in the playoff race should be motivation enough to make this an exciting match. Their road record of 3-8-4, however, does not inspire much betting confidence.
FC Dallas vs. San Jose Earthquakes Preview
Dallas have come out of the break and received points in eight of their first nine games back, including six ties and two wins.
They have moved into the playoff picture and threaten to continue moving up if they can continue to complement their strong defense (34 goals allowed) with some offensive results.
The Earthquakes find themselves in a playoff battle, with the outcome of this game potentially playing a decisive role.
The team has tied four of their last six games, so they are playing competitively but will need to overcome their poor road performance (2-8-6) and play that has led to an unimpressive xGD of -7-8 to claim their spot.
Houston Dynamo FC vs. Colorado Rapids Preview
The Dynamo have been playing high-level soccer and have outscored their opponents 17-5 over their last nine games. They were almost triumphant on the road in Montreal this week, but a 96th-minute heart-breaking goal took away the win.
Houston plays well at home and should be able to secure three points here.
The Rapids found the back of the net for the fifth consecutive match and, thanks to a bend-not-break defense, came away with a 1-0 win over Austin on the weekend.
Expect Colorado to continue to compete and attempt to score a goal in their sixth successive match for the first time this season… but this is not wagering territory.
- HOUSTON DYNAMO FC vs. COLORADO RAPIDS PICK: Total Goals Under 2.5 (+130) • FanDuel Sportsbook. Houston’s tight playing style should dominate this game, and Colorado are not likely going to overcome their defense.
Minnesota United FC vs. LA Galaxy Preview
Following a seven-game unbeaten streak, Minnesota have not won in seven matches, so it’s difficult to get behind the team right now.
Despite a 5-1 beating in Los Angeles this week, Minnesota’s expected goal differential (+7) over the season is very high and shows that the team is competitive. Their weak home record (3-4-9) suggests this is not a team to back this week.
After a late injury-time goal by Seattle, the Galaxy lost a tough 2-1 battle with the Sounders this week. Before this game, the team was building momentum toward a playoff spot, but this result has effectively crushed their playoff chances.
Minnesota are in a similar position, and only three points ahead, so this match will be competitive but not wagering territory.
Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting Kansas City Preview
Following an impressive 1-0 win on the road versus Western rival LAFC last Sunday, Salt Lake have moved into the top half of the conference playoff seeds.
Despite losing four of their last seven matches, the squad has competed hard and won two contests in a row.
Sporting Kansas City’s road record (2-8-6) does not inspire confidence for this match, and their inconsistent play makes betting on a result a risky pick.
The team has been alternating between losses and wins for the last six weeks, so if you’re superstitious, they are due based on their last 4-1 loss, but a wager is not recommended.
Seattle Sounders FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC Preview
Following a dramatic last-minute 2-1 win over the LA Galaxy, the Sounders are now undefeated in seven games (including five games on the road).
The Sounders xGD (+14.6) continues to be one of the best in MLS and playing at home again will make them a stiff competitor.
Despite fatigued legs from a long road trip, the Whitecaps avenged an earlier 3-1 loss to St. Louis by soundly beating them 3-0 at home this week.
The Whitecaps' xGD of almost +12 is third in the West, and their recent reinforcements, including three players from the Canadian national team, are impressive, so this is a sneaky good team to keep an eye on.
