MLS Leagues Cup South Group Picks: Can Messi elevate Inter Miami out of the gate?

Headlined by Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami CF, the Leagues Cup south region is arguably the most wide-open section. 

All four quadrants feature MLS sides as favorites to win the group. However, of the 12 teams constructing this section, only two sides - Inter Miami and Cruz Azul - find themselves with odds shorter than 30/1 to win the entire competition. 

How should bettors approach each division? This is Nick Hennion from The Game Day with your Leagues Cup south region futures bets. 

MLS Leagues Cup South Group Odds

Lines for Leagues Cup group play between MLS and Liga MX were found at bet365 Sportsbook and are current as of Wednesday, July 12, at noon ET.

Leagues Cup South 1 Lines

• Austin FC (+115)
• FC Juárez (+125)
• Mazatlán FC (+450)

Put simply; this is a tough group to evaluate. 

Despite finishing second in the Western Conference last year, Austin owned the eighth-best expected goal differential, per fbref.com. This year, they have the 10th-best xGD in the conference. 

Juarez and Mazatlan are no gems, either. In Liga MX last year, both finished with a bottom-five expected goal differential. 

Leagues Cup South 2 Lines

• Orlando City SC (+137)
• Santos Laguna (+162)
• Houston Dynamo (+240)

Orlando may currently rank fifth in the East, but they’re a negative regression candidate based on their first 23 matches. 

The Dynamo are justified longshots in the group as they own a -0.28 expected goal differential per 90 minutes over the last two seasons. 

Santos Laguna represents an intriguing option amongst this trio. Based on their first three fixtures this season, they're a positive regression candidate and finished with the seventh-best xGD last year. 

Leagues Cup South 3 Lines

• Inter Miami CF (+150)
• Cruz Azul (+175)
• Atlanta United (+200)

What a tough draw for Atlanta, who posted the sixth-best xGD in the East last year and have maintained that pace in 2023. 

Inter Miami sit 15th in the East and own the worst expected goal differential amongst all MLS sides, but just added Messi and Barcelona midfielder Sergio Busquets. 

Finally, the respect for Cruz Azul is a bit perplexing. They finished with a bottom-half xGD last season and have stumbled out of the gates this season. 

Leagues Cup South 4 Lines

• FC Dallas (+110)
• Necaxa (+170)
• Charlotte FC (+300)

Much like South 1, this is a tough group to judge. 

FC Dallas owns a negative expected goal differential both last season and this season. Charlotte, meanwhile, fell off a cliff and owns the second-worst xGD in MLS, again, per fbref.com. 

That said, Necaxa isn’t a high-quality Liga MX side. They finished with the third-worst expected goal differential last season and are winless to start the current campaign. 

Leagues Cup South Group 1 Pick

FC Juárez (+125)

This trio is essentially a two-horse race, as Mazatlan has consistently shown a lack of quality. 

However, the deciding factor is Juarez’s offensive prowess. Albeit in a small sample, Juarez is generating 1.54 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes this season. 

Additionally, they’ve earned results against two top-tier Liga MX sides in Club America and UANL this season. 

Even if those results proved slightly undeserved based on xG, I’d trust them in a weak group. 

Leagues Cup South Group 2 Pick

Santos Laguna (+162) 

As mentioned earlier, Santos represents a solid mid-tier option. 

Frankly, Orlando is a fraudulent side with no business entering the tournament as a group favorite. Since the beginning of the 2022 season, Orlando owns a -3 goal differential vs. a -7.3 expected goal differential. 

Given MLS is a weaker league than Liga MX, take Santos to win this group against two bad teams. 

Leagues Cup South Group 3 Pick

Atlanta United (+200)

Perhaps it’s foolish to step before Messi’s Miami, but it’s tough to wrap your head around this team. 

Despite their quality additions, they remain the worst in MLS in expected goal differential. Cruz Azul is also fraudulent, with a lousy offense to boot - they’ve yet to surpass one expected goal in three matches this season. 

Atlanta might not represent a sexy option, but they’re ninth in MLS in non-penalty expected goals per 90, according to fbref.com. 

Given their steady play, take Atlanta as an overpriced longshot. 

Leagues Cup South Group 4 Pick

FC Dallas (+110) 

It’s so tough to place trust in FC Dallas, but they have one redeeming quality informing this selection. 

Striker Jesus Ferreira returns from a successful Gold Cup campaign with the USMNT and has produced in spades for Dallas. This season, he has 10 goals off 6.6 expected a season after scoring 18 off 11.6 expected. 

In a competition that rewards strong offensive play, that may prove the difference in this group. 

Ultimately, the group probably decides who beats Charlotte by more goals. I’ll trust Dallas to do so. 

Leagues Cup South Group Winner Pick

Santos Laguna

Until bettors learn more about Inter Miami, Santos is the best team of these 12 sides. 

Again, this side finished with the seventh-best expected goal differential in a more difficult domestic league.

Further, they finished the 2022-23 Liga MX campaign with the fourth-best non-penalty xG per 90 minutes mark. 

Assuming Santos can maneuver their way out of a weak group, their offense should prove too much in subsequent rounds.