It’s easy to imagine a host of other MLS teams finding success with Lionel Messi on the field. If he were to suit up for, say, the Houston Dynamo, I’d wager that Ben Olsen and friends would be on top of the Western Conference. Messi, as you would expect from the greatest of all time, tends to have that sort of transformational impact on teams.
At the same time, it’s also easy to imagine a host of other MLS teams stalling out around the final turn of the season if they had a player of Messi’s caliber… but had to play every other game without him. That’s been Inter Miami’s situation in 2024 – Messi has played less than half of their regular season matches this year. And yet? The Supporters’ Shield looks like it’s about to find a home in South Beach.
How have Miami not just survived, but largely thrived, without their Argentine attacker? Well, you don’t have to look much further than his former FC Barcelona teammate Luis Suárez to find a top-line answer to that question. Among the league leaders in goals (and first in Tata Martino’s squad in that same category), Suárez has picked up much of the offensive slack when Messi has missed time with Argentina or due to injury.
Because we’re nearing awards season, it’s time for me to ask the inevitable: which player has been more important to Inter Miami’s success in 2024? Should Suárez or Messi be considered this team’s MVP? Today, I’m making the case for each legend.
The case for… Luis Suárez
Suárez’s counting stats are downright phenomenal this season. He leads Inter Miami in goals with 17 (tied for third in MLS) and is fourth on the team in assists with six. Zooming out to look at MLS as a whole, Suárez is tied for ninth in the league in total goal contributions. He rises to sixth in the rankings if you remove penalty kicks from the equation.
Luis Suárez is good at soccer, thanks for the amazing insight, Joe. Calm down, calm down, we’re just getting to the good stuff.
When you’re pushing for a Supporters’ Shield, availability is one of the best qualities. And while Suárez hasn’t played every game for Inter Miami this season – he was off with Uruguay during the summer’s Copa América, as an example – he’s played over 300 more minutes than Messi during this campaign.
Far more important than simply playing more minutes, Suárez has put his extra minutes to good use. Of his 17 goals in 2024, seven of them were scored in games where Messi didn’t feature for Miami.
The veteran striker hasn’t been dependent on having the “little master,” as Charlotte FC head coach Dean Smith called Messi last weekend, next to him. No, he’s managed 41% of his total regular season goals in Messi’s absence. That’s a credit to Inter Miami’s depth, given the number of capable chance creators at Martino’s disposal who can feed Suárez in key areas. But it’s also a credit to Suárez’s own ability to generate solo offense.
According to FBref, Suárez ranks in the 94th percentile among strikers in MLS in expected assisted goals per 90 minutes. He’s a chance creation machine, who strings progressive passes together at a rate that lands him in the 82nd percentile among strikers.
Suárez has produced, he’s been available, he’s succeeded without Messi, and he’s been astonishingly efficient in 2024. According to American Soccer Analysis, Suárez takes 4.8% of his team’s touches. That puts him 13th among strikers with at least 1,000 minutes in MLS this year, behind other stars like Chicho Arango, Christian Benteke, and Cucho Hernández.
Suárez is doing more with less – without him, Miami might be one trophy lighter this season.
The case for… Lionel Messi
To have watched Messi play for Inter Miami in 2024 is to have watched the most efficient attacking player in MLS history.
Sure, the naked eye can draw something close to that conclusion simply by watching the ball fizz around in Miami's final third, with the initial and final touch seeming to come from Messi’s otherworldly left foot more often than not. But I went back and combed through the data archives to confirm that, yes, Messi is one of one when it comes to his single-season production.
With his 15 goals and 11 primary assists this year, Messi is averaging a staggering 1.76 goal contributions (goals plus primary assists) per 90 minutes, based on data from FBref. Since the league’s first campaign way back in 1996, no player with at least 1,000 minutes in any single season has come even remotely close to that figure. Between Messi this season and Roy Lassiter, who led players at that minutes threshold in goal contributions in MLS’s first season with 1.08 per 90, Carlos Vela’s 2019 season is the one nearest to Messi. Vela averaged 1.45 goal contributions per 90 for LAFC that season.
Bob Bradley famously challenged Vela to be “as good as Messi” when the two were both in Los Angeles. Well, close but not quite.
Messi, when it comes to dominating every single minute when he’s on the field, is simply in his own stratosphere – not just in 2024, but in the 29 seasons of MLS’s existence.
On sheer efficiency alone, Messi is clearly Miami’s team MVP. There’s no doubt, however, that the fact that he’s played a relatively small share of Miami’s total regular season minutes hurts his case. Messi has needed others to cover for him this year. Still, the Argentine has played less than 400 fewer minutes than Suárez. The minutes totals for the two probably aren’t wildly different enough for Suárez to be considered Inter Miami’s MVP. When you compare Messi’s minutes played to some of this year’s other top league-wide MVP contenders, you might get a different story. But in the context of Miami? These two are in the same boat.
Now, I do want to note in this value-added discussion that Suárez may not have signed in Miami over the offseason without Messi’s presence. From a certain angle, Suárez’s success reflects even more positively on Messi’s team MVP case.
At the end of the day, though, the argument for Messi comes down to this:
- The best player ever has looked like the best player ever while wearing pink this season
- The only other contender for Miami’s team MVP title hasn’t played sustainably more minutes to the point where the added availability compensates for the difference in efficiency
Suárez is in the midst of a great season. But the title of Inter Miami MVP belongs to Messi.
