North America’s top continental competition, the Leagues Cup, officially kicks off from the United States on Friday, July 21.Â
Modeled after the UEFA Champions League, the tournament incorporates teams from both Major League Soccer (MLS) and Liga MX, Mexico’s domestic league. Since its debut in 2019, only Liga MX sides have lifted the trophy, with the Mexican top flight combining for three of four final spots (the tournament skipped in 2020).Â
But as the MLS’ relative strength rises, so do the chances of a tournament victory.Â
This is Nick Hennion from The Game Day with your Leagues Cup futures selections.Â
Leagues Cup Winner Odds | MLS vs Liga MXÂ
Lines for Leagues Cup group play between MLS and Liga MX were found at bet365 Sportsbook are current as of Sunday, July 15, at 5 p.m. ET.
- Club América (+900)
- Los Angeles FC (+1100)
- Tigres UANL (+1200)
- Monterrey (+1200)
- Inter Miami CF (+1200)
- Philadelphia Union (+1400)
- Pachuca (+1400)
- Seattle Sounders FC (+1600)
- Leon (+1600)
- FC Cincinnati (+1600)
- Chivas Guadalajara (+1600)
- Cruz Azul (+2000)
- Nashville SC (+2200)
- Toluca (+2500)
- Santos Laguna (+2500)
- Necaxa (+2500)
- NYCFC (+2500)
- New England Revolution (+2500)
- Atlanta United (+3300)
- Atlas (+3300)
- Unam Pumas (+3300)
- St. Louis City SC (+4000)
- Puebla (+4000)
- Juarez FC (+4000)
- FC Dallas (+4000)
- Tijuana (+4000)
- Queretaro (+4000)
- CF Montreal (+4000)
- Columbus Crew (+5000)
- Vancouver Whitecaps (+5000)
- Austin FC (+5000)
- Orlando City SC (+5000)
- Houston Dynamo (+5000)
- Toronto FC (+5000)
- New York Red Bulls (+5000)
- Portland Timbers (+6600)
- Real Salt Lake (+6600)
- LA Galaxy (+6600)
- Charlotte FC (+6600)
- San Jose Earthquakes (+8000)
- Minnesota United (+8000)
- Sporting Kansas City (+8000)
- Atletico San Luis (+8000)
- Chicago Fire (+10000)
- DC United (+10000)
- Colorado Rapids (+10000)
- Mazatlan FC (+12500)
Leagues Cup Winner Prediction
Tigres UNAL (+1200)
Until such a time comes when an MLS side proves it can win this competition, bettors should opt for a Liga MX side.Â
Despite finishing sixth in Liga MX last season, Tigres finished with the fourth-best expected goal differential, per fbref.com. They’ve also started the 2023-24 Liga MX campaign strong, posting the best-expected goal differential through three fixtures.Â
Simultaneously worth noting is the fact Tigres have excelled in this competition. During the 2019 tournament, they reached the final before falling to Cruz Azul. In 2021, they advanced to the quarterfinals.Â
Given that tournament pedigree, Tigres represents a reliable top-tier bet at +1000 or better.Â
Leagues Cup Best Bet To Win
Seattle Sounders (+1600)
Seattle’s sleeper status is derived from higher win equity than these odds suggest.Â
The odds imply a 5.8 percent win probability, which feels too low for a club that reached the finals in 2019 and semis in 2021. Additionally, Seattle’s an underlying metrics darling as they’ve posted the best-expected goal differential in MLS as of this writing.Â
Even scarier is that they’re a positive regression candidate (+6 goal differential against a +12.6 expected goal differential). Seattle also leads the league in non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes, again per fbref.com.Â
In a tournament that rewards strong offensive play, back Seattle to reach the pinnacle at 15/1 or better.Â
Leagues Cup Sleeper Pick to Win
Minnesota United (+8000)
Primarily a play against their group mates, Minnesota’s upside stems from their underlying performances.Â
Despite sitting 10th in the Western Conference as of this writing, Minnesota owns the third-best expected goal differential (+5.5). They’re also a substantial positive regression candidate with a -4 actual goal differential.Â
That represents rapid improvement from last season when they finished with a -3 expected goal differential.Â
Given their group includes the Fire (12th in Eastern Conference in xGD) and Liga MX side Puebla (13th in xGD for the 2022-23 season, 16th in 2023-24), Minnesota has a chance to advance. From there, they offer tremendous upside at 80/1.
