Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle

LAFC: What we learned in 2024 & what comes next

24-Season-Review-LAFC

By definition, any year in which you claim a trophy is a success. Claim a trophy while developing a young (or youngish) player or two into something approaching elite? You’ve now checked two major boxes. Add a big-name signing who was one of the top attackers in Serie A last year? Top your conference and earn home-field advantage at least until MLS Cup – should you make it? You’ve done a lot of stuff right.

And yet I don’t think LAFC’s front office, ownership, coaching staff or players will feel all that great about 2024.

In we go:

1
About that trophy

Let’s start with the best part: LAFC made it to two finals in 2024, and unlike in 2023 – when they made it to three finals and lost all of them – they actually won one! The new addition to what has become a very admirable trophy cabinet for such a new club was this year’s US Open Cup, which they claimed in September after a hard-fought, 3-1 extra-time win over Sporting Kansas City (which itself came after a hard-fought 1-0 win at the Seattle Sounders in the semifinals).

Olivier Giroud, that aforementioned big-name signing, got a goal in that one, because the Frenchman is a big-game player. Mateusz Bogusz, the aforementioned youngish talent who turned into a borderline superstar this year, picked up the assist. Two other youngsters, Omar Campos and Kike Olivera, combined for the eventual match-winner. Superstar Denis Bouanga assisted the ageless Kei Kamara on the capper, and you could not have asked for better vibes than what the Black & Gold were living in that moment.

Especially – especially especially!! – because it came after the Columbus Crew had taken their lunch money in the Leagues Cup final. Again.

That had made it four straight finals and taken four straight Ls. Anything but a win against Sporting KC would’ve been a disaster.

It took them 120 minutes instead of 90, but they landed the plane and hoisted that silverware. Job well done.

2
The game model question

Both the front office and head coach Steve Cherundolo intimated, after getting handled in last year’s MLS Cup, that the team had maybe skewed too hard in the direction of “absorb-and-counter,” which was a limiting factor in those finals. And that this year would be different, as the team would strike a bit more of a balance.

For the first half of the season, they were as good as their word. Nobody would mistake this year’s LAFC for the 2019 version or for the Crew. But they came out in 2024 primarily playing out of a possession(ish)-based 4-3-3, riding that to/towards the top of the West standings. They used the ball a lot and were really, really excellent with it.

Then, on July 13, they hosted Columbus. And they lost 5-1. And out went the baby with the bathwater.

Within a week, the 4-3-3 was (mostly) gone in favor of a 5-2-3 that emptied central midfield and conceded a ton of the ball. LAFC went from the top third of the league in possession to the bottom third almost overnight, all seemingly because of one loss – which happened to be their only loss in an otherwise dominant three-and-a-half month stretch of 22 games in which they went 18W-1L-3D with a +40 goal differential (that’s real, and it’s spectacular) against teams from three different leagues.

It was an overreaction! When you have superior talent – which LAFC do, against almost everybody they come up against – possession does actually matter. And when you add Giroud, whose movement and vision in possession are brilliant, it should matter even more! Get on the ball and use it, man.

They mostly didn’t unless the game state forced them to. And I think it’s telling that the only time in the postseason in which LAFC looked really, really good was the second half of their final Round One game vs. Vancouver. And that just happens to be when Cherundolo finally went back to the 4-3-3 and had his team get on the ball.

But against the Sounders in the Conference Semifinals, it was back to the 5-2-3 for the majority of the game. That’s not why LAFC lost – set pieces, finishing variance and Stefan Frei were the reasons. But the Black & Gold didn’t really control the game and start stacking chances until they’d, yup, switched back to the 4-3-3 with about 25 minutes to go in regulation time. What if they’d played like that the whole game?

“The story tonight isn't Seattle coming in here and outplaying us,” is how veteran wingback Ryan Hollingshead put it afterward. “It's us feeling like we lost a clear chance to win another title.”

I think the tactical choices they made down the stretch and into the postseason cost them that chance. Period.

3
Some developments

I am generally anti-false 9, but Bogusz was brilliant in that role this year and Cherundolo deserves credit for that. Olivera put up 14g/5a across all competitions in his first full season. Campos played nearly 2,300 minutes and scored what ended up being the club’s biggest goal since Gareth Bale's iconic header. David Martínez might very well win 22 Under 22 next year. I wish we’d gotten to see more of Nathan Ordaz, but the kid impressed in his limited minutes.

LAFC are winning a lot, but it’s not coming entirely at the expense of player development. They’ve struck a very useful balance – though I think that gets harder next year if they add the DP everyone expects them to add.

Five Players to Build Around
  • Denis Bouanga (W): One of the most terrifying open-field players in league history. The question is, can he be more effective and goal-dangerous playing off of Giroud next year?
  • Mateusz Bogusz (FW/W/AM): Adds value everywhere. Including maybe in the transfer market? Don’t be surprised if a godfather offer comes in.
  • Olivier Giroud (FW): Four months ago he was France’s top attacking sub at the Euros. A month before that he was finishing up a 15g/8a season for AC Milan. He didn’t suddenly forget how to play.
  • Timothy Tillman (CM): Reliable, prime-aged, two-way central midfielder who keeps the floor high.
  • Eduard Atuesta (CM/DM): The thing that gave me the most hope for next year was seeing Atuesta get 45 minutes at the 6 in the must-win game vs. the ‘Caps. That should be his spot, presuming he's back next year (he was on loan from Palmeiras).

Why aren’t Olivera and Martínez on this list? Because everybody expects LAFC to sign Antoine Griezmann as their third DP this winter (or maybe next summer). And if that’s the case, then the front three goes – from left to right – Bouanga, Giroud, Griezmann. And that puts the role of the Black & Gold’s two most promising prospects up for at least a few questions.

I’m not saying they shouldn’t make the signing; Griezmann is still tearing it up for Atlético Madrid, and he is the exact type of match-winning talent that could’ve gotten this team one more trophy (or more) over the past couple of years. You sign Antoine Griezmann if you have the chance.

But it does present some fit questions, and fit questions have a way of becoming chemistry questions. Something to keep an eye on.

The backline is also something to keep an eye on, as both Aaron Long and Jesús Murillo are out of contract, while Sergi Palencia and Marlon both have options. So does goalkeeper Hugo Lloris, who I would expect to be back. But still, take that group and add in central midfielder Lewis O’Brien – who’s got an option at a reported whopping $1.8 million, which seems like a lot for what he brings! – and suddenly the front office is faced with a lot of decisions to make about guys who were central to this year’s successes, such as they were. And that doesn’t even mention Ilie Sánchez, who’s also out of contract.

It feels like a lot, but it doesn’t have to be. Even if they do the bare minimum and bring the same group back next season, they’ll go into the year as one of the favorites. The personnel is that good.

The question, then, will be more about how LAFC play rather than who they play.