We’ve got contrasting styles, big-time stars, and two fan bases that are hungry for a bite of the MLS Cup apple, as it were, on a collision course.
Hosting Saturday’s final is the LA Galaxy, who earned the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, dominated in the first two rounds of the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs, and put together a gusty win over the Seattle Sounders to book a place in MLS Cup. Traveling to Los Angeles are the New York Red Bulls, who finished seventh in the East and became the lowest seed to reach MLS Cup in league history.
To help get you ready for Saturday’s final (4 pm ET | Apple TV - Free; FS1, FOX Deportes; TSN, RDS), we’ve identified 10 key statistics that will tell the story of (and maybe even decide) MLS Cup 2024 presented by Audi.
There are plenty of good attacking teams in MLS: Inter Miami, the Columbus Crew, and LAFC all come to mind. But no team in MLS created better looks than the LA Galaxy in 2024, with their league-leading 57.5 non-penalty xG in the regular season based on FBref’s data.
By adding Gabriel Pec and Joseph Paintsil as Designated Player wingers in the offseason, the Galaxy “put fast receivers along with a good quarterback” in Riqui Puig, as their general manager Will Kuntz put it to Backheeled. Even without Puig, whose torn ACL will keep him out well into 2025, Greg Vanney’s team isn’t short on attacking stars. Paintsil, Pec, Dejan Joveljić, and Marco Reus form a fearsome attacking unit.
The Red Bulls’ defense will have to be as sharp as they’ve been all year to stand up to a high-flying attack.
The Galaxy will attack. We know that, and so do the Red Bulls.
And if you’re Sandro Schwarz, that’s okay. His RBNY squad averaged just 44.5% possession in the regular season, according to FBref. The New York Red Bulls are content to let the opposition take risks with the ball, setting themselves up to win possession in advantageous positions and transition quickly into open space.
If you want to get a feel for how Saturday’s match will unfold, the picture is clear: LA will own the ball, while the Red Bulls set up to capitalize on any sloppy moment coming from their hosts.
Now, just because the Red Bulls don’t dominate the ball doesn’t mean they’re a dull, low-block team. Schwarz has dialed back his team’s high pressing at times this year compared to his predecessors, but RBNY still get in your grill.
According to FBref, they finished 10th in the regular season in tackles in the attacking third of the field per 90 minutes, with 2.38. In the playoffs so far, they’ve made a deliberate effort to push even teams like the Columbus Crew to the limit in the build-up, adding man-to-man pressure in the attacking half to force turnovers.
If Schwarz approaches MLS Cup anything like he did his team’s Round One Best-of-3 Series, expect to see the Red Bulls flying upfield in the press.
The Galaxy, with their possession-oriented approach and comfort playing passes in tight corridors, should be well-equipped to handle whatever the Red Bulls’ press throws at them.
According to American Soccer Analysis, Vanney’s team averaged an expected passing completion rate of 85.9% this year in their defensive third, the fourth-highest rate in MLS. They deliberately play short passes through pressure before establishing control higher up the field. It’s hard, then, to fluster the LA Galaxy.
But what if the LA Galaxy were missing their best possession player…
…oh wait, they are.
After tearing his ACL in the Western Conference Final, Puig will miss Saturday’s MLS Cup. That’s a huge blow to the Galaxy, especially against a defensively-oriented team like the New York Red Bulls where the Spaniard’s penchant for dropping deep to receive the ball before wriggling out of tight spaces would’ve been valuable.
No MLS player got on the ball more than Puig in 2024, whose 3,146 touches put him well clear of the second-place Artur (2,809), according to FBref. How well the Galaxy adapt without their most important on-ball presence is, perhaps, the big question this weekend.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Red Bulls sure do like to pass the ball forward as much as possible. They ranked fifth in the regular season for average vertical passing distance (7.23 yards), according to American Soccer Analysis.
On Saturday, RBNY will do their best to skip lines and find their front three streaking forward on the break. It’s in their DNA. Expect them to put a bunch of pressure on the Galaxy’s backline — specifically on 23-year-old Emiro Garcés and 36-year-old Maya Yoshida. The more the visitors can find Lewis Morgan, Emil Forsberg, and Dante Vanzeir in space where they can drive at two recovering center backs, the better the Red Bulls’ chances of victory.
Speaking of Lewis Morgan, the Scot has been fantastic in 2024, winning Comeback Player of the Year after a brutal injury stretch, transitioning into the striker position on a full-time basis, and leading his team in goals, with 13 in the regular season.
But it’s not just the box score stats that love Morgan. The underlying numbers love him, too. He leads regular RBNY attackers in non-penalty xG+xA on a per-90 minute basis, according to FBref. He also ranked in the 90th percentile among MLS strikers for shot-creating actions, averaging 3.77 per 90. Morgan, with his speed and savviness on the ball, will be more than a handful for the Galaxy.
Losing Puig hurts, there’s no doubt about it. But Gabriel Pec’s progression on the right wing makes it sting just a little less.
With 16 goals and 12 primary assists in the regular season, Pec earned every bit of the Newcomer of the Year award he received this year. The 23-year-old has developed into a Best XI winger and has had real success against three center back setups so far in the postseason. Pec was so dangerous in Game 2 against the Colorado Rapids back in Round One that Chris Armas had to move Lalas Abubakar away from the Brazilian at halftime. Then against Minnesota United in the conference semis, Pec torched Jefferson Diaz, got him sent off, and bagged a brace.
Pec’s constant danger in the final third — as shown by the fact that he’s averaging over three-quarters of an expected goal contribution every 90 minutes — will undoubtedly cause problems for the Red Bulls, who also defend with three center backs.
After a hot-and-cold regular season, Carlos Coronel has been almost exclusively red-hot in the postseason. According to FBref, he’s saved 3.7 goals above expected across the New York Red Bulls' four playoff games. Coronel was excellent against Orlando City in the Eastern Conference Final, making this crucial save to stop Facundo Torres’ effort in the first half:
John McCarthy, who will be Coronel’s opposite on Saturday, won MLS Cup MVP in 2022. If Coronel keeps up this form, he’ll have a real chance to claim that honor on Saturday as his team lifts the Philip F. Anschutz Trophy.
As long as we’re spotlighting key players, Marco Reus was likely going to play a big part before Puig went down with that ACL tear. But now that the Galaxy’s go-to midfielder will miss the final? Reus just got himself a few more lines. How long he’ll be up on stage, however, is another question.
Since arriving from Dortmund in the summer, Reus has only played 522 minutes across the regular season and playoffs. It would be foolish to doubt the 35-year-old’s quality, but I’m more than willing to question his durability — he doesn’t have a ton of reps under his belt with this team and he left Saturday’s Western Conference finale with groin tightness, according to the Apple TV broadcast.
It’s worth watching Reus to see exactly what his role will be in Puig’s absence. That the spotlight on him just got a bit bigger won’t bother the German, but there’s no denying his importance in MLS Cup.
