Back in February, before the start of the season, I said that for Inter Miami’s 2024 to be successful, they’d have to do two things:
- Win multiple trophies
- Set the single-season points record.
Did that mean, from the jump, that one of the trophies had to be the Supporters’ Shield? Yes, it did. As a Shield truther, I think it’s the hardest and best domestic title to win. And as someone who watches every week, from February to December, I value the consistency of a team that wins the Shield over the six-week burst of excellence that can sometimes be enough to win an MLS Cup.
Inter Miami now only have two possible trophies left – the Shield and MLS Cup – so it’s do-or-die time for them.
Here’s the good news: As of Saturday’s playoff-clinching win over FC Cincinnati, the Herons have what looks like an unassailable lead in the Shield race, and are now on pace (2.15 ppg) to equal New England’s single-season points record of 73, set back in 2021.
That’s where our buddy Taylor Twellman comes in. He’s calling his shot:
I, frankly, agree with him. If the Herons win six of their final eight games, that’s 74 points. That’s enough. Top of the table in 2024, Shield acquired, No. 1 all-time.
But would that actually make them favorites to follow up the Shield with an MLS Cup win?
Nope. The simple fact is Miami aren’t actually playing all that well, and that’s been the case almost all year.
Just going by the eye test, they can be stretched and vulnerable in a way that belies their place in the standings; they have flitted between formations; it’s not yet clear what their best XI is; and new center back David Martínez is still integrating.
If you want to bring underlying data into it, you’ll see they’re overperforming their expected goals differential by +19. That is massive – not quite as big as St. Louis CITY's mark last year (and we saw how quickly that crumbled), but bigger than Austin FC's the year before (that crumbled, too).
As it stands, Miami are an extreme mathematical outlier:
The difference here, and why nobody thinks the Herons will crumble, is their overall talent level. Lionel Messi and Luis Suárez are, when healthy, probably the two biggest match-winners in the league, and about half of that xG overperformance is due to them (shout out to my guy Arman Kafai for that one). Based upon their respective histories, that actually is sustainable.
It is not a two-man show, though, as players like Diego Gómez, Matías Rojas, Robert Taylor and Leo Campana have all proved capable of match-winning moments. Because of that, Miami will find a way more often than not. They can brute force wins against most teams just based on raw talent.
The problem comes when they can’t. In games where they don’t just roll out 11 players and have clear superiority at, say, nine spots, the Herons have been relatively easy prey:
- They were buried twice by CF Monterrey in Concacaf Champions Cup.
- They were beaten by both Tigres and Columbus in Leagues Cup.
- A closer-to-full-strength Cincy side crushed them 6-1 last month.
Overall, against top-four teams in each conference and the LIGA MX giants, Miami are just 3W-6L-2D, with a -9 goal differential. That’s… not great.
This is why I’ve said Martínez is potentially the most important signing anybody made this summer. The Paraguay international is the type of center back whose distribution – he breaks lines easily, and in rhythm – has a smoothing effect on the machinery of the entire Miami midfield. That would, in theory, allow this team to really connect to each other with the ball and, via that, become a whole greater than the sum of their parts.
This is the Crew’s blueprint. It’s why they won last year’s MLS Cup, and this year’s Leagues Cup, and why they beat the Monterrey and Tigres sides that handled Miami with relative ease.
It’s the level Miami have to reach, and I think they know it. So for the next month-and-a-half, including Saturday's trip to Chicago (8:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass) keep one eye on that single-season points record.
Keep the other on Martínez. For Miami to become the team they need to be, he’s the key.
