FiveThirtyEight released a set of updated projections for the Audi 2017 MLS Cup Playoffs on Friday, ranking the seven remaining teams in order of likelihood to take home the 2017 title.
And even though the Seattle Sounders became the first team to advance to the Conference Championships when they beat Vancouver on Thursday night, the defending champs aren’t the No. 1 projection to win MLS Cup.
Not even close.
FiveThirtyEight gives Toronto FC, who lead the New York Red Bulls 2-1 heading into Leg 2 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals at BMO Field on Sunday (3 pm ET; ESPN in the US | TSN1/4, TVAS in Canada), a 41 percent chance of winning MLS Cup, tops in the league. Seattle clock in at second with a 21 percent chance, while Columbus Crew SC, who lead NYCFC 4-1 heading into Leg 2 of their East semifinal at Yankee Stadium on Sunday (5 pm ET; ESPN in the US | TSN 1, TVAS in Canada), have a 19 percent chance of lifting Cup. The site actually gives Columbus a 90 percent chance of advancing to the Eastern Conference Championship, better odds than even TFC, who were given an 87 percent shot.
The New York teams have FiveThirtyEight’s worst odds of winning Cup; the Red Bulls were given a three percent chance and NYCFC have a two percent shot.
Find FiveThirtyEight’s full playoff projections here.
