The first Texas Derby of the MLS season sees Dallas host Houston at Toyota Stadium, with just seven points and five places separating the two in the Western Conference Play-Off Spots.
However, with Dallas leading the El Capitán stakes 9-8 after their win in 2022 and recent domination in the derby over the past five years, it’s a game with plenty riding on it down in the Lone Star State.
FC Dallas vs Houston Dynamo Odds
FC Dallas vs Houston Dynamo betting lines are current as of 05/18/23 at 07.00 ET and were found at FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: FC Dallas (-140) • Houston Dynamo (+320)
- Total Goals: Over 2.5 (-122) • Under 2.5 (+100)
- Both Teams To Score: Yes (-136) • No (+108)
FC Dallas vs Houston Dynamo Match Prediction
FC Dallas 2:0 Houston Dynamo
An old soccer adage states that the form book goes out the window when it comes to a local derby, but in this case, it’s hard to see anything but a comfortable Dallas win on home turf.
Two big wins in a week have seen the Hoops surge into the top three in the West, just a point now behind LAFC, although they have played a game more.
Much of that is due to the form of Jesus Ferreira, who has scored five times in his last six MLS outings, firing him up into a joint-second spot in the Golden Boot race behind only LAFC’s Dénis Bouanga.
Nico Estéve’s system is built to get the best out of Ferreira, although the injury to creative outlet Paul Arriola will be a concern on the left-hand side of midfield - the winger’s injury sustained after coming on as a substitute against Austin might see him sidelined for some time.
It hasn’t stopped Ferreira, though - his movement in the box has been back to its electric best in the last few games, and after haunting one Texas-based opponent against Austin last weekend, don’t be surprised to see him out to dominate another one here.
And Houston is going to have a tough time stopping him. They come off the back of two losses in a row, including a hurtful one to the Sounders where both Amine Bassi and star midfielder Hector Herrera were sent off, allowing Seattle to plunge a late dagger into Dynamo hearts.
They’re yet to record a shutout on the road this season, and their 0-1-4 record away from home doesn’t make for pretty reading for fans.
However, the return of Herrera and Bassi will give them some hope that there’s no repeat of the slightly toothless showing at struggling Minnesota in midweek, where Houston were the architect of their downfall in many ways defensively.
Those defensive errors have been a critical part of the season on the road - which is slightly bizarre because, on home turf, Houston has been relatively rock solid - conceding just once at Shell Energy Stadium this campaign.
This is not at home, though, so all signs point to a Dallas win and a continuation of their surge up the Western Conference table.
FC Dallas vs Houston Dynamo Best Bet
Dallas Moneyline (-140) • FanDuel Sportsbook
Dallas’ form at home has been impressive, where their opponents have struggled on the road. Houston are giving up big opportunities, and Dallas have a striker in red-hot form. It all adds up to a home win.
Jesus Ferreira, Anytime Goalscorer (+100) • FanDuel Sportsbook
Ferreira put his name up in lights when he scored the winner away at Austin on Matchday 12. He then added two more in midweek against Vancouver, and with one in-state rival put to the sword, I expect him to be right in the mix to hurt another by getting on the scoresheet once again here.
