Cyle Larin's form could be the most sustainable among top goalscorers

Orlando City SC striker Cyle Larin is near the top of the MLS goalscoring charts, scoring seven in his first 10 games, tied for the second most in the league behind the Houston Dynamo's Erick "Cubo" Torres and Chicago's Nemanja Nikolic.

The difference is that Larin is the only one of the three without a goal from the penalty spot, where Torres has scored four goals and Nikolic has scored one.  The two other players who have scored at least seven goals this season are Columbus Crew SC's Justin Meram and Philadelphia's C.J. Sapong, with Meram not taking any penalties and Sapong scoring one.

All five of these players have overperformed their expected goal values, but to varying degrees. All of the numbers below do not include penalties, which have an xG value of .79.

The expected goals value is the number of goals you would expect the player to score on average based on his quality of chances. As you can see, four of the five players are overperforming. Their level of finishing has been exceptional so far, but they could see some regression and a drop in the rate of their goalscoring.

The difference between Larin's actual goal tally and his total xG value is the closest among the top five. The rate of his goalscoring seems more sustainable as his shots average an xG value of .26, an exceptionally high number considering the average xG/shot is .11 among those who have taken at least 15 shots. It should be noted that the player with the highest xG value per shot in 2016 was Robbie Keane at .20.

While it's clear that Larin is very selective with his shots, it is also clear he is able to get in the right spots to get quality chances. In this way, he's very comparable to a player like Mexico and Bayer Leverkusen forward Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez, who has had an average of .19 xG/shot value over the past two seasons in the Bundesliga. He has taken just 110 shots over the past two years, compared to a player such as Borussia Dortmund's Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who has taken over 100 non-penalty shots just this season.

Two important notes before looking at Week 11's xG numbers: Penalties have a value of .79, and own goals are not factored into the values.