With the MLS Cup matchup set, the question now becomes, who is the favorite to take home the trophy?
According to ESPN's Soccer Power Index, it's Columbus Crew SC.
SPI is a rating system designed to be the best possible representation of a team's current overall skill level. SPI is forward-looking and predictive. It's designed to project which teams will have the most success going forward, not rate the success of teams in the past -- though the two are obviously related.
The rating is based on goals scored and allowed, not wins, losses and draws. This goes back to SPI's definition of being a forward-looking system.
It's also important to keep in mind why Crew SC are such big favorites over the Portland Timbers. The reason is simple: Sunday's match will be played at Columbus's MAPFRE Stadium.
According to ESPN's Paul Carr, the Timbers would be favorites if the game were played in on a neutral field or Portland were at home.
And Columbus only just beat out the Timbers for hosting rights; Crew SC and Portland both finished the regular season with 53 points and 15 wins, with Columbus edging out the Timbers for home field advantage at Cup by virtue of goal differential. Crew SC finished the year with a +5 mark, three goals better than the Timbers' +2 diffential.
Much of that advantage came down to the regular season's final day, with Crew SC's 5-0 Decision Day trouncing of D.C. United giving them the ultimate advantage over Portland, whodefeated the Colorado Rapids 4-1 later in the day.
