2016 was a dream season for the Colorado Rapids. They acquired US internationals Jermaine Jones and Tim Howard, along with Shkelzen Gashi, and rode a historic defense all the way to the Western Conference Championship, where they lost to eventual MLS Cup-winning Seattle Sounders.
With their 3-0 loss to the Chicago Fire on Wednesday night, the Rapids have collected just seven points through their first 10 games and sit at the bottom of Western Conference. For reference, the Rapids collected a whopping 20 points in their first 10 games last season, the most in the league.
The good news Rapids fans is that this is MLS and six teams will make the MLS Cup Playoffs in the West. We all saw what the Sounders did last season, even after being counted out by some pundits. The Rapids currently sit just six points behindVancouver Whitecaps FC for that No. 6 seed with 24 games left to play. The bad news for Colorado is that the underlying signs aren’t looking so good.
The defense has gone from one of the best ever, conceding the fewest goals per game at home in MLS history (0.41), to league average, conceding 1.5 goals per game.
That is a problem, but the real issue continues to be the attack. They have scored just eight goals so far, three coming against the San Jose Earthquakes last week, and have been shut out in four of their last five games.
They are averaging just eight shots per game, two fewer than any other team, and their 2.4 shots on target per game are also the fewest in MLS.
Heading into the game on the Wednesday, the advanced statistics weren’t any better. Their 8.3 expected goals, meaning that on average they would be expected to score 8.3 goals based on their quality of chances, was the lowest value in MLS, according to data provided by Opta. This shows that their eight goals were just about what they deserved based on what they were creating.
They weren’t the most high-powered attack in 2016 either, scoring just 39 goals. But those underlying numbers were a bit better as you can see below.
Year |
Shots/Game |
Shots on Target/Game |
xG/Game |
|---|---|---|---|
2017 |
8 |
2.4 |
.92* |
2016 |
12.79 |
4.44 |
1.08 |
* = Prior to Wednesday
After a trip to Philadelphia on Saturday (7 pm ET; MLS LIVE), the Rapids will have four straight home games. Three of those come against conference opponents: Sporting KC, Portland and LA. While it’s clear we have a long way to go before counting Colorado out, a failure to improve their attack and a homestand that doesn’t produce some good results, could put the Rapids even more behind the 8-ball.
