Evaluating any trade within nine months is usually a fool's errand. All you have to do is ask a Memphis Grizzlies fan what their thoughts were when Pau Gasol was first traded and what their thoughts are now.
Two months ago we were talking about how the Chicago Fire won the Dax McCarty trade, putting the New York Red Bulls to shame when they forked over just $400,000 in General Allocation Money for the defensive midfielder. That was before the Fire dropped six of seven games and fell out of the Supporters' Shield race and the Red Bulls started to look more like the Red Bulls of previous years.
The truth is that the "winner" of that trade is likely still to be determined. It's tough to know exactly how the Red Bulls chose to use their $200,000 in GAM this year, though it was likely used from relief under their salary budget to sign Fidel Escobar and Muhamed Keita. We also don't know how they will choose to use another $200,000 next year.
On the Red Bulls side we do know that the McCarty loss led to an opportunity for Tyler Adams, who has turned into one of the most exciting young players in the league. He is now playing as a right wingback instead of in a defensive midfield role after Jesse Marsch's formational shift, but any professional experience is a plus for an 18-year-old prospect.
For Chicago, the evaluation is a bit easier. McCarty has been one of the top players at his position this season and a driving force in the Fire's resurgence. It is likely he will continue this level of production for another couple of seasons in Chicago.
It is also important to note that this trade was the first of what has become an increasing number of big-money trades within MLS.
Player |
Date |
Total Allocation Money traded |
|---|---|---|
Dax McCarty |
1/13/17 |
$400,000 |
Kevin Molino |
1/26/17 |
$650,000 |
Dom Dwyer |
7/25/17 |
$1,600,000 (some incentive-based) |
Ethan Finlay |
8/9/17 |
$425,000 |
Paul Arriola |
8/10/17 |
$500,000 |
Krisztian Nemeth |
8/10/17 |
$400,000 |
McCarty is clearly at the level or above the level of all the players above. He was also traded directly to the Fire for a sum that is less than all of the ones above outside of Krisztian Nemeth's. You have to say that if you were a neutral GM/owner you would probably want McCarty for $400,000 rather than any of the players listed above for the amount of money they were traded for.
You can say that the Fire proved to be opportunistic to trade for McCarty before these other trades happened. If the 30-year-old were to be traded now, it is likely he would fetch a sum higher than what it was in January.
Analysis of this trade will continue in the years to come as McCarty tries to lead the Fire to their first trophy since 2006. It will also be an important as we see how Adams progresses into a potential leader in New York and, if the Red Bulls decide to transfer him, what number he fetches on the market. The impact of players like Escobar and Keita should also be considered in any discussion of this trade.
If you're surprised that this trade continues to be discussed, I've got some bad news from you, it's not going to stop. It was a milestone moment in this league as a contender traded away it's captain and one of their best players in an attempt to have more flexibility under their salary budget and to give opportunities to younger, cheaper players.
Saturday's match (4 pm ET; UniMás, Facebook.com in US | MLS LIVE in Canada) will see McCarty face off against his old team, but both clubs it's just another match as they will continue to achieve their goals that were set when they made this swap of assets. It will be a collective effort to do so, with the assets being just a part of a larger team concept. How the other players, coaches and front offices fare at their jobs will be one of the main deciders on who "wins" this trade, years down the road.
