Matt "the Armchair Analyst" Doyle breaks down all of Sunday's second legs of the Conference Semifinals of the Audi 2015 MLS Cup Playoffs. Check them all out.
EAST: New York-DC| Columbus-Montreal | WEST:Vancouver-Portland |Dallas-Seattle
Rivalries are fun. The drama and hard tackles on the field. The banter off it. Sometimes, even a goalkeeper coach gets involved.
My guess is that tweet has gone on the Timbers' bulletin board as they head to Vancouver for the second leg of the Western Conference Semifinals on Sunday (10 pm ET; FS1 & FOXDeportes in the US | TSN1 & RDS1 in Canada).
The scoreless draw in leg 1 was more entertaining than the final score lets on, as both teams had a surfeit of chances. Maxi Urruti hit the post, and Gershon Koffie got an open look from 16 yards, and David Ousted tipped a free kick just around the post, and Octavio Rivero fired high from 12, and so on and so forth.
It was good fun. Leg 2 should be even better.
The Trends: Vancouver have now won just once in their last seven games across all competitions, and -- let's just say it here -- it goes back to the lack of scoring from their forwards. The team has exactly one goal from their No. 9s in the past two months, and it came from veteran Robert Earnshaw in the Decision Day win over Houston.
Just as big a worry for the hosts? They have just one home win against playoff teams since April, going 1-4-2 at BC Place in that span.
Portland are 3-0-0 in their last three road games, outscoring opponents 8-3 over that stretch. And they're 4-1-1 in their last six away from Providence Park, so it's not like this is a blip. They've been good away from home the entire second half of the season.
What Vancouver Will Do: Give Pedro Morales a chance to create
When Vancouver's No. 10 plays, they are simply a different team. His ability to make field-opening passes out of nothing is elite by any standards, and he doesn't need much time or space to do it:
I cut the video off right there because Cristian Techera butchered his first touch, but it should give you an idea of how good Morales is at picking out his runners.
Carl Robinson hasn't let slip whether or not Morales will start, but it's clear the 'Caps need to get him out there for at least half an hour -- maybe more. I'm usually against starting a guy who you know you'll have to sub, but I honestly think that it might be worth playing Morales from the bell and just letting him go until he's spent.
How to stop it: Play a deep line
The big benefit of keeping a shutout at home for the Timbers is that they can go on the road and play their "normal" game, for lack of a better description. Portland love to counterpunch when they're not in Oregon, and since the 'Caps have a bunch of wingers that need open field space in order to be dangerous, counterpunching is a good tactic to employ.
So they'll sit deep, corral the wingers and dare Rivero to beat them.
What Portland Will Do: Build through the middle
The long-awaited ascent of Darlington Nagbe to stardom seems finally to have happened, and it's been his ability on the ball in central midfield that's done it. Yes, he has the tools of a winger, but no, he does not have the mindset of a winger. He needs to be central, needs to get in a rhythm, and in so doing he becomes more influential on the game.
And it looks like he'll have a full roster of sidekicks available, as both Diego Chara and Will Johnson are going full in training, and Diego Valeri remains irreplaceable. My guess is that Johnson is the odd man out.
How to stop it: Step high and hard
One of the things that makes Whitecaps rookie Tim Parker stand out is his versatility. He can battle behemoth No. 9s like Fanendo Adi in the box, but also has the quickness, instincts and IQ to come high off his line and make plays where other central defenders are uncomfortable:
So much of what Portland has done right over the past month has come through the middle. Parker and Kendall Waston in defense, and Koffie and Matias Laba in central midfield have to make sure that becomes a no-fly zone.
What's it mean?
Even if Morales plays, I just can't ignore that home record from the 'Caps. They had every chance to run away with the West over the summer, but when faced with quality opposition they, time and again, came up short.
Why would Sunday be any different?
