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And so here the USMNT are, back in what is essentially (but not mathematically) a must-win game. Their most recent one was just two months ago in World Cup qualifier against Guatemala, and they passed with flying colors: 4-0 in a dominant performance that cleared a path to the Hexagonal.
Tonight's game against Costa Rica (8 pm ET; FS1) is a different sort of thing entirely. Guatemala were ranked 90th in the world; the Ticos have had a permanent spot in the top 40 for the past 15 years, and in 2014 made it all the way to the quarterfinals of the World Cup. The US were able to simply overwhelm Guatemala with talent, and while the US roster is clearly significantly more talented than Costa Rica, the visitors will by no means be "overwhelmed."
Here's what's going to happen:
What they'll do: Absorb pressure, counterattack and dive
Costa Rica make no pretenses about playing the beautiful game. The days of Fonseca, Centeno, Wanchope and Gomez -- the group that came of age in the mid-90s and, through their greatness made Costa Rican soccer a going concern -- are over. That group played, at times, the most attractive, aggressive, carefree soccer in the region.
This is a different group. They have great players in great teams and in great leagues (Celso Borges with Deportivo La Coruna; Bryan Ruiz with Sporting CP; Joel Campbell kinda sorta with Arsenal), but they're far more pragmatic about what they perceive as their strengths and weaknesses.
As such, they defend deep in a 5-4-1 alignment and put close to zero focus on midfield possession. Their main distribution comes from central defender Johnny Acosta, #2 in the below network passing map:
That was made using Opta data. The circles represent each player's aggregate position, while the thickness of the lines connecting them represent the number of passes shuttled back and forth. The only real noteworthy connections against Paraguay were Acosta's to his two fellow central defenders, an nobody got the ball to Campbell (#12).
Paraguay, in other words, did a good job of preventing the Ticos from getting out in transition by forcing Acosta's distribution sideways. Defensive midfielder Yeltsin Tejada (#17), meanwhile, didn't complete a single pass to an attacker.
As I mentioned at the top, they'll also dive:
Anything that has the chance of earning a yellow card on a defender, or a set piece in a good spot, or just one more chance to get in the referee's ear and try to lay the groundwork for a call down the road a little bit.
How to solve it: Make Acosta pass backwards & the 'keeper punt to midfield
If the US can turn Acosta around with some sort of staggered pressure -- not the high, hard press of Chile, but something a little more selective -- they can eliminate him as an outlet valve, at which point he'll go safety first and play the ball back to Patrick Pemberton, who is no Nick Rimando when it comes to footwork and distribution. Forcing him into a series of punts to midfield is exactly what the US want, since there is a size, athleticism and numbers advantage in Red, White & Blue.
Win those balls, amp up the tempo, and play direct toward goal. Paraguay never really got Costa Rica running, and never put them on the back foot. The US need to, because if the game's at a snail's pace, the Ticos will absorb pressure forever.
What we'll do: Get the fullbacks involved and draw fouls in the attacking third
Look, there are lots of things that the US have to do better in this one. Michael Bradley said it in the press conference on Thursday: "Forget about formations and tactics, more players have to play better." He's not wrong (and he's obviously including himself in that assessment).
But formations and tactics do, still, matter -- even if the US are never given any specific tactical instruction. I've heard it from enough players and enough people surrounding the team that Jurgen Klinsmann loathes implementing any specific tactical training in practice, information that jibes with Philipp Lahm's autobiography.
One way the lack of tactical forethought wrecked havoc upon the US chances against Colombia was the way in which it eliminated Fabian Johnson as an attacking threat:
Johnson is our best and most creative passer in the final third, a guy who was essentially a Bundesliga All-Star on the wing this past season for a Champions League-bound team. There are few players in the world playing that spot at a higher level.
Playing him at left back eliminated him as an attacking threat. And because Bobby Wood -- a center forward who runs, but doesn't do a lot of clever positional defending -- was on the left wing, Johnson needed a ton of help from the midfield. That dragged Jermaine Jones out of the center and reduced the US numbers in central midfield, leaving Bradley stranded on an island.
Jones wasn't best pleased with the gameplan, saying afterward "We have three midfielders where I feel like if we have a good gameplan, we can put a lot of pressure on other teams. Today was more focused on Colombia and on the left side to help Fabi, so we lost one guy in midfield. So it was tougher to play, yeah."
Tactics! Strategy! Formation! They all matter.
The US have a true left back on the roster who plays at a high level -- Edgar Castillo is a starter for Monterrey, who finished second in Liga MX this season. He also started the qualifying win over Guatemala, so he's been in big games before.
Can he be handled by big, strong attackers at the back post? Absolutely. But Costa Rica don't present that. And even if they do, I'd argue that getting Johnson onto the wing is worth any perceived defensive trade-off, because if he's on the wing this is the type of pass that is actually a killer ball:
Bradley hit that ball blind, which you can kill him for if you want. But the real issues here are that 1) Wood is making a striker's run, compressing the defense in the most dangerous spot of the field, instead of stretching it out; 2) Jones is deeper than he needs to be because he's so preoccupied with helping Johnson; and 3) there's no threat of a Johnson overlap.
That last one is what really gets me. Why play Johnson -- a subpar defender -- at left back if all you're going to ask him to do is defend? The whole point of playing him there is to get another attacker onto the field in the first place!
How they'll solve it: Meet at the midfield stripe
The lack of cohesion in the US midfield was, more than anything else, their undoing against Colombia. Costa Rica won't take advantage of that in the same way los Cafeteros did, but they can apply selective pressure at the stripe, especially if Bradley is left receiving the ball with his back to the goal and no ready-made outlets for a one-touch pass (this is what led to the second Colombian goal, though that turnover was much deeper in the US end).
Costa Rica don't want to come too far up the field because that will leave room for the likes of Wood and Gyasi Zardes to run in behind, or even Clint Dempsey if things break right. But they'll have specific cues they'll recognize for when, where and how to press, and they'll be well-drilled.
Also, I mentioned the set pieces thing earlier and haven't touched on it yet. Simply put: The US must defend better on restarts, and they must take advantage of Costa Rica's loss of Kendall Waston to a (once again deserved) red card. He was by far their best individual defender in the air, and by far their best individual attacker on restarts in the air.
I'm not advocating for a million crosses from the run of play. But the US need to draw fouls in the final third, and because of that I am ipso facto advocating for the presence of Darlington Nagbe for as long as possible. Nobody on the US roster is as adept at winning fouls in dangerous spots.
What's it mean for the US?
As solid and disciplined and well-drilled as this Costa Rican team is, they shouldn't even remotely be considered favorites here. The US have more talent at every line (including goalkeeper, since Keylor Navas is injured), and a host of dynamic attacking subs that the Ticos just can't match. This shouldn't be a cake-walk, but... the US haven't lost a non-friendly home game to Costa Rica since 1989 for a reason. The visitors have always been at a talent disadvantage, and that's no different this time.
Now, it's not technically a must-win game. If the US draw this game, and the next against Paraguay, and Colombia win all three, then the US, Costa Rica and Paraguay will all be even in second place on two points a piece, at which point it'll come down to goal differential. So it's entirely possible that the US could advance from this group with 2 points and 0 goals -- which would be the most Klinsmann thing ever.
But nobody should count on that happening. And a loss -- another thing that's entirely possible, since Costa Rica did actually beat the Yanks at home in a friendly last autumn -- would eliminate the US entirely.
