Matt "the Armchair Analyst" Doyle breaks down both of Sunday's first legs of the Conference Championships of the Audi 2015 MLS Cup Playoffs. Check them out.
EAST: Columbus-New York | WEST:Portland-Dallas
Adapt or perish, now as ever, is nature's inexorable imperative. –H.G. Wells
FC Dallas have been pretty remarkable over the last two seasons, because they've played so much of that time with such a young squad; because they've seen their best forward and locker-room leader (Blas Perez) age into a bit player; because they've groomed kids through the draft and the academy; because they've done so much work with their best player, midfield magician Mauro Diaz, on the sideline nursing various injuries.
They have flowed from form to form and while it hasn't always been smooth, the one constant has been a sense of forward motion. Losses still hurt, but losses in which seven or eight guys aged 24 or less get experience can be long-term wins.
Portland have trod a similar path, though with an older group and more turnover. They've replaced both of their starting central defenders over the past 18 months, and their goalkeeper and both fullbacks. They've finally found a No. 9 to build around. They've survived an injury to the guy who was their best player, and in the process discovered a new alpha dog (spoiler alert: It's Darlington Nagbe). They've moved from one formation to another and back again.
And now they meet in Sunday's Western Conference Championship (7:30 pm ET; FS1 | Fox Deportes | TSN2) at Providence Park.
The Trends:
Dallas were the league's second-best team, finishing with the exact same regular-season record as the Red Bulls, but missing out on the Supporters' Shield by virtue of goal differential. RBNY were a league-best +19, while FCD finished a distant second at +13.
Dig deeper, though, and you can see the difference between a full-strength FC Dallas team and a Diaz-less FCD. They were 15-6-5 with a +18 goal differential when he played, and went 3-4-1 with a -5 differential when he sat.
So you could say that when Oscar Pareja was able to trot out a full-strength lineup, he was putting out what was, by the numbers, the best team in the league. You'd get some pushback and you wouldn't necessarily be 100 percent right, but you'd definitely have an argument to make.
Portland were a team of runs. Their current six-game unbeaten streak across all competitions follows on the heels of a six-game run in which they notched just one victory. They've also put together a run in which they lost only once in seven games, then followed it up by winning just two of their next 10.
It's a weird group that's prone to going sideways for months at a time, but they've been even-keeled since moving Nagbe central. Portland are still as likely to lose the possession battle as they are to win it, but they've become much better at turning the chances they do generate into meaningful ones, and have won the expected goals battle in each of the six games since Nagbe's been a full-time central midfielder.
What Dallas will do: Play quick and direct
Dallas get a lot of praise for their flair, but said flair is mostly the product of the individual brilliance of Diaz and his wingers, Fabian Castillo and Michael Barrios. All three are wonderful dribblers, and Diaz is perhaps the league's best at picking out a through ball.
This is probably Pareja's ideal goal, and is emblematic of what FCD try to do with direct play:
Nearly half of Dallas's expected goals came off of short build-ups (two passes or less), which was second in the league behind the Dynamo. But unlike most short build-up teams, they don't rely on direct long balls and crosses to generate their chances; instead they try to put the ball on the foot of Diaz and have him play through the lines.
To that end, he led the league with 37 completed through balls this year. Next highest was 28, by Sporting KC's Benny Feilhaber.
Obviously playing through Diaz works. It's kind of a throwback to the way No. 10s used to play, but the classics never go out of style, do they?
How to solve it: Contain, don't overcommit
If you dive in on Diaz, he will skin you and create enough space to put it on a platter. However, if you just sit back and don't pressure him, he will stroll into the middle of the defense, pull you out of alignment, and pick out his runners while still on the move.
Portland's gameplan has to be to contain Diaz. Don't give him open looks at passing lanes, and don't go in wildly/recklessly, or he'll punish you with his elusiveness and creativity. He will also draw yellow cards out of careless challenges, which is something for Diego Chara in particular to avoid.
The Timbers also have to be sure they don't give the ball away cheaply, because those transitions are where Dallas are deadliest.
What Portland will do: Play through the big man
Nagbe's shift has gotten most of the publicity lately, and with good reason. He's been sensational as a box-to-box midfielder, shuttling the ball forward and forcing the defense to collapse to him before setting up the players around him, while at the same time providing energetic field coverage defensively.
The real key, though, is what that security on the ball allows for in midfield. And simply put: They're now completing more passes to center forward Fanendo Adi, and doing so in spots where he can do more damage.
He was dominant against Vancouver in the second leg of Portland's semifinal win, holding off the 'Caps central defense and completing passes seemingly at his leisure:
Green lines are completed passes, yellow are key passes (passes that lead to a shot), and blue is an assist.
Because Portland are now able to reliably play the ball through midfield on the ground, Adi's no longer being asked to contest aerial after aerial (he's good, but not great in the air). Instead they're playing to his feet, and he's repaying that faith by getting everybody around him involved.
How to solve it: Coax the long ball
This is easier said than done, but Dallas have a ray of hope thanks to the absence of both Diego Valeri and Rodney Wallace thanks to yellow-card accumulation. Valeri will probably be replaced by Will Johnson – who loves to hit the long ball – while Wallace's spot is probably going to go to Lucas Melano, who will play inverted on the left.
Melano is a good if not necessarily productive player, but he doesn't have the same kind of chemistry with Adi that Wallace does. All those clever flicks and little slip passes the big man produces don't mean much if there's nobody on the receiving end.
What's it all mean?
This has "cagey, cautious" affair written all over it. Portland know very well that a scoreless draw at home in the first leg is just fine – look at what they did to Vancouver, right?
Dallas, meanwhile, will want to pack it in and hit on the counter. They've always been comfortable doing that, so why stop now?
