Pick 'Em was not kind to me last week, as I went 0-for-2 on my non-home-team picks, and home teams overall went 5-2-2. Add in a 1-1 record on Saturday, and here's where things stand:
Home teams have won 61 of 112 games so far. I have correctly picked 58 of 112 games -- but am 0-for-3 when I choose something other than a home team victory.
Betting on MLS is a fool's errand, folks.
Here are my picks for Heineken Rivalry Week:
- Philadelphia smash D.C. United tonight (7 pm ET; Unimas)
- NYCFC get their first-ever win over RBNY on Saturday (3 pm ET; FOX)
- Chicago get their second win of the season over Houston
- Toronto FC pull out of their slump against Columbus
- New England get all three against FC Dallas
- Montreal go down to Orlando City and get a point
- Sporting hold serve at home against RSL
- The Rapids get another road point, this time at Seattle
- Portland end their slump with a win over Vancouver
- LA keep rolling with full points against San Jose
As you can see in the video embedded above, I think tonight's game is a big one for Steve Birnbaum (and Bobby Boswell). Everything Philly does runs through C.J. Sapong, and there's no No. 9 in the league to match up against -- especially because the movement of the other Union attackers like Chris Pontius, Tranquillo Barnetta and Sebastien Le Toux is so good.
- UPDATE: Birnbaum held his own, but United got beat at the back post deep into second-half stoppage time as the Union took a 1-0 win.
Here's a look at the rest of the games:
An Open Letter to NYC
A few weeks back on ExtraTime Radio, when NYCFC were sitting at 0-1-4 at home, I gave them a zero percent chance of making the playoffs. I believed then, and still do, that if you can't protect your home turf you can't make the postseason. It's been axiomatic through MLS history.
In the four games since they've gone 3-0-1, including Wednesday's precious point at Toronto FC while using mostly a "B" team. They are clearly a better team than they were a month ago (it's worth noting that's when Patrick Vieira abandoned the 3-4-3 he'd been toying with), and it's also clear they're a better team on the road than at home.
Saturday's home game against RBNY is a chance to A) continue the hot streak, B) put an end to their home woes with their second straight win at Yankee Stadium, and C) log their first-ever rivalry win over their next-door neighbors.
NYCFC may, at this point, be a bad match-up for the Red Bulls. Vieira likes to play through the middle, but the team's attacking thrust tends to come from speedy/quick wingers (Khiry Shelton & Tommy McNamara), and relentlessly overlapping fullbacks (R.J. Allen & Ronald Matarrita). New York have struggled against that kind of mix since the start of last season, and were saved against Chicago's blend of the same only by some excellent emergency defending by Aurelien Collin:
That's a great play, but it's not the type of thing you want to have to rely upon agains and again when you're facing the likes of David Villa. Eventually he will outsmart you and get a look, and those looks turn into goals.
I'll also be watching: The space behind Matarrita. He's as much a liability in defense as he is an asset in attack, and I'd expect Lloyd Sam to be a little more advanced than usual, and to get a ton of the ball on that flank.
Get It Together
TFC held it all together through their 8-game road trip to start the season, then had the chance to put some distance between themselves and the chasing pack with a home heavy schedule the rest of the season. And naturally they've taken advantage of that by going 1-1-1 and... yeah. Nothing's ever easy with the Reds.
That said, they haven't really played all that badly if you go by the eye test and -- more importantly -- the underlying metrics:
A couple of things here. First is that Zardes's main job right now is to be available in spots where the Galaxy need hold-up play. Sometimes that means doing traditional center forward things in and around the 18, but because of A) his mobility and comfort on the wings, and B) Keane and Dos Santos's natural inclination to get into that central channel, Zardes sometimes has to move out wide to become an actual center forward. This is why Landon Donovan and Dan Gargan called the new Galaxy lineup a "4-3-whatever" in a recent pregame show.
Second is that the Quakes won't just let him whip crosses across the six-yard box and leave the back post undefended. They'll be far more compact and organized, and in David Bingham have one of the league's most aggressive 'keepers in controlling the box.
Still though, LA generally find a way at home. And with Dos Santos probably playing with some level of blood lust given El Tri's Copa America situation, I'd expect the home team to drop an anvil on the visitors.
I'll also be watching: Daniel Steres has had trouble keeping track of clever forwards inside the 18 this year. Daniel, meet Chris Wondolowski.
One more thing:
View post on imgur.com
Strike hard. Strike fast. No mercy.
Happy weekending, everyone.
