National Writer: Charles Boehm

América or Columbus: Which champion is more likely to win Leagues Cup?

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The 2024 Leagues Cup group stage is in the books. Yet for two of the tournament’s leading contenders, it’s only just begun.

As their respective leagues’ reigning champions, the Columbus Crew and Club América were granted byes to the knockout phase, and kick off their campaigns in the Round of 32 on Friday. The Crew host Sporting Kansas City at Lower.com Field (7:30 pm ET | Apple TV - Free), while Las Águilas meet Atlas FC at Snapdragon Stadium (10 pm ET | Apple TV - Free), future home of San Diego FC.

There’s another notable perk for campeones: Columbus will enjoy hosting preference for almost the entire tourney, while América are assured of staying in California until the semifinals. While their MLS and LIGA MX colleagues were competing in group play, these two stayed sharp with a few friendly exhibitions vs. English sides, both beating Aston Villa and América falling to Chelsea FC in Atlanta.

Oh, and they’ve also been up to significant transfer business this summer. The Crew pulled off an eyebrow-raising trade to acquire fullback DeJuan Jones from New England, signed French central midfielder Dylan Chambost and brought in defender Andrés Herrera on loan from River Plate. Earlier in the summer, América strengthened an already-fearsome squad by splashing out many millions to acquire the likes of Érick Sánchez, Igor Lichnovsky and Alan Cervantes, and in those cases simultaneously weakening league rivals to boot.

So, will this potent duo march through the bracket and clash in the Leagues Cup final exactly one month before they lock horns in the 2024 Michelob Ultra Campeones Cup? Which one has a better shot of securing the hardware that Lionel Messi & Co. hoisted a year ago? Let’s take a look.

After tasting bitter heartbreak in the Concacaf Champions Cup final at Pachuca on June 1, the Crew defied the heretofore reliable history of MLS hangovers following deep continental runs, rattling off a 6W-2L-1T stretch in league play – during which they outscored their opponents 26-8 – to storm up the standings.

Though they unexpectedly went winless in their final two games (vs. Charlotte and at Atlanta) before the Leagues Cup break, Wilfried Nancy’s group have looked nigh unbeatable for long stretches, continuing to hone their coach’s expansive, ball-dominant game model, which not only carves open adversaries with regularity, but does so in a manner that makes them “suffer for a long time,” in the words of Nashville SC star Hany Mukhtar while MLS’s best congregated in central Ohio for All-Star week.

“I think they kind of innovate their style of play,” Portland Timbers playmaker Evander told the Columbus Dispatch. “When you play against them, it’s a really, really hard game. They just like to have the ball, and it’s really difficult when you face something like that.”

They’re led from the front by Cucho Hernández, the well-rounded striker who Tranksfermarkt reckons is the most valuable player on either the Crew’s or América’s rosters. The Colombian is tied for fifth in the MLS Golden Boot presented by Audi race, his 22 goal contributions ranks seventh in MLS and he’s safely among the league elite in goals per 90 minutes, Goals + Assists/90, Non-Penalty G+A/90 and more.

But tournament success isn’t just about talent or form. There’s also the question of the bracket itself. And that’s where things get tricky for the Yellow Football Team (more on that in a moment)...

The Mexico City giants are the top overall seed in Leagues Cup, a designation based on points gathered in the last 34 regular-season matches of 2023 – and Las Águilas remained excellent in this year’s Clausura (spring) campaign, finishing tops in the regular season table before going undefeated in the liguilla (playoffs) to win their second straight title and 15th overall.

Manager André Jardine has thrived during his year-plus in charge, amassing a 36W-11L-16D record and making the perennial powerhouse sturdy and stylish. América have long been one of the wealthiest, best-supported clubs in Mexico. The Brazilian – who led his country to a gold medal at the Japan Olympics three years ago – has ensured that they rarely, if ever, punch below their weight.

Here, though, we should probably note Columbus blew the doors off América in the group stage of last year’s Leagues Cup, a 4-1 win at LDC that essentially sparked the stretch-run surge that powered them to MLS Cup glory.

Las Águilas soar into this edition with a mostly healthy squad. US international Alejandro Zendejas, an FC Dallas product who’s been one of the Aguilas’ most consistent performers over the past few seasons and recently signed a new contract, is the only prominent contributor ruled out by injury, though there’s a chance that he could be available later in the tournament as he completes his recovery from a broken bone in his leg.

The rest of the team is familiar with US and Canadian soil, too, thanks to MLS alums Jonathan Dos Santos and Brian Rodríguez and a few Mexico internationals who’ve played plenty for El Tri north of the border.

The Bracketology

América’s path

Then there’s the road to the final. With all respect to their neighbors in the bracket’s upper-left quadrant, América’s path presently looks a whole lot less daunting than the Crew’s.

While Atlas will be a worthy opponent, as would the winner of the Portland-St. Louis match they’d face if they advance to the Round of 16, Jardine’s side will be clear favorites in both cases, and also in the quarterfinals vs. whoever emerges from the other side of that quadrant, be it Toluca, Houston Dynamo, Juárez or the Colorado Rapids.

América can expect hefty fan support in Cali, and for that matter anywhere they travel in the United States. Who might they meet in the semis? Will LAFC hold serve, or might Pumas UNAM or the LA Galaxy mount a run? None possess greater reserves of talent or winning pedigree than Las Águilas.

Columbus' path

The Crew, meanwhile, must face current holders Inter Miami – who beat them, without Messi or Luis Suárez, in June – or an in-form Toronto FC side should they defeat SKC as expected. Survive that test, and a daunting quarters showdown likely awaits – battle-tested Tigres UANL (whom Columbus memorably upset in the CCC semis) and their CCC final nemeses Pachuca are the leading contenders for that.

If Nancy & Co. can reach the semis, they might well have history with their opponent there, too. Top contenders in the other East quadrant include their Hell is Real rivals FC Cincinnati, a resurgent Philadelphia Union and LIGA MX elites Cruz Azul and Santos Laguna. From where we’re standing, it all adds up a marked advantage for América, at least on paper.

That said, these games must be won on grass, where Leagues Cup has thrown up a steady stream of surprises, both this summer and in last year’s edition. That’s the fun part, and it begins Friday night for the champs.