The US women's national team are in trouble.
Sounds ludicrous, right? After all, they still won Olympic Group G with a 2-0-1 record even after contriving to tie plucky Colombia 2-2 in Manaus on Tuesday, a game they had no business not winning easily. And they're still undefeated in 2016 at 16-0-2, with 57 goals scored and just 6 allowed.
But the margins get a great deal tighter in any tournament's knockout stages, especially in international women's soccer, where a small group of elite powers often don't get truly tested until the latter rounds, as you see with this event's final eight.
In that environment, sometimes problems don't get clearly identified until it's too late to fix them. And Tuesday's wobbles – the USWNT's performance earned tags like "sloppy," "a stumble" and "a wake-up call" in media coverage – were alarming to behold, regardless of the circumstances. It all adds up to make Friday's quarterfinal vs. Sweden (who are coached by former USWNT boss Pia Sundhage) a classic “trap game,” especially with hosts Brazil lurking on the same side of the bracket, a likely semifinal opponent.
“We started off really well, on our front foot, but I think we got complacent and that's when we got scored on,” winger Crystal Dunn said after the Tuesday's draw. “It's a lesson learned and obviously we're done with the group stage and we need to move forward.”
It's tempting to write off Colombia's goals, both Carolina Usme set-piece strikes that were misplayed by goalkeeper Hope Solo, as quirks. Las Chicas Superpoderosas only completed 13 passes in their attacking third and produced two goals from just three shots.
But even the biggest, most luxurious house needs a sturdy foundation, and the USWNT are built on Solo and her unsurpassed skills and experience between the posts. The field players in front of her are unaccustomed to seeing her make not one but two critical errors in a big game – and there's little room for doubt in their minds when they face a veteran Swedish side in Friday's quarterfinal (Noon ET; NBCSN, NBC Olympic Soccer Channel).
That one takes place in Brasilia, as the USWNT have bid farewell to the stifling heat of the Amazon and jetted more than 1,000 miles to the southeast to Brazil's capital city, where the temperatures are 10 to 20 degrees cooler and the humidity levels cut in half.
But the trip to Manaus could yet have a sting in the tail. At the 2014 men's World Cup, nearly every team that played at Arena Amazonia lost their next match, with Portugal the only team to buck the trend, one widely attributed to the draining effect of exertions in the jungle climate.
The USWNT are as well-equipped as anyone to overcome “the curse of Manaus,” though, relying on sophisticated recovery methods and the deepest roster in this Olympic tournament. US coach Jill Ellis has managed her team's minutes carefully to this point, with Solo and defenders Becky Sauerbrunn and Kelley O'Harathe only players to take part in every minute of the three games to date.
“I think we're good,” said Megan Rapinoe on Tuesday. “We were able to rest quite a few players tonight, which was huge. Obviously Manaus is not easy on the body, being as hot as it is. But I think everyone's feeling good and we'll be ready to go in Brasilia.”
But that prompts another question: Just what is Ellis' best XI?
She's made her favored back four pretty clear: O'Hara and Meghan Klingenberg on the corners and Sauerbrunn paired with Julie Johnston in the middle. But Johnston hasn't played since the opener due to a groin problem, leaving doubts as to whether she'll win her spot back from Whitney Engen in the quarters.
"Every journey is different. We're ready to play."
— U.S. Soccer WNT (@ussoccer_wnt) August 10, 2016
It all continues on FRIDAY: #USAvSWE, 12pm ET #OneNationOneTeampic.twitter.com/U3hbRxfWd3
Up top, captain Carli Lloyd should continue to rove behind lone striker Alex Morgan, even though the duo have only scored three goals total in Brazil. Out wide, it's still Dunn competing with teenage sparkplug Mallory Pugh for the spot opposite Tobin Heath, who was rested vs. Colombia. That one looks like a toss-up.
As for the critical engine room pairing behind Lloyd? It's a muddle.
Close friends and longtime youth national teammates Morgan Brian and Lindsey Horan seemed to have struck up a firm partnership in that spot during the USWNT's impressive Olympic qualifying campaign. Yet Brian and newcomer Allie Long have started two of the three games in Brazil so far. Ellis' approval of Long's efforts could be seen in Long earning US Soccer's official “Woman of the Match” honor for the France match – a pick that surprised and confused many other observers.
Brian was the final piece in the USWNT puzzle at the World Cup last summer, as the team hit full stride when she locked down the holding mid role in the knockout stages. But if Long is the new favorite, it forces Brian to adjust her own play, and not necessarily for the better.
Fatigue concerns have given Ellis good reason to chop and change thus far. But if she doesn't get the mix right vs. Sweden – who held the US to a scoreless draw in Canada last summer – it will further expose her team to the risk of a catastrophic quarterfinal upset.
