OK, for all the soccer mathematicians out there, here is the equation coach Bob Bradley needs to balance for the U.S. national team in its vital World Cup qualifier against Honduras Saturday night.
Bradley wants the U.S. team to come out and play aggressively and avoid a slow start, something that has plagued the USA on the road, especially in the CONCACAF final round hexagonal.
But Bradley also wants his team to avoid taking yellow cards, which could bench key players in next Wednesday night's qualifier against Costa Rica in Washington, D.C. That's a game the U.S. might need a result from if they don't qualify in San Pedro Sula.
Add the fact Honduras is expected to come out flying because it can taste its first World Cup appearance since 1982. Millions of Hondurans -- there are almost 8 million -- will put aside their troubles for about two hours. The country has been in political turmoil since deposed president Manuel Zeyala secretly returned to the country and wound up holed up in the Brazilian embassy last month -- and root for their beloved catrachos.
So, it will not be an easy task at all at Estadio Olimpico Metropolitano, which Bradley said will be "electric." And oh yes, the Hondurans are a perfect 8-0-0 at home during this qualifying campaign.
"The main thing that we have talked a little bit about and are very aware of is the fact that this game means everything to Honduras and to its people and that the atmosphere in the stadium will be loud, passionate and exciting," he said. "We have seen that in other places, so we draw the parallels and draw up on those experiences. I think that will work well for us."
Eight U.S. players enter the match riding yellow cards. And some of them are key to the U.S. success -- standout midfielder Landon Donovan, team captain and central defender Carlos Bocanegra, forward Jozy Altidore and holding midfielder Ricardo Clark, the goal-scoring hero of the win in Trinidad & Tobago Sept. 9.
Being a victory away from reaching for the World Cup an unprecedented sixth consecutive time, Bradley is expected to go with his "A" team, although he sounded like he was considering tweaking his lineup here and there.
Bradley said "going in, it's an opportunity to play aggressively, to know from the start that playing for the first goal, being aggressive, trying to put Honduras on the defensive would all be things we would like to accomplish.
"The yellow card situation is a challenging one. I think that we have to find balance in this. In some cases, that includes players that play the same position who maybe are both carrying yellow cards, making some decisions in those ways."
Those same eight players have been carrying yellows the past two games, victories against bottom feeders El Salvador and Trinidad and Tobago. It is a testament to the team's discipline that the players avoided yellow cards in both matches.
Just imagine the U.S. playing without Donovan, its best player, in its most important qualifier if he receives another yellow.
Shutter the thought.
"Our discipline is important," Bradley said. "We are very pleased that in the last two games we didn't pick up any yellow cards and so we have to once again make sure that our players understand that it will work in our favor as we play through this match."
But those games produced a pair of tepid victories -- 2-1 against El Salvador at home and 1-0 at Trinidad -- but still good enough for the full six points. The U.S. hasn't looked like the dominant side many of its observers expected it to be during qualifying, especially after its great success in the FIFA Confederations Cup in June.
The USA can qualify via three ways:
• If they win, they're in.
• If Costa Rica loses, regardless what transpires in the U.S. match, they're in.
• And if the USA draw and the Costa Ricans tie or lose, they're in.
"Ideally we can finish up things Saturday," Bradley said in a conference call Wednesday. "But again, there are factors in all of this that are sometimes out of our control. It's been a very tight final round. ... But the opportunity to go there and play to win and come away with three points is a great challenge, one that we are embracing. I think the players are ready for it. We're going to go for it with everything we have knowing that obviously we still have the home game to follow."
That home game is one of two safety nets the USA would prefer not to use. If they can't book a spot for South Africa here, a draw with the Costa Ricans at RFK Stadium will clinch a World Cup berth.
If that doesn't work and the USA finish fourth, they would play the fifth-place South American side in a home-and-home series in November, right smack in the middle of the MLS Cup Playoffs. The opponent could be underachieving Argentina. That's one foe no CONCACAF team would like to tackle, not with the likes of the fabulous Lionel Messi and Carlos Tevez gunning for goals.
That should be motivation enough -- even if it is based on fear -- to get things finished up as quickly as possible.
One thing is certain about Saturday: Panamanian referee Roberto Moreno will work the middle of a U.S. match for the fifth time during qualifying and the third time in the hexagonal. The USA have a 3-1 record with Moreno in charge, the last match being the 2-1 loss in Mexico City Aug. 12.
Bradley downplayed Moreno's presence.
"The pool of officials that we typically see in qualifying is usually pretty small," he said. "And so in that respect, CONCACAF has challenges at times on who to put at different games. Beyond that we're focusing only on tendencies of referees, things that we see in terms of how they call games, and making sure our team is aware of the tendencies and experiences that we've had.
"It's always going to be necessary in these games to put an emphasis on the discipline in our team. These are the things we really focus on because that's the part that we can control."
And one last thing. while the U.S. has struggled at the legendary Estadio Saprissa in Costa Rica through the years, the USA have enjoyed considerable success in Honduras. They're 2-1-1 in four games in the Central American country (2-0-1 in qualifiers). Their most recent game was a 2-1 World Cup qualifying win on March 28, 2001. Clint Mathis, now with Real Salt Lake, fired home a brilliant free kick in the waning minutes to lift the U.S. to its first triumph in Central America in 11-1/2 years.
While what transpired eight years ago is like a lifetime in international soccer, the U.S. knows that winning down here is not impossible.
A victory certainly would make life the team's life a whole lot easier.
Michael Lewis covers soccer for the New York Daily News and is editor of BigAppleSoccer.com. He can be reached at SoccerWriter516@aol.com. Views and opinions expressed in this column are the author's, and not necessarily those of Major League Soccer or MLSnet.com.
