What Expected Goals can tell us about Week 1 in MLS

Last week, we told you that Expected Goals can tell you the objective quality of the goalscoring opportunities your team creates.

This week, we can take a look at the values from Week 1 and draw conclusions on each team's performance over the weekend thanks to data provided by Opta.

One of the most notable results came in LA, as FC Dallas visited the Galaxy and came away with a 2-1 win. The expected goals number that came out of that game told a story about how one team finished low-quality chances and another missed on high-quality ones.

The Galaxy ended the game with an expected goals output of 1.65, meaning that based on the quality of their chances they would've been expected to score 1.65 goals. .78 of that 1.65 came from Giovani dos Santos' penalty kick, which was the Galaxy's only goal on the day.

Of course scoring 1.65 goals is not possible but it's clear that LA's finishing was not precise. Perhaps the biggest miss of the day came in the 64th minute, as Jermaine Jones' header hit the post. That shot had an xG value of .41, one of the highest of the weekend.

Meanwhile, FC Dallas benefited from some sterling finishing as they finished the game with an xG output of just .45. The goals from Maxi Urruti and Kellyn Acosta were a couple of the most unlikely from the weekend.

Elsewhere, the San Jose Earthquakes dominated the Montreal Impact even more than the scoreline would indicate and New York City FC were unlucky to not came away with at least a point against Orlando City SC.

There are two key facts to keep in mind when looking at the figures below. Penalties have an xG value of .78 which helps explain the high values from D.C. United and Toronto FC. Also own goals are not factored into the xG model so the New York Red Bulls did not add to their xG value with Anton Walkes' game-winning own goal.