The Supporters’ Shield will be clinched, the Golden Boot will be decided and the final two playoff berths will finally be locked up.
I’m not sure how it’ll play out, but I do know one thing: Decision Day is going to be one hell of a ride.
Here’s a full rundown of the top stories heading into the final week of the 2016 MLS regular season:
Supporters’ Shield Up for Grabs
After briefly relinquishing their lead, FC Dallas regained control of the Supporters’ Shield race on Sunday, when they beat the Seattle Sounders 2-1 to leapfrog the Colorado Rapids – who lost 1-0 at Portland – in the overall standings.
Dallas now lead the Shield race by two points over Colorado. They need only a draw at LA on Sunday to clinch the Shield, as they’d hold the tiebreaker over the Rapids if both teams finish with 60 points.
That draw won’t exactly be easy to come by, however. Dallas will be without star midfielder Mauro Diaz, who will reportedly miss the rest of the season and a healthy chunk of next year after injuring his Achilles on Sunday. Midfielder Kellyn Acosta also left Sunday’s match in the first half due to a hip injury and was reportedly using one crutch in the locker room following the game.
Dallas have a middling record in games that Diaz doesn’t start, going 3-4-2 in nine such contests this year.
Adding insult to injury, LA are one of the best teams in the league at home. The Galaxy are 8-1-7 at StubHub Center this year and 42-6-18 at their Southern California facility over the last four MLS regular seasons. That’s an absurd record for Dallas to overcome, even if FCD did manage an extra time win at LA in the Open Cup semifinals earlier this year.
They’ll likely need that draw to win the Shield, too. A loss would open the door for Colorado, who will be heavy favorites to win their finale at home against last-place Houston. If the Rapids, who beat Houston 3-2 in Texas on Oct. 8 and are unbeaten at Dick’s Sporting Goods Park this year, win on Sunday and Dallas lose, the Shield will head to Denver.
Wild, Wild West
The top half of the Western Conference playoff bracket is nearly set: Dallas and Colorado will occupy some combination of the top two seeds, and LA is locked in at No. 3.
The bottom half, however, is about as crazy as it comes, with four teams battling for three spots. Real Salt Lake currently hold the fourth seed with 46 points, with the Seattle Sounders one point back in fifth and Sporting Kansas City clinging to the sixth spot with 44 points. Portland are actually tied with SKC on points and wins, but trail Sporting by one measly goal in the goal differential tiebreaker.
Any of these four teams could miss the playoffs, and any of them could finish with the fourth seed and host a Knockout Round match.
RSL and Seattle actually play each other on Sunday, with the Sounders set to host Salt Lake at CenturyLink Field. Either of those clubs would clinch the fourth spot with a win. RSL would secure a postseason spot with a tie, while the Sounders would miss out on the postseason if they draw and SKC and Portland both win.
That’s not a comforting thought for Seattle fans, but the odds do appear to be in their favor. Despite losing at Dallas on Sunday and drawing at home against Houston last Wednesday, the Sounders are still one of the hottest teams in MLS. They’re historically excellent against RSL in Washington, too, posting a 6-2-2 all-time home record against them in Seattle and winning their last five home contests against the Utah club.
Sporting Kansas City, who played scuffling RSL to a scoreless draw in Salt Lake on Sunday, will likely be feeling pretty good about their chances, too. SKC will host the already-eliminated San Jose Earthquakes in their finale, and will be favored to take all three points against their Bay Area foes. A win would take SKC to 47 points on the season and would clinch a playoff berth for Peter Vermes’ club, as one of RSL or Seattle are guaranteed to fall short of that total.
The Timbers would also clinch a berth with a win, though that’ll be a big ask. Portland play at Vancouver on Sunday, and, even though the ‘Caps are already eliminated from playoff contention, they’ll be fighting for the Cascadia Cup and would love nothing more than to spoil their rivals’ season. The Timbers have also been awful away from home this year, posting a 0-10-6 record in their 16 road contests.
Add a hard fought 1-1 CCL draw against Saprissa on Wednesday – which eliminated the reigning MLS Cup champions – and the suspensions of key players Liam Ridgewell and Diego Chara for Sunday into the mix and things only look tougher for Portland.
Seeding at Stake in the East
Mercifully, the East picture is much, much clearer. Five of the six playoff places have already been booked, with Philadelphia holding a three-point lead on New England for the final berth.
The Union are looking pretty secure, too. For them to miss out on the playoffs, they’d have to lose at home to the Red Bulls, New England would have to beat Montreal in Foxborough and the Revs would have to make up a 12-goal margin in goal difference.
While the field is all but officially set, East seeding is very much up in the air. The Red Bulls, who hold a three-point lead on second-place NYCFC and are well ahead in the goal difference tiebreaker, will likely take the top spot. That leaves NYCFC and Toronto to battle for the second seed, with NYCFC, who hold a one-point lead on the Reds, needing a win against Columbus or a Toronto loss/draw at home against Chicago to clinch a Knockout Round bye.
Seeds No. 4-6 will be entirely up for grabs on Sunday. D.C. currently hold the fourth spot with 46 points, but they’re trailed closely by Montreal, who have 45. United will secure a home Knockout Round contest with a win at Orlando. Should they falter, they could get leapfrogged by Montreal, who play at New England.
Philadelphia can’t host a Knockout Round match, but they would move up to fifth – setting up a playoff matchup with D.C. – if they beat the Red Bulls and the Impact lose at New England on Sunday.
Golden Boot Goes Down to the Wire
Barring a historic performance on Sunday from Ignacio Piatti, we know that the Golden Boot is headed to New York. Whether or not it lands on the red or blue side of town? That remains to be seen.
The Red Bulls’ Bradley Wright-Phillips claimed sole possession of the lead on Sunday, scoring two goals in his club’s 3-2 home win over Columbus Crew SC to move to 23 strikes on the season. That’s one ahead of NYCFC’s David Villa, who scored in a 3-1 loss at D.C. to move his season total to 22.
Villa will likely need to outscore Wright-Phillips by two goals on Sunday to take home the Golden Boot, as the Spanish star, who has three assists this year, trails BWP by two in the assists tiebreaker.
Wright-Phillips, who won the Golden Boot in 2014, has the advantage. But with both players on fire – Villa has five goals in his last three games, Wright-Phillips has five in his last four – we could see some more fireworks on Sunday.
